Three slightly less bad polls for Labor have softened the post-leadership crisis slump in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: preselection news and some minor changes to electoral law.
READ MOREHappy new year
Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.
READ MOREAutomatic for the people
N.B. I’m hoping to keep the thread on this post reserved for matters that at least tangentially relate to electoral reform. The previous thread remains open for more general discussion. Assuming, as is the fashion, that the current federal government doesn’t live to see a third term, it does not appear well placed at this [...]
READ MORENewspoll: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll shows little change from a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. However, it wouldn’t be a current opinion poll if there wasn’t an unpleasant twist for the government, and this time it’s a new low on the primary vote of 26 per cent, down a [...]
READ MOREBritain’s AV referendum: May 5
British voters go to the polls on Thursday to decide whether to introduce the “alternative vote” – what Australians know from state-level experience in New South Wales and Queensland as “optional preferential voting” – in place of the first-past-the-post system which has been in place since the dawn of electoral time. The lead-up to the [...]
READ MOREMorgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, combining surveys conducted over the previous two weekends, shows Labor with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5 when using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences according to the results of the previous election. However, on the respondent-allocated preferences measure used by Morgan as their headline, the result [...]
READ MOREEssential Research: 51-49 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research survey is out, but they’ve sent it as a Word document rather than a PDF and for some reason WordPress won’t let me upload it (UPDATE: The good people at Essential have sent through a PDF). It has the Coalition maintaining its 51-49 lead for a third week running, though down [...]
READ MOREEssential Research: 50-50
The latest Essential Research survey has the two parties locked together on 50-50, suggesting Labor has not received a dividend from its success in forming a minority government. The more recent part of the rolling two-week survey was conducted from last Tuesday, when the rural independents’ made their announcements, until yesterday, and it has dragged [...]
READ MORERoll playing games
In a stunning repudiation of the Howard government’s electoral law “reforms” of 2006, the High Court has today upheld by majority a GetUp!-sponsored legal challenge against the closure of the electoral roll on the day the writs for the election were issued. Until 2006 this routinely occurred seven days later, which allowed voters time to [...]
READ MOREMorgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor
The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 [...]
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