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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 31, 2016

Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The first Newspoll of the year records next to no change on voting intention, although Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground on preferred prime minister.

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The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.

UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).

A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2388 comments

2,388 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

  1. Diogenes

    Jason

    It’s not like Shorten is in a position to do anything about SA’s finances. He’s probably going to lose the next election anyway so Weatherill isn’t helping anyone other than himself to a bit of popularity.

    Unless he thinks targetting Shorten will get him a better deal from Turnbull…

  2. Kevin Bonham

    Waiting for the netsats to come out aaaaaaaages after the less useful BPM is annoying.

  3. pedant

    I rather thought that Mr Andrews had said that Victoria wouldn’t support an increase in the GST period. If that’s so, Mr Turnbull will be forced, if he wants to increase the GST, the own the biggest broken promise in Australian politics in the last 25 years: that the GST would only ever be increased with the agreement of all the States. This would be a very nice card for the ALP to hold going into an election campaign – unless some really dumb Labor Premier, for instance Mr Weatherill, makes it his business to provide the federal government with high level cover.

  4. bemused

    Thanks Imacca (from previous thread).

  5. JimmyDoyle

    [1739 of previous thread
    pedant
    I hope Mr Weatherill isn’t as confused in his thinking as these two comments would suggest. And given that it would appear that a conversation between Mr Weatherill and Mr Shorten has finally taken place, one might wonder why that didn’t happen before Mr Weatherill went public with comments so helpful to Mr Turnbull, his Treasurer and his government?
    ]

    Perhaps I’m simply dense, but I don’t see where the confusion is. Weatherill’s reasoning is that if the states are required to approve a GST increase, then they should get the money. This is money they desperately need to fund health and education services. If they won’t be getting the money (as Turnbull seems to have indicated will be the case) then there’s room for SA to become opposed to a GST increase (and for the record I’m opposed to any GST increase).

    Having said all that, I do admit I had not read Weatherill’s full comments over Gonski when I has my initial disagreement with your comment, and I do agree that if Weatherill had sincere doubts, he should have at least raised them privately with the federal party.

  6. pedant

    Mr Andrews has left himself a tiny bit of wiggle room for after the next election, but Queensland has also opposed a GST increase.

  7. TPOF

    Pedant

    [unless some really dumb Labor Premier, for instance Mr Weatherill, makes it his business to provide the federal government with high level cover.]

    That may be embarrassing for Labor, but in the absence of total agreement (including the non-Labor States and Territories) it would still be a breach. There needs to be 7 out of 7 for the (political) condition to be met. 6 out of 7 just does not cut it.

  8. Jason

    Diogenes
    You could be right on all counts! Jay is hardly an orphan Pyne Burningham and others in this state thought they’d get a better deal from Turnbull

  9. pedant

    JimmyDoyle @ 5: Noted. But I’d have to say I continue to be amazed at the propensity of politicians to open their mouths and let the wind blow their tongues around with no apparent thought about the likely consequences, including their quotes being used by their opponents in the coming election campaign. As Lee Kuan Yew once said on Australian television, there’s an old Chinese proverb: “One word goes out, four horses can’t drag it back”.

  10. pedant

    TPOF @ 7: Indeed, but it’s that much harder to be criticised for breaking a promise when you can point out that someone from the other side has been urging you on.

  11. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Improved polling results for Bill Shorten: I will take that, happily.

  12. Kevin Bonham

    If Shorten’s netsat is up as well then I’ll take that as further evidence that there was something wrong with the last ReachTEL’s calculations.

  13. JimmyDoyle

    1740 of previous thread
    Jason
    SA has problems with an aging population shrinking tax base and the people still expect services.
    ]

    Very true.

    Bourke stuffed up today by having a go at Weatherill as most of Federal ALP’s costings would be at the will of the senate.

    Despite the fact that I’m completely opposed to a GST increase, I think Weatherill’s positioning (given SA’s particular circumstances) on the GST is entirely reasonable. However his attack on Gonski-funding was very poor form. I don’t agree that Bourke stuffed up.

    Jay and those who follow him might want something a bit more reliable

    Maybe, but Weatherill still should’ve raised his doubts privately within the party.

  14. shea mcduff

    FWIW, from intro to Newspoll above.

    [The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation,..]

    Jay, and everybody else, should be kicking the GST to death.

