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ReachTEL: 58-42 to Labor in Ashgrove

A poll conducted last night shows Campbell Newman headed for a drubbing in his seat of Ashgrove – assuming the Labor candidate he faces is the defeated member from 2012, Kate Jones.

ReachTEL has published a devastating poll for Campbell Newman, finding him trailing 58-42 in his seat of Ashgrove – albeit that the poll presumes former member Kate Jones will again be the candidate for Labor, which is yet to be confirmed. Jones is recorded as having an absolute majority on the primary vote with 51.1%, with Newman a very distant second on 36.6%, followed by the Greens on 5.3% and Palmer United on 3.9%. Jones’ lead on two-party preferred is 58-42. Newman is rated a good Premier by 36.7% of respondents and a poor one by 47.5%. Further questions tell us more about the fact that the poll was commissioned by public service union Together Queensland (“How important do you believe it is for your local member Campbell Newman to stand up for higher wages for the people of Ashgrove?”) than what might be going on in the minds of local voters. It was conducted just last night, from a sample of 690.

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  • 1
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    Further questions tell us more about the fact that the poll was commissioned by public service union Together Queensland (“How important do you believe it is for your local member Campbell Newman to stand up for higher wages for the people of Ashgrove?”) than what might be going on in the minds of local voters.

    That gave me a laugh William, thanks. Interesting times for Campbell Newman. Is Kate Jones likely to be the candidate this time around?

  • 2
    daretotread
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    I think Kate will be the candidate. She has kept a very low profile until now but the ALP has this week registered a domain name katejones

  • 3
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Murmurings heard among LNP faithful, “we will be lucky to hold 7 seats in SE Qld.”

  • 4
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    ru,

    “friggin” optimists!

  • 5
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    The ALP can pass them the keys to the tarago in that case.

  • 6
    ruawake
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Even the Courier Mail has to publish it. :lol:

    Qld premier faces electoral oblivion: poll

  • 7
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    This is among my favourite polls of recent times.

    Its pretty clear: get a new seat, or you wont be the next Premier, Newman.

    Whats that, no one is giving up their safey? LOL.

  • 8
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, September 5, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    Really, result is not greatly out of line with what should be expected based on other Ashgrove polling that hasn’t named a Labor candidate. I’m a little cautious when a poll is commissioned by a non-neutral source but recent Qld union polls that have been published generally have scrubbed up OK when tested against more neutral efforts. I’d take them more seriously than the recent UMR internal poll reports which in my view are just bin fodder.

    I’d ignore everything from Q3 down in this poll though. Q3 is misleading by omission and selectivity, and once it is in the mix it taints the rest.

  • 9
    Raaraa
    Posted Saturday, September 6, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    I’m having a hard time understanding the fact that the youth vote is rather more conservative than that of the middle aged group, and it makes the 51-65 group look really progressive.

    Same can be said about female voters vs male voters.

  • 10
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Fool me once, shame on Campbell. Fool me twice, shame on Ashgrove.

    Like Kevin Bonham, I find it hard to believe a change in candidate would harm Labor’s chances. Like Redcliffe voters, Ashgrove will be voting against someone, not for Jones.

  • 11
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    I should clarify: I was expecting a slightly more favourable response if Jones was named than if not and basing my expectations accordingly. I’d expect it to be worth at least a couple of points, not because Jones is necessarily a stellar candidate but just because any former sitting member has name recognition.

    Actually I forgot that there was already one poll naming Jones – 7 News ReachTEL in July had 56:44 with Jones (53:47 without naming candidates).

    It might also be that naming Newman deflates the LNP vote!

  • 12
    Socrates
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    Fair comment, Kevin. I should have said I find it hard to believe a change in Labor candidate from Jones would have sufficient impact to change the result.

  • 13
    trawler
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes

    #ReachTEL Poll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 51 (-1) ALP 49 (+1) #qldpol #auspol

  • 14
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    This poll was commissioned by Together Queensland so this from Possum from a year ago might give some sort of clue as to what the questions were being used for. He wouldn’t ask them without a very solid reason

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2013/04/22/anatomy-of-a-modern-campaign/

  • 15
    lefty e
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    #ReachTEL Poll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 51 (-1) ALP 49 (+1) #qldpol #auspol

    Bloody hell. Will the Newman government set the benchmark most spectacular one-term collapse of the modern era?

    Watch the panic button get pushed when LNP backbenchers start to realise its not just Newman in trouble.

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