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Federal Politics 2013-

Mar 22, 2016

ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A poll conducted immediately after yesterday's election timing announcement from the Prime Minister shows the Coalition retaining a modest lead, while an earlier poll from Essential Research has the parties still locked together at 50-50.

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This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.

Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.

Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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982 comments

982 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. Question

    Looking forward to the primaries.

  2. TPOF

    Things are moving closer to a Labor victory. Nice figures, especially the closing of the gap between Shorten and Turncoat as best PM.

    As for the DD ultimatum, 23% were undecided. Allocate them pro rata at your risk.

  3. Question

    Also a slight majority favour the DD threat 39-33(from memory)

    Mind you, yesterday the MSM was telling them how bold it was. Not such great coverage today… VEEP included.

  4. lefty e

    Yes, as for that media coverage – what a load of crap! Read Tim Dunlop on why

    [The media is falling over itself with praise for Malcolm Turnbull’s double dissolution move and is asking us to believe his months of dithering and being beholden to the right was just some ploy. Give me a break, writes Tim Dunlop.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-22/dunlop-dear-media-turnbull-isn't-decisive-he's-desperate/7265720

  5. JimmyDoyle

    [1610 of last thread
    bemused
    Yes.
    As I understand it, the ‘contempt’ meant they had defied court orders.
    I am very sympathetic to them but I also think they need to refine their tactics.
    ]

    I get that you’re talking from a public opinion perspective, but there is no justice in the disparity between the fine received by the CFMEU for protesting (and contempt of court), and the fine received by Grocon for killing three people.

  6. Sohar

    Old one but some interesting stuff in here on why Turnbull could come unstuck against the patient Shorten.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/12/talking-the-town-turnbull-tales-and-gillard-among-the-chosen/

  7. Question

    The “better PM” no-undecided option on Reachtel suggests most of the undecided are leaning toward Shorten.

    I know you shouldn’t mix and match data from separate polls, but Shorten almost doubles his 21 in Newspoll, while Turnbull only gets a few more than his 55.

  8. Question

    sorry 52 not 55 (that was the previous poll)

  9. TPOF

    [Mind you, yesterday the MSM was telling them how bold it was. Not such great coverage today… VEEP included.]

    The thing about using the VEEP slogan, developed for that program as something particularly vacuous, is not so much the embarrassment and stupidity – thought that is definitely there – but how it points up all the risks that the Government is going to have over the course of a campaign where far too little is being run by the seat of Malcolm Turnbull’s pants. Telling Morrison about the Budget timing falls into the same category.

    Every few hours something else happens to strengthen my expectation of a resounding Labor victory.

  10. Steelydan

    Things are moving closer to a Labor victory. Nice figures, especially the closing of the gap between Shorten and Turncoat as best PM.

    TPOF your like Bagdad Bob, US bombs exploding all around him US forces entering Bagdad and he is still claiming victory.

  11. Kathy McHugh

    The DD is a ploy to cover up PM Turnbull’s lack of tax policies. This “stroke of brilliance” will get journalists off PM Turnbull’s back and change the discussion from his lack of tax reform policies to the DD and the need for the ABCC which didn’t increase productivity and when it was removed nobody really noticed. Why on earth don’t the Libs just get a section or unit from the Fair Work Commission to investigate Union corruption which can then be referred to the appropriate state or federal police. This makes much more sense than the inept ABCC. Even the Productivity Commission Report of 2014 didn’t have many positive things to say about the ABCC

  12. JimmyDoyle

    Steelydan – you’re sounding a little worried – afraid Turnbull can’t pull it off? 😀

  13. Question

    I’m with TPOF, I think Turnbull will be as hopeless as experience tells us he is, and Shorten will win.

  14. TPOF

    [TPOF your like Bagdad Bob, US bombs exploding all around him US forces entering Bagdad and he is still claiming victory.]

    And you’re like Tony Abbott. Everyone lining up to tell him how much at risk his PM’s job is and he was oblivious (and still is).

