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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 12, 2016

ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition

ReachTEL offers another increment of evidence for a slight loss of honeymoon gloss for the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership.

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A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1235 comments

1,235 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition

  1. davidwh

    75-25 is more believable.

    All the polling is showing a small shift back to Labor so at least from that perspective we have some consistency.

  2. Question

    K17.

    I just tried to explain my calculations at the end of the last thread (if you’re interested).

  3. bemused

    davidwh@2

    75-25 is more believable.

    All the polling is showing a small shift back to Labor so at least from that perspective we have some consistency.

    The trickle before the flood comrade.

    People are waking up to the flimflam man and his motley gang.

  4. Rex Douglas

    75-25 suggests Bill Shorten still can’t cut through…

  5. Question

    Just putting this on the new thread…

    According to Oakes Bill Shorten will announce a policy to only allow negative gearing on new property. Also to cut the CGT discount to 25% on investor property.

  6. Question

    [75-25 suggests Bill Shorten still can’t cut through…]

    Turnbull is turning into tissue.

  7. victoria

    Question

    And apparently Shorten will announce these policies at the ALP conference this weekend

  8. mikehilliard

    [32% expecting him to be very good or good]

    Lord almighty, what a country.

  9. Kevin Bonham

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/can-required-multiple-preferencing.html

    Can Required Multiple Preferencing Solve The Senate Reform Mess?

  10. mikehilliard

    Rex

    Why not just tell us all what PPM Shorten needs to be “cutting through” and save yourself the trouble of reminding us.

  11. Simon Katich

    [Also to cut the CGT discount to 25% on investor property.]
    Well, that will ruffle feathers, especially if it includes existing investments.

  12. Simon Katich

    [Can Required Multiple Preferencing Solve The Senate Reform Mess?]
    Will they hire more staff to count this or, as its the senate, allow the process to take longer?

  13. Tom the first and best

    13

    If there is a DD, especially if it is held in July, and they take to long to count the vote all the Senate ministers have to resign because they cannot be ministers without a seat for more than 3 months.

  14. victoria

    Oops a gerbil attack!

  15. Question

    I just wanted to thank KB a lot 🙂

  16. mikehilliard

    ABC say Turnbull will reshuffle & reset.

    Abbott was big on “resets”.

  17. zoomster

    Roberts is incredibly unlucky. What are the chances of a blind trust investing in a company owned by one of your best friends?

  18. Paul

    Plastic bag, schmlastic bag. Are there any photos? I would need to see the original bag with fingerprints on it to believe that bullshit.

    Was there any store name or other identifier in the bag? Were the watches in a box labelled Roleks (oops) or just scratching against each other in the bag?

  19. CTar1

    SK

    Yep. Menton nice. Even better Castillon just up the hill (shitty road!). It’s got a great view down a V shaped valley over the top of Menton.

    Very much one of my favorite places to be.

  20. Michael

    Simon Katich @ 13: Just hiring more people to do a Senate count is not necessarily so easy. You would expect trained data entry officers to be harder and harder to get, as online interactions are replacing hardcopy forms. And if the count is to be done manually, being a counter is a skilled, not unskilled, position. A person who misplaces or mis-labels a single bundle of ballots can completely disrupt proceedings.

  21. Question

    [I just wanted to thank KB a lot :-)]

    That comment only made sense when there were about 5 repeats of my #14.

  22. Michael

    Tom @ 13: More generally, going for months without a Parliament, not to mention ~ 8 weeks in caretaker mode, would seem likely to be politically problematical.

  23. CTar1

    Jesus Rex – Same post over and over.

    Don’t you get bored with it.

  24. bemused

    Michael@25

    Simon Katich @ 13: Just hiring more people to do a Senate count is not necessarily so easy. You would expect trained data entry officers to be harder and harder to get, as online interactions are replacing hardcopy forms. And if the count is to be done manually, being a counter is a skilled, not unskilled, position. A person who misplaces or mis-labels a single bundle of ballots can completely disrupt proceedings.

    If the problems can be sorted out, electronic voting will make it easy.

    Once the voters intention is recorded electronically, the rest is a doodle.

  25. Tom

    Zoomster @ 21 – likely run by Robert Investment House Pty Ltd of which one Stuart Robert MP and his wife are trustees…

    Tom

  26. sprocket_

    Malcolm is a man in a hurry. So much so, that the dificulties with an early DD election may fade away with the promise of a shining prize.

