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Federal Politics 2013-

Sep 19, 2015

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Two-party: full preference estimate

# % Proj. Swing
ANDREW HASTIE (Liberal) 36933 54.4% 54.8% -7.0%
MATT KEOGH (Labor) 30989 45.6% 45.2% +7.0%

Primary vote

# % Proj. Swing
Liberal 34291 46.4% 46.7% -4.4%
Labor 26544 35.9% 36.2% +9.5%
Greens 4479 6.1% 6.0% -1.4%
Palmer United 2264 3.1% 2.3% -4.6%
Family First 531 0.7% 0.8% -0.5%
Australian Christians 2280 3.1% 2.8% -0.3%
Others 3519 4.8% 5.1% +1.5%
Formal 73908
% of enrolled voters 65.5%
% of projected turnout 89.2%
Booths counted (of 46) 46

Two-party: raw count

# % Prefs Pref. Swing
LIBERAL 40600 54.9% 48.3% -0.6%
LABOR 33307 45.1% 51.7% +0.6%
Formal 73907
% of enrolled voters 65.5%
% of projected turnout 89.2%
Booths counted (of 46) 46

City of Armadale booths

# % Proj. Swing
LIBERAL 15490 49.2% 49.2% -9.3%
LABOR 16025 50.8% 50.8% +9.3%
Booths counted (of 18) 18

City of Mandurah booths

# % Proj. Swing
LIBERAL 10868 58.3% 58.3% -3.3%
LABOR 7765 41.7% 41.7% +3.3%
Booths counted (of 10) 10

Other booths

# % Proj. Swing
LIBERAL 10575 59.5% 59.5% -6.7%
LABOR 7199 40.5% 40.5% +6.7%
Booths counted (of 18) 18

Concluding summary

In political terms, the result is anti-climactic, in that the swing is neither a triumph nor a disaster for either side. However, it’s interesting to note that the swing was concentrated in Armadale, given that a lot more suburban territory cut from the same socio-economic cloth sits beyond the electorate’s northern boundaries, in Hasluck and the newly drafted seat of Burt, both of which are marginal Liberal. Another standout factor from the results is that the non-major party vote was down on the last election, contrary to the usual by-election form. The drop in the Greens vote can only partly be explained by competition from Animal Justice and the Pirate Party, and the loss of two third of the Palmer United vote wasn’t entirely matched by an increase for other right-of-centre minor parties. Contrary to the indications of some polling, Labor’s share of preferences was essentially unchanged.

Live count commentary

10.15pm. Results above are final for the night, there evidently being no counting of postals this evening. The results include two pre-poll voting centres – Armadale, which is included in the booth-matching calculations as the centre was in use at the 2013 election, and Mandurah, which isn’t and wasn’t.

9.01pm. The Armadale pre-poll voting centre — which along of the PPVCs I’m including in my booth-matching results projections, since it’s the only one that was in use at the 2013 election — has pushed the Labor swing over 7%. It will be interesting to see if there’s a general pattern of Labor performing better on pre-polls, since part of the vote will have been cast before the leadership change. Conversely, this may just be the oft-cited Armadale swing in action.

8.44pm. Two more results added, typical of the whole in being a strong result for Labor from Armadale and a weak one from Mandurah.

8.41pm. Still to report: two large booths at Halls Head in Mandurah; two Armadale booths, plus two others are yet to report two-party preferred; and in the vicinity of Armadale, full results from Harrisdale, and two-party from Byford.

8.32pm. More Armadale-heavy data has added a further increment to the Labor swing, although outstanding booths from Halls Head in Mandurah may well rein it back.

8.27pm. The addition of some further results from Armadale, where the swing is approaching 10%, has added half a point to the projected Labor swing.

8.22pm. I’ve been progressively adding newly reporting booths without comment, there being no surprises.

8.02pm. A very soft result for the Greens, who have gone backwards, and the minor party vote in general. Modest though it may be, Labor has at least achieved its two-party swing off its own steam.

8.00pm. Contrary to my expectations, the results have come in at a bewilderingly fast clip. But the swing has stayed around 6%, and the impression of a swing strongest in Armadale and weakest in Mandurah has been consistent.

7.49pm. I strongly suspect the AEC has the Labor and Liberal vote in Boddington entered the wrong way round. Otherwise there’s been a 40% swing there.

7.42pm. Five booths in from Armadale and now and three for Mandurah, and so for the swing in the latter looks to be the smaller. Despite that, the swing projection has remained been pretty stable at around 6%.

7.32pm. Fair bit of surgery required there on my results display, but I think it’s in order now. The swing Labor looks to be headed for is about 6%. It doesn’t seem that their preference share has picked up at all.

7.18pm. A fairly solid 11 booths in now, and I’ve had the swing at around 8% for a little while now. Antony Green only says 6%, but he’s less aggressive than me in extracting projections from incomplete results.

7.10pm. Three booths have been added on the 2PP vote, and these results are now being used to project preference flows on to booths that have reported the primary vote only.

7.05pm. A bunch of booths in now, including a couple from the larger centres, and the swing is looking stable so far — but I’m still going off 2013 election preferences. I’ll sort that out in a minute.

6.53pm. Carcoola and Dandalup North booths added on primary vote — so still only booths from the smaller semi-rural centres.

6.35pm. Still a lot I’m trying to work out here, but we’ve got primary votes in from the Preston Beach booth, and from that very small data point I’m projecting a result in line with expectations.

6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Canning by-election count. The table below will be updated as the numbers are reported to track both the raw vote and projections based on booth-matching and preference trends. With 12 candidates in the count, progress might be a bit slow. There are some small semi-rural booths in the electorate, and we should be hearing from these first in about an hour.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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313 comments

313 thoughts on “Canning by-election live

  1. davidwh

    This is so exciting.