  15. citizen

    I think polls taken immediately a PM announces an election (and people would generally think Turnbull was announcing an election) have given the government a rise in support.

    This poll would have been taken last night after Turnbull’s “masterstroke” but before Abbott helpfully intervened with all that entails.

  16. Gorkay King

    Massive drop in personal ratings for Turnbull. A lot of green voters still seem to be suckered in by Turnbull though. Over 40 % prefers him as prime minister . You would think after SSM, safe schools and cuts to CSIRO they would turn against him more convincingly .

  17. Steelydan

    We will just have to wait and see but my call is ALP 48 2pp will be as high as you get from here on in.

  18. Question

    citizen,

    I’m not sure people change their voting intention quite that quickly.

  19. A B

    See I don’t get the whole “Morrison was out of the loop” argument. Isn’t it much more likely that Morrison was just lying about the May 10 budget half an hour before the May 3 announcement? Why is it so much more believable that he honestly had no idea it was going to be announced later on that morning? These guys (including Labour) lie all the time. That’s why there is absolutely no point talking to them if you’re trying to uncover the truth. The only reason to ever interview a politician is to assess their reaction, definitely not to learn the truth.

  20. BK

    Two explosions inside the Brussels airport at the American Airlines check-in desk.
    Here we go again.

  21. JimmyDoyle

    Steelydan – an Essential has come out with 50:50, so your call is already wrong.

  22. Question

    Steely,

    Just keep those VEEP slogan’s coming and Turnbull will be a shoe in. 🙂

    Here’s one you can send to Abbott…
    “That’s like fucking a croissant. It doesn’t work and it makes a mess!”

  23. Goosh Goosh

    Steely, until your mob can find a way to shut Tony up, you shouldn’t be so confident. He is practically writing Labor’s attack ads for them

  24. TPOF

    [We will just have to wait and see but my call is ALP 48 2pp will be as high as you get from here on in.]

    Ah. No Mod Lib ; no ESJ. And CC has not been around for a while.

    But we still have continuity with change on PB

  25. Question

    A B @19,

    Watch last night’s 7:30 report interview with Turnbull. They simply don’t talk.

    Meanwhile Abbott talks to anyone who will listen.

    The campaign is going to be a disaster.

  26. TPOF

    [ Isn’t it much more likely that Morrison was just lying about the May 10 budget half an hour before the May 3 announcement?]

    That would make sense if Morrison had not subsequently said that he did not know about the new date for the Budget. He was pissed and wanted everyone to know that Turncoat had left him hung out to dry.

  27. Question

    [But we still have continuity with change on PB]

    Laughing…

    JD… The essential primaries suggest it is still creeping toward the ALP, and we have a trailblazing Morgan with the ALP in front!

  28. TPOF

    [Steely, until your mob can find a way to shut Tony up, you shouldn’t be so confident. ]

    They’ll need to shut Waffles up too.

  29. JimmyDoyle

    Question, perhaps Turnbull could say to Abbott (quoting Selena):

    “I’m trying to put out two fires here, and I turn around and find you’ve set fire to the f**king firetruck!”

    😀

  30. imacca

    [ TPOF your like Bagdad Bob, ]

    SteamSteely, how is TPOF commenting in and upbeat way on actual improved polling for the ALP sounding like Baghdad Bob??

    That’s a big move in the PPM beauty contest figures. Undecideds maybe breaking for Shorten??

    Remember SS, blue kool aid into the boiler to keep it up lad. You’ll need it. Your boy has chosen the long campaign. 🙂

  31. Greensborough Growler

    Update from Brussels.

    BREAKING: 11 dead, 20 injured at #Brussels airport explosion – reports http://on.rt.com/77nr (pic @davidcrunelle)

  32. imacca

    [ And CC has not been around for a while. ]

    I seem to remember that William declared his services no longer required a few weeks ago. ESJ has been quiet though. 🙂

  33. Question

    It really brings out the best in Dreyfus, like her Elaine character in Seinfeld.