  15. Leroy Lynch

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/uphill-battle-as-voters-reject-rise-in-gst-rate/news-story/323a67d0d7d34d98d7f99e52a16ceaf7
    [Uphill battle as voters reject rise in GST rate
    The Australian
    February 1, 2016 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Malcolm Turnbull faces a signif­icant challenge to convince voters to accept a higher GST as a central plank of any tax reform plan, with Newspoll revealing that a majority of voters opposes increasing the rate, even if it came with across-the-board tax cuts and compensation for low-income earners and welfare recipients.

    As federal parliament resumes tomorrow for the first sitting of the election year, Newspoll shows that the Prime Minister continues to enjoy a personal standing around six-year highs and the Coalition retains a 53 per cent to 47 per cent two-party lead over Labor.

    The Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, also points to a slight recovery for Bill Shorten, with his rating as preferred prime minister rising six points from his record lows to 20 per cent, although he remains massively behind­ Mr Turnbull, who is favoured by 59 per cent of voters.

    The poll of 1837 voters taken from January 28 to yesterday reveals­ that 54 per cent oppose raising the GST from 10 per cent to 15 per cent as part of a package that also involves income tax cuts for all income­ earners and compensation for low-income earners and welfare recipients.

    ……………..

    Today’s Newspoll shows voters continued to rank Mr Turnbull as the preferred prime minister by three to one over Mr Shorten. Mr Turnbull’s support eased one point to 59 per cent, while Mr Shorten bounced from his record lows to gain six points to 20 per cent. Mr Turnbull’s lead has narrowed slightly but he still enjoys a 39-point margin over Mr Shorten. By comparison, Mr Shorten had been four points ahead of Mr Abbott­ before he was toppled.

    Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance as prime minister rose one point to 53 per cent while dissatisfaction with him rose one point to 31 per cent. His net satisfaction rating, measuring the difference between those who are satisfied and those dissatisfied, was unchanged at 22 points.

    Mr Shorten will be buoyed by a lift in his satisfaction rating, which rose two points from his record low 23 per cent to 25 per cent, while those dissatisfied with him eased from 61 to 60 per cent. His net satisfaction rating improved from -38 to -35 points but is 57 points worse than Mr Turnbull.]

  16. Jason

    JimmyDoyle
    I too am opposed to a hike in the GST however since there a few options up for debate or otherwise I can only support a looking into what Weatherill has proposed.
    As for Jay raising things in private the “shoppies” put a lefty in charge and won an unwinnable election seems to me his judgement has been sound

  17. pedant

    Apart from anything else, Senator Dastyari has done a splendid job in the last couple of years in raising public consciousness of the way in which tax has become optional for big companies and the rich. This is all preparatory to the very reasonable position the federal ALP is trying to push that these loopholes ought to be closed tight before more regressive taxes are considered.

    Thanks, Mr Weatherill, for undermining two years of solid work.

  18. shea mcduff

    Jason
    [As for Jay raising things in private the “shoppies” put a lefty in charge and won an unwinnable election seems to me his judgement has been sound]
    Yep -generally.
    I loved his smackdown of the Farrell forces just before the last election but I do note that Malinauskas has received 2 promotions within the ALP in the last couple of months.

  19. Jason

    shea mcduff
    Malinauskas might be the heir to the throne but not yet!
    2018 might be another story

  20. Question

    [If Shorten’s netsat is up as well then I’ll take that as further evidence that there was something wrong with the last ReachTEL’s calculations.]

    KB, I multiplied the party breakdowns released with the poll by their primary vote, then worked backward to find the other/Palmer from the previous poll and applied the same proportion to the remaining primaries. It came out 29.2%. The 19.2% looks like a basic typo.

  21. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Shorten could be on the money with this policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-unveils-new-policies-designed-to-protect-workers-from-being-ripped-off-20160131-gmi4j3.html
    And he ups the ante on marriage equality.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/01/31/sex-marriage-pass-today-shorten/
    The Age editorial is far from being impressed by Morrison’s lead up to the budget.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/lack-of-open-debate-on-tax-reform-leaves-turnbull-government-failing-voters-20160131-gmi0r2.html
    Amanda Vanstone with good advice to Abbott, Bishop B and Ruddock to get out of it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fairness-apparently-a-missing-dimension-in-abbotts-political-calculations-20160129-gmgt3d.html
    Ross Gittins tells us that big business based economic policy won’t fly. He says there has never been a time when industrial relations reform has been less needed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/big-businessbiased-reform-wont-fly-20160130-gmhnct.html
    Tim Dick is of the opinion that there are more years of bile ahead before we get marriage equality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/more-years-of-bile-ahead-before-marriage-equality-becomes-a-reality-20160131-gmhxjh.html
    A good “View from the Street” today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-be-true-to-your-school-funding-20160131-gmhzr2.html
    You’ve gotta be joking! Mouth for hire Kate Carnell to become Small Business Ombudsman.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kate-carnell-quits-business-lobby-to-become-first-small-business-ombudsman-20160131-gmhyfe.html
    There is dismay over the federal government’s (lack of) response to the Child Abuse Royal Commission recommendations for a national redress scheme.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/31/child-sexual-abuse-support-groups-dismayed-over-national-redress-scheme
    Labor has finally weighed in on the Nick Ross allegations.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/01/31/false-balance-labor-demands-answers-from-abcs-mark-scott-over-nick-ross-secret-tape-revelations/