  2. confessions

    Green just outlined how irrelevant this by-election is. How and what to measure it against? As Green just said there are so many variables you can use. Pick your own angle for spin and run with it.

  3. ShowsOn

    Hastie demonstrated a Cory Bernardi level of wankerism over the last week, so while I suspect he will win I hope he is greeted in parliament with a big F U.

  4. Edwina StJohn

    Good to see Ramsay Bolton is here tonight

  5. Gary Sparrow

    ABC giving good reviews of Turnbull.

    Hurray for the ABC!

  6. davidwh

    I was joshing Fess 🙂

  7. Nart Man

    Jesus rode a Dinosaur

  8. confessions

    davidwh:

    Yes I knew you were. I’m just trying to hose down expectations for the thrill seekers. 😀

  9. Kevin Bonham

    I’ll be posting some comments at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/canning-anticlimax-live-plus-post-count.html (mainly to see what the interest level is like) and I’ll try to drop in here too.

  10. rossmcg

    Hi guys

    Been a long while since I was here, been travelling and doing other things

    Hastie strikes me as one of the most unlikely candidates I have seen. His campaign slogan is that he is not a politician. He most likely will be on Monday.

    I suspect that having decided his military career had stalled he started looking at his options and his main aim was probably to land a job as a ministerial staffer.

    he doesn’t strike me as the type who will have a lot of empathy with the socially disadvantaged of Armadale.

  11. ShowsOn

    I think Hastie should’ve mentioned his military service more.

  12. TPOF

    [Pick your own angle for spin and run with it.]

    That will be the story of tonight. For my part, anything less than a huge swing to Labor will be meaningless and can be put down to the Turnbull sugar hit. A big swing to Labor means that Turnbull’s ascension has no effect.

  13. confessions

    rossmcg:

    I was wondering what had happened to you.

  14. mexicanbeemer

    rossmcg

    I agree, the test I apply to a candidate is can I see them dealing with a personal issue like someone’s pension application was disallowed or can they bring about a project in the area.

    Hastie seems to have an attitude that he is above paper shufflers which indicates to me that he doesn’t see any point in procedure or developing policy.

  15. confessions

    TPOF:

    Same here.

  16. Roger Miller

    Hastie seems quite prepared to tell the voters of Canning what it is that they want.

  17. Roger Miller

    first numbers in

  18. Roger Miller

    135 votes counted

  19. dave

    Roger Miller@17

    Hastie seems quite prepared to tell the voters of Canning what it is that they want.

    abbott as PM would seem to have suited him more – and abbott’s khaki meme.

  20. rossmcg

    Confessions

    Nice to know I was missed

  21. Roger Miller

    I reckon he is going to sit on the back bench with not many friends for the next 12 months.

  22. WarrenPeace

    The impression I get of Hastie is it’s all about him.
    Just what’s needed in federal parliament an giant ego.

  23. alias

    Labor will achieve a 2 per cent swing at most.

  24. TPOF

    Hastie:

    ‘Just look at how good I am at doing this ‘I’m the servant of the voters of Canning’ shtick!’

  25. mexicanbeemer

    Roger

    I can see him sitting with Tony and Brommy, telling war stories and how he flew a chopper

  26. ShowsOn

    According to Andrew Hastie, the biggest threat to Australia isn’t the ALP it is the drug ice and the Theory of Evolution.

  27. confessions

    [I reckon he is going to sit on the back bench with not many friends for the next 12 months.]

    How do you figure that? He is surrounded by like-minded brethren in the partyroom.

  28. mexicanbeemer

    A 7% swing in what I am guessing are the small rural booths.

    The swing should still be above 5%

  29. mexicanbeemer

    Actually its most likely is a nursing home

  30. TPOF

    AEC showing a 13% swing to Labor. Turnbull’s GAWWWWNNNN!

  31. Roger Miller

    Kevin says Preston Beach

  32. mexicanbeemer

    I know its too late for tonight but in future would it be possible to include at the top of the articles the picture of the previous election booth results that we see in seat previews

  33. Travis Bickle

    On the one remotely serious booth in (I think we can ignore the PPV airport booths) there appears to be some movement to the ALP of about six percent at Preston Beach.

  34. JimmyDoyle

    Preston Beach voted 58-42 to the Liberals in 2013, so current number suggests only a small swing to Labor in that booth.

  35. Travis Bickle

    Antony saying eleven percent! On the Preston Beach numbers.

  36. alias

    ABC News 24 advertised a one-hour Canning special at 8pm. Nothing of the sort on air now.

  37. Travis Bickle

    Sorry, I misread that! The more useful booth by booth result (thanks sprocket) shows a swing away from Liberal party of a bit over %5.

  38. Travis Bickle

    It’s a booth with 119 votes, they can be pretty volatile if there’s a big swing on.

  39. confessions

    alias:

    The coverage of Canning by ABC is very poor.

    Didn’t we get live Griffith by-election coverage right the way through?

  40. JimmyDoyle

    confessions – ahh but everyone in the media thought the Libs were a shoe-in to win Griffith didn’t they?

  41. alias

    Sorry Confessions, don’t recall about Griffith – but surely after the events of the past week, the ABC’s dedicated 24 hour news service should be across this by-election with very complete coverage.

  42. mexicanbeemer

    To be fair to the ABC, the first hour of vote counting isn’t worth covering.

  43. JimmyDoyle

    It will be interesting to see what happens in the Armadale booths. Preston beach is a conservative part of the electorate, so not a bad swing for Labor to achieve, but it is a very small booth.

  44. TPOF

    At this stage, there is nothing on TV to report but blather. Better to have something else than presenters struggling to find something to say and coming out with complete inanities.

  45. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Settling in for thd night.