  34. Greensborough Growler

    Its actually Steely who is displaying the hysterial theatrics of Bagdad Bob.

  35. JimmyDoyle

    Question re Morgan – Ah yes, but Steelydan doesn’t trust Morgan you see 😀

  36. Question

    JD,

    Funny, Morgan suddenly seem the most reliable to me. How can this circus possibly be in front? You know it doesn’t make sense! 🙂

  37. bemused

    JimmyDoyle@6


    1610 of last thread
    bemused
    Yes.
    As I understand it, the ‘contempt’ meant they had defied court orders.
    I am very sympathetic to them but I also think they need to refine their tactics.


    I get that you’re talking from a public opinion perspective, but there is no justice in the disparity between the fine received by the CFMEU for protesting (and contempt of court), and the fine received by Grocon for killing three people.

    They played into the hands of their opponents so that their contempt of a court ruling became the issue, not the protest.

    As for those deaths, there were a number of parties involved in that, not just Grocon. But yes, I agree stronger action would have been appropriate. But OTOH, there was no intent on the part of anyone.

  38. TPOF

    There is a reason why a poll aggregator like William attracts mostly left of centre interest. It has something to do with rationality and fact having a left bias.

  39. William Bowe

    [I seem to remember that William declared his services no longer required a few weeks ago.]

    If you mean Compact Crank, that most certainly didn’t happen.

  40. JimmyDoyle

    Question – we’re mad lefties, of course it doesn’t make sense to us 😉

  41. TPOF

    [If you mean Compact Crank, that most certainly didn’t happen.]

    That was the artiste formerly known as TBA.

  42. A B

    It seems obvious that Labor should be in front based on the pollbludger environment, but the population at large still only know what they see and hear on mainstream media. Generally that is aligned with Turnbull’s narrative. According to the polling questions there are still many people who believe Tony Abbott is competent at…something. Now that I think about it, with this sort of mindset out there, it’s astounding that the polls are so close.

  43. imacca

    [ If you mean Compact Crank, that most certainly didn’t happen. ]

    Sorry, got him mixed up with TBA.

  44. ratsak

    Ha that 7 news slot was brutal. Don’t worry about the papers. It’s the tv news that has the most influence and that was taking to Turnbull with a cleaver.

  45. Question

    ABC news coverage as bad as everywhere else for the government. The “bold” start of the 100 day campaign didn’t last a day.

    The momentum continues and this mad leftie has to go and cook dinner…

  46. ratsak

    [This bit made me chuckle

    Di Natale jiggled around doing ‘Look at moi. Je suis jejeune’]

    🙂

    Je suis impuissant

  47. JimmyDoyle

    bemused – I’m sure employers never intend for their employees (or members of the public) to be injured or killed in the workplace, but when they fail to comply with OH&S they are culpable, intent or not, so intent is irrelevant.

    The fine Grocon received is not going to encourage them or any other construction company to comply with OH&S laws, given how cheap the court decided life was.

  48. TPOF

    [It seems obvious that Labor should be in front based on the pollbludger environment, but the population at large still only know what they see and hear on mainstream media.]

    That’s why Prime Minister Turnbull has decided to ensure that Bill Shorten and Labor have 15 weeks of election campaign exposure to bring the general voting public up to speed. Master stroke indeed.

  49. Just Me

    From previous thread:

    [
    1620
    victoria

    Some on twitter are predicting Labor will indeed announce they support a federal ICAC
    ]
    I do hope so. 🙂

    If true, I wonder if Gary Gray’s recent departure has anything to do with a shift in ALP thinking on this matter?

    [
    1639
    PhoenixGreen

    I hope this situation pushes Labor to change their mind about opposing a Federal ICAC. Turning ABCC into ICAC is a fantastic way to turn the ABCC case on its head, everyone is lined up (Greens and enough crossbenchers) ready to execute that strategy but Labor is hesitating.
    ]
    There is a beautiful wedge just sitting there, begging to be inserted firmly twixt exposed LNP buttocks.