  22. BK

    Section 2 . . .

    Turning up the heat on climate denialists.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/tturning-up-the-heat-on-climate-denialists,8626
    Get rich quick! . . . oh wait!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/sport/sports-tech-firm-playup-in-liquidation-after-burning-70-million-of-highprofile-investor-funds-20160128-gmg8ue.html
    A good article on “coming out of the closet”.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/deconstructing-the-closet,8628
    Bob Ellis on the General Morrison/Malcolm Turnbull parallel cockup.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2016/01/31/the-morrison-parallel/
    NSW, the state of income inequality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-the-state-of-inequality-when-it-comes-to-income-20160131-gmhz58.html
    The Australian Crime Commission is getting down and dirty with returning “freedom fighters” and links to organised crime.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/foreign-fighters-grilled-by-crime-commission-as-organised-crime-links-increase-20160131-gmi2ym.html
    Remind me not to watch it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/reality/im-a-celebrity-2016-shane-warne-confirmed-as-star-contestant-20160131-gmi26p.html
    Stephen Dank promises that the Essendon saga is far from over.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/stephen-dank-warns-more-to-play-out-in-the-neverending-essendon-drugs-saga-20160131-gmi6zs.html
    Will this be a recipe for disastrous rorting?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/concern-as-private-training-colleges-to-compete-with-tafe-to-teach-hsc-courses-20160130-gmhmc3.html

  23. BK

    Section 3 . . . a tiny Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir sums up Trump pretty well.
    http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/m/g/f/e/i/image.gallery.galleryLandscape.940×628.gjrcxr.png/1454023858422.jpg
    Mark Knight on the opinion polls.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/aa3871bac1c08b3e94db78ead3e46276?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    Our two best cartoonists David Pope and David Rowe appear to still be on leave.

  24. Edwina StJohn

    When is Labor going to put poor ole Bill out of his misery? Surely someone has the decency to administer the decency shot?

  25. CTar1

    Esj – You could do it yourself but then you’d have no purpose for living.

  26. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    QUESTION – Many thanks for that. Most interesting. Sounds right that the last ReachTel contained a basic typo. It’s hilarious (in a rather sad way) that ReachTel got headlines all over this wide brown land about the plunge in Shorten’s popularity based upon a typo. Obviously, any other polls that ReachTel puts out should only be handled with forceps.

  27. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    ESJ – Nice to see that you’re still miserable. Keep it up (or should I say down).

  28. Darn

    [Edwina StJohn
    Posted Monday, February 1, 2016 at 6:21 am | PERMALINK
    When is Labor going to put poor ole Bill out of his misery? Surely someone has the decency to administer the decency shot?
    ]

    Funny, that’s exactly what I’ve been thinking would be just the solution for you. I’m sure you would get any number of caring helpers from poll bludger. You only have to ask.

  29. Socrates

    Morning all. Another transport one, but politically relevant. Brisbane Liberal mayor Graham Quirk wants to pend $1.5 billion on a “world first” rubber tyred transit.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lord-mayor-graham-quirk-announces-brisbane-metro-plan-20160131-gmi2xx.html

    Why?? See how well it worked out for this French city. They are ripping it out for LRT instead.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caen_Guided_Light_Transit

  30. C@tmomma

    William,
    I request that you put Edwina St John off the blog temporarily, if not permanently, for suggesting that Bill Shorten be shot. Even in jest this is poor form and just as bad, if not worse, than True Blue Aussie making slurs against his Muslim neighbours wrt his couch and what he had eaten on it.

    What ESJ posted is not funny and deserves a response, even if it is a colloquialism which has been used.

  31. CTar1

    ABC 24: Amanda Vanstone on Abbott and urging him to ‘go’ –

    [“With the effort he’s put in he’s entitled to leave Parliament with a good reputation”]

    Words fail me.

  32. daretotread

    Socrates

    The Quirke idea is just to be different to Labor’s Harding who is starting to make inroads. He had to counter with something and this is his effort.

