Antony Green has dropped a line to advise caution in my assumption that Liberal preferences will overwhelmingly favour the Greens over Labor in Melbourne purely on account of the how-to-vote card. As Green points out (and as the Poll Bludger should know because he lives there), the Liberals struggle to find volunteers to attend to [...]
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Category Archives: Federal Election 2004
Newspoll, Morgan and Westpoll
Monday, September 27, 2004 – 3:00 pm
Tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor maintaining most of its surprise lead from last week, now leading 52-48. Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll released today had the parties evenly split on two-party preferred. Morgan has suffered enough from the Poll Bludger in one week so he will make no comment on their headline "Hung Parliament Looks Likely". The [...]
Around the grounds
Monday, September 27, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Week five, and what better way to kick it off than with a batch of new campaign updates for the House of Representatives guide.
Melbourne (Vic, Labor 19.9%): The electorate of senior Labor front-bencher Lindsay Tanner was the subject of an ACNielsen poll in yesterday’s Sunday Age, and it indicated a growing threat to him from [...]
Trouble and strife
Saturday, September 25, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Judith Brett, professor of politics at La Trobe University and author of Australian Liberals and the Moral Middle Class, let fly with her handbag yesterday at those of us who have employed the term "doctors’ wives" to characterise voters who are deserting the Liberal Party in their safest urban electorates (the Poll Bludger’s defence is [...]
An innings and 300 runs
Friday, September 24, 2004 – 3:00 pm
For the second week in a row ACNielsen has produced an eyebrow-raising primary vote for the Coalition. Speaking on Sky News this evening, Margo Kingston revealed that the poll to appear in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will have the Coalition on 50 per cent, solidly higher than for any of Howard’s three previous victories and indeed [...]
Another one bites the dust
Friday, September 24, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Very bad news for Labor today with The Advertiser running a poll from a remarkable sample of 1,114 showing Liberal incumbent Trish Draper – she of the European travel rorts – leading her quality Labor challenger Tony Zappia 52-48 in the Adelaide electorate of Makin. Primary vote after distribution of 12 per cent undecided: Liberal [...]
Morgan and the Senate
Thursday, September 23, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Praise be to the Roy Morgan organisation, which has apparently been asking respondents a bonus question on Senate voting intention since mid-August and has only now chosen to unload the results. The cumulative outcome favours Labor even more heavily than their House of Representatives surveys, with the Coalition down 5 per cent from 2001 to [...]
Electorate snippets
Wednesday, September 22, 2004 – 3:00 pm
When the Poll Bludger gets around to adding his next batch of federal election guide updates, they might look a little something like this:
Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 7.9%): Fairfax and ACNielsen have provided us with a poll which has Malcolm Turnbull on 34 per cent, Labor’s David Patch on 27 per cent and Peter King on [...]
On the road
Wednesday, September 22, 2004 – 12:00 pm
The Daily Telegraph has conducted a poll which combines 600 phone responses conducted by Galaxy Research with 400 face-to-face interviews conducted by Telegraph journalists during a road trip through some of the most contested electoral territory in New South Wales. Where the Telegraph’s last such effort focused entirely upon the bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro, this [...]
Another place
Tuesday, September 21, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Many thanks to the various readers who pointed out that I had failed to appreciate the significance of Liberals for Forests in my first version of this post. What follows is a revised version, now even longer than the original.
The Poll Bludger’s Senate election guide is starting to show its age, and what better time [...]
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