Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Category Archives: Federal By-Elections

Lyne by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Lyne as they come in.

Mayo by-election count thread

I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.

Mayo by-election thread

I’ve been too preoccupied to offer commentary on Saturday’s Mayo by-election, but maybe interested readers can do the job for me in comments. Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs is a short-priced favourite to succeed Alexander Downer in the traditionally safe seat, but two other candidates in the field are of at least theoretical interest. One is [...]

Lyne by-election preview

The September 6 by-elections for Mayo and Lyne initially loomed as fizzers, with Labor showing no inclination post-Gippsland to test the waters in unwinnable seats. They have instead respectively emerged as mildly and enormously interesting, thanks to the entry of non-major party players. In Mayo, housing tycoon Bob Day will bring a cashed-up campaign to [...]

Gippsland by-election post-mortem

This entry will shortly be expanded with a considered analysis of the result, the general thrust of which will be that the surprisingly large swing to the Nationals indeed sounds warning bells for the Rudd government, however keen Labor partisans might be to mark it down to local factors. Below is a localised breakdown of [...]

Gippsland by-election live

Vote
Swing
2PP

Darren Chester (Nationals)
24,184 40.4%
12.2%
66.2%
7.2%

Darren McCubbin (Labor)
16,147 27.0%
-9.3%
33.8%
-7.2%

Rohan Fitzgerald (Liberal)
12,369 20.7%
-

Malcolm McKelvie (Greens)
4,430 7.4%
2.0%

Ben Buckley (LDP)
2,731 4.6%
-

8.38pm. Hooray! The AEC finally adds booth results.
8.14pm. The final booth has given the Nationals a big boost, pushing the swing to a headline-grabbing 7.25 per cent on the AEC figures. However, Antony Green’s booth-on-booth comparison (which I can’t do because the AEC doesn’t have [...]

Gippsland by-election preview

June 26: With two days to go, I’ve promoted this post to the top of the website batting order (scroll to the May 5 entry at the bottom of the post for a general overview). Brendan Nelson today engaged in expectations management on a heroic scale when he predicted Labor would win the by-election, which [...]

One-horse race

Labor’s easy win in the Werriwa by-election is unlikely to go down as a watershed in Australian political history, but it provides a nice fillip for Kim Beazley by offering a contrast to the Cunningham debacle under Simon Crean. It will also enhance the prestige of others associated with the campaign, specifically New South Wales [...]

Belated Werriwa overview

So about this by-election then. Tomorrow the voters of Werriwa return to the polls due to the retirement of former Labor member Mark Latham, whose life story does not need repeating here. Nor does the make-up of the electorate, which has changed little since the federal election guide entry was composed last year.
When Latham pulled [...]

Where’s Werriwa

As readers are no doubt aware, an intriguing federal by-election looms for Mark Latham’s seat of Werriwa on March 19. Since Bryan Palmer at Oz Politics has been kind enough to declare that he has been keeping Western Australian coverage to a minimum on the grounds that Antony Green and myself are doing “a great [...]