A poll conducted last night shows Campbell Newman headed for a drubbing in his seat of Ashgrove – assuming the Labor candidate he faces is the defeated member from 2012, Kate Jones.
ReachTEL has published a devastating poll for Campbell Newman, finding him trailing 58-42 in his seat of Ashgrove – albeit that the poll presumes former member Kate Jones will again be the candidate for Labor, which is yet to be confirmed. Jones is recorded as having an absolute majority on the primary vote with 51.1%, with Newman a very distant second on 36.6%, followed by the Greens on 5.3% and Palmer United on 3.9%. Jones’ lead on two-party preferred is 58-42. Newman is rated a good Premier by 36.7% of respondents and a poor one by 47.5%. Further questions tell us more about the fact that the poll was commissioned by public service union Together Queensland (“How important do you believe it is for your local member Campbell Newman to stand up for higher wages for the people of Ashgrove?”) than what might be going on in the minds of local voters. It was conducted just last night, from a sample of 690.
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.
The Poll Bludger, who is known to his mother as William Bowe, can be contacted at: pollbludger-at-bigpond.com.
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