    And the prize? Winning an election and remaking the government and its policies in his self percieved image. One which doesnt carry any more of the AbbottBaggage.

  27. Michael

    Bemused @ 29: e-voting at 7000 polling places would be prohibitively expensive. It’s feasible in the ACT because it’s so much smaller. And there are hordes of problems with internet voting: see http://www.eca.gov.au/research/files/internet-voting-australian-election-systems.pdf

  28. Tom the first and best

    27

    The House of Reps would be counted within a couple of weeks of the election. The long campaign is a slight concern, but not overly so.

  29. davidwh

    Turnbull’s approval numbers have taken a big hit with approval down 14 and disapproval up 11. Apparently he has gone from deity level to just fair.

  30. bemused

    Michael@32

    Bemused @ 29: e-voting at 7000 polling places would be prohibitively expensive. It’s feasible in the ACT because it’s so much smaller. And there are hordes of problems with internet voting: see http://www.eca.gov.au/research/files/internet-voting-australian-election-systems.pdf

    Yes, I did acknowledge there were problems to be sorted out and about a year or so ago I attended a talk by an academic researching this.

    Most polling places are at schools so a connection to the internet should be feasible.

    Cost of terminals would be considerable, but then so too is the cost of processing paper ballots. So there is an offset there.

  31. bemused

    davidwh@34

    Turnbull’s approval numbers have taken a big hit with approval down 14 and disapproval up 11. Apparently he has gone from deity level to just fair.

    The answer is @4

  32. TPOF

    [And the prize? Winning an election and remaking the government and its policies in his self percieved image. One which doesnt carry any more of the AbbottBaggage.]

    But how many of his opponents will simply do a Rex and say that a blind drover’s dog could beat Shorten and declare that, contrary to winning his own mandate, Turncoat actually wasted the mandate won by Abbott in 2013? That thinking may be contrary to reality and logic, but people have a great ability to believe what suits them.

  33. Doyley

    Good evening all,

    Big turnaround for Shorten in personal ratings as well but in the right direction.

    Cheers.

  34. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Thanks, Victoria, I’m going to send it to my family memebers who think he’s bland! God, they piss me off.

  35. zoomster

    I know Indi isn’t necessarily a typical electorate, but only a very small number of booths here are in schools. The nearest booth at a school to me, for example, is nearly an hour’s drive away. Most of the booths are in community halls.

  36. victoria

    k17

    No worries. Hopefully it may open their eyes. 🙂

  37. TPOF

    I could not imagine anything better for Labor than a long election campaign.

    The last time this happened, when Hawke called the 1984 election, actually saw Hawke and Labor going backward (only keeping the same number of seats because the Parliament was expanded).

    And all my observations of both Shorten and Turnbull in action will see Shorten out-debating Turnbull in every head to head. When Shorten gets going, he can be very direct, precise and passionate. Turnbull is incapable of achieving any of those. His long suit is to sound Prime Ministerial and hope people don’t fall asleep as he talks down at them.

  38. victoria

    Willim Bowe

    A little surprised. I thought Alannah would stand again.

  39. bemused

    zoomster@40

    I know Indi isn’t necessarily a typical electorate, but only a very small number of booths here are in schools. The nearest booth at a school to me, for example, is nearly an hour’s drive away. Most of the booths are in community halls.

    Wouldn’t be a problem if we had pervasive NBN.

  40. CTar1

    [Alannah MacTiernan to bow out:]

    2nd Perth Labor one in a short time. Malcolm will be declaring that Labor is hemorrhaging and in crisis and should be voted out

  41. CTar1

    MacTiernan seems to be saying she’s chucking it in because she not been promoted???

  42. Darn

    [Rex Douglas
    Posted Friday, February 12, 2016 at 6:46 pm | PERMALINK
    75-25 suggests Bill Shorten still can’t cut through…
    ]

    Neither can you Rex. We’ve heard it all before, ad infinitum.

  43. bemused

    CTar1@47

    MacTiernan seems to be saying she’s chucking it in because she not been promoted???

    I don’t know how you get that from her statement.

  44. imacca

    [ MacTiernan seems to be saying she’s chucking it in because she not been promoted??? ]

    Statement could be read that way? Still, she has been in politics for a long time. Maybe just sick of Canberra. Whatever, she has been a good ALP member, would like to see her stay but if she wants out, all the best.