  33. guytaur

    Good Morning

    Newspoll headline is ⅓ are ok with a GST rise. That means ⅔ are either opposed or neutral. Not good headline for them.

  34. guytaur

    ctar

    If Amanda Vanstone doing soft soap makes Abbott believe its positive for him to leave now I say a credit to her efforts.

    However of course Abbott will not listen to reason even from his own side.

  35. guytaur

    LilyMcDonald25: Mike Seccombe/The Saturday Paper/Disunity in Lib Party is not good news 4 Malcolm Turdbull https://t.co/Y9c5tH3cN1 https://t.co/i30M6ROANw

  36. lizzie

    This is such elementary stuff, showing how backward we are in our approach. Poor Andrew, having to state the obvious.

    [Professor Andrew Bennett, an ecologist from La Trobe University and the Arthur Rylah​ Institute, said it was still important to ensure existing natural systems were as robust as possible, such as protection of vegetation and eradicating feral pests, to give threatened species the best chance under climate change.

    For instance, he said his group’s research had shown Victorian bird species had recovered better from the record-breaking millenium drought in areas with well vegetated streams and riversides as opposed to those which were cleared.]

    http://beta.theage.com.au/environment/changes-to-victorias-bush-will-have-to-be-accepted-under-global-warming-scientists-20160131-gmhzol.html

    The interactive map is quite interesting, e.g.Melbourne will have a similar climate to Adelaide by 2050.

  37. Socrates

    Dtt

    Quite right about Quirk’s motives. The point of my post was to show that five minutes on google will find the evidence of why his idea is “Quirky”.

    Anyone who utters the words “world first new technology” and “also less expensive” in the same sentence should be laughed out of the room.

  38. CTar1

    gt’s the Aim Network article on factions in the Liberal Party – Alex Hawke is the only one mentioned that I’ve ever heard of!

    [What are these factions? One unnamed source within the party told Seccombe there are, “the moderates; the centre right, led by Alex Hawke; the hard right, split between the realistic hard right, led by Dominic Perrottet and Anthony Roberts, and the terrorist hard right, so extreme they are prepared to tear the house down; then there is a small but vocal group led by Jai Rowell and Matthew Mason-Cox, who recently defected from the hard right to align themselves with the moderates.”]

  39. CTar1

    gt’s the Aim Network article on factions in the Liberal Party – Alex Hawke is the only one mentioned that I’ve ever heard of!

    [What are these factions? One unnamed source within the party told Seccombe there are, “the moderates; the centre right, led by Alex Hawke; the hard right, split between the realistic hard right, led by Dominic Perrottet and Anthony Roberts, and the terrorist hard right, so extreme they are prepared to tear the house down; then there is a small but vocal group led by Jai Rowell and Matthew Mason-Cox, who recently defected from the hard right to align themselves with the moderates.”]

  40. CTar1

    Crickey now doing 8am gremlin runs as well?

  41. dave

    Edwina StJohn@24

    When is Labor going to put poor ole Bill out of his misery? Surely someone has the decency to administer the decency shot?

    Thats a new low even for you.

    Withdraw it.

    You might get a tap on the door from AFP.

  42. Strong UnionsStrongCountry

    Bruce Petty cartoon..the Abbott shirt-fronting the inevitable

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaE9inmUAAAyRsc.jpg

  43. shellbell

    If you want to find speculative stuff written by labor supporters, look for the word Independent in the title

  44. Socrates

    CTar
    [gt’s the Aim Network article on factions in the Liberal Party – Alex Hawke is the only one mentioned that I’ve ever heard of!]
    The Liberal party’s nameless men? Only Labor gets faceless men. Big difference 🙂

  45. guytaur

    Tony_Burke: Just arrived in Canberra for a political fight with Malcolm Turnbull. A whole lot of Lib MPs are here for the same reason. #auspol

  46. CTar1

    Things you didn’t know from Mattius Cormann –

    [“the Goods and Services Tax is manifestly part of our tax system”]

  47. Strong UnionsStrongCountry

    Zanetti carton on the Nationals leadership

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaE-RL5UMAAaCTB.jpg

  48. Strong UnionsStrongCountry

    Govt debt at new record today. $408 billion up a stonking $135 billion since the election http://aofm.gov.au

  49. daretotread

    Socrates
    Agree on transport totally.

    Re the factions, at least we are now starting to hear of them. This is a step forward. previously i only had a smidgeon of knowledge about the Clarke/Hawke group and a vague understanding there were “wets”