Tomorrow’s Newspoll has the Coalition leading on two-party preferred for the first time year, not counting the ridiculously quirky result of May 28-30. That lead however is as narrow as they come, being 50.5-49.5. The 2.5 per cent shift to the Coalition from last week is in contrast to the other weekly polls which showed [...]
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Category Archives: Federal Election 2004
Back to earth with ACNielsen
Monday, October 4, 2004 – 3:00 pm
ACNielsen today offers the first comprehensive poll taken entirely after both parties’ launches. It finds the Coalition ahead 52-48 on two-party preferred and, in keeping with the organisation’s other recent results, with a striking 48 per cent on the primary vote. The poll apparently includes a question on Senate voting intention that shows the Greens [...]
The top right-hand corner and the bit on the left
Monday, October 4, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Having dragged his heels in running through the various Senate contests, the Poll Bludger today offers two for the price of one - first Queensland, then Western Australia. As usual, we begin with a look at where your preferences will go if you, like most people with normal lives to lead, vote above the line. [...]
Examiner examined
Sunday, October 3, 2004 – 3:00 pm
For the second time in the campaign the Launceston Examiner has run results from a poll conducted by EMRS covering about 200 voters in each of Tasmania’s five electorates and again the results are bad for Labor, perhaps implausibly so. The following table details the latest figures (which come from the days before Labor’s campaign [...]
Parramatta and Eden-Monaro (again) (plus others)
Sunday, October 3, 2004 – 12:00 pm
A Taverner poll in today’s Sun-Herald is one of the few polls of the campaign to show Labor looking good in decisive marginal electorates. The samples are small, but the poll has the virtue of having been taken on Wednesday and Thursday evening, after the Labor campaign launch. The seats in question are the New [...]
Paramatta, Eden-Monaro and elsewhere
Saturday, October 2, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Two polls taken after the Liberal launch on Sunday and before Labor’s effort on Wednesday suggest Labor will need every bit of the bounce that Medicare Gold can offer them if they are to win two vital New South Wales seats. Parramatta is one electorate where Labor had been feeling confident, thanks in large part [...]
Behind in Hindmarsh
Friday, October 1, 2004 – 3:00 pm
If Medicare Gold really is going to swing older voters, the one electorate where the impact should be clearest is the coastal Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, ranked number one in the country in the table in the posting below. Today The Advertiser (print version only, it appears - thanks to reader Phil Robins for passing [...]
Broken circuits
Friday, October 1, 2004 – 12:00 pm
The Poll Bludger’s Runs on the Board tally has remained stuck in a very narrow band since week two of the campaign, when the Coalition opened up a slim lead as polling trends suggested soft support for Labor in decisive Queensland marginals. There were a few occasions when potential circuit breakers looked set to prompt [...]
A tale of four seats
Thursday, September 30, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Four new campaign updates for the ever-burgeoning House of Representatives guide. Once again, the action begins in the electorate of …
Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 7.9%): The Greens announced that the order of their preference recommendation would be Labor’s David Patch, followed by independent Peter King, and then Malcolm Turnbull. The importance of Greens preference allocations is [...]
Victorian Senate overview
Wednesday, September 29, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Welcome to the belated second installment in our six-part series looking at the state Senate contests, today’s subject being Victoria. As a service to bewildered Victorian voters, what follows is a guide to how your preferences will trickle down to the serious contenders (very generous interpretation here) if you vote above the line. This irons [...]
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