Galaxy finds Queensland's Liberal National Party opposition retaining the narrow lead it opened up in the previous poll at the tail end of last year, and records a drop in approval for Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
Bit late to this one, but this morning’s Courier-Mail carried a Galaxy poll of state voting intention in Queensland. If finds the Liberal National Party opposition with a primary vote lead of 43% to 37%, up slightly from the 42% to 37% result at the previous poll in mid-November. This was extrapolated to a 52-48 lead after preferences, up from 51-49, but two-party calculation is a fraught endeavour in Queensland due to the erratic behaviour of preferences at recent elections. Galaxy derives its result from a composite result of preference flows from the past few elections, so that Labor’s remarkably good showing on preferences in 2015 is balanced out by their disastrous result in 2012. If 2015 election preferences are applied to Galaxy’s primary vote numbers, the result is around 50-50, suggesting a 1% swing to the LNP rather than the published 3%. The poll also finds Annastacia Palaszczuk down nine points on approval since mid-November to 51%, and up eight on disapproval to 32%, while her lead over Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg as preferred premier narrows from 54-26 to 49-30. However, Springborg’s personal ratings have also deteriorated, his approval rating down four to 37% and disapproval up six to 40%. HT: Leroy Lynch.
UPDATE: Full results on the Galaxy site, which tells us the Greens are on 9% and Katter’s Australian Party is on 4%, in both cases unchanged on last time.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.