Three new polls have provided three doses of good news, in varying degrees, for a Labor Party desperate for a boost from last Sunday’s debate. Most encouraging is tomorrow’s Newspoll, which shows Labor leading 52.5-47.5 after two successive weeks at 50-50. News Limited tabloids today ran a poll from Galaxy, whose results have previously been [...]
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Category Archives: Federal Election 2004
Party’s over
Sunday, September 19, 2004 – 12:00 pm
The Australian Democrats may well have reached the tipping point with Labor’s decision to put them behind the Greens on preferences for all states in the Senate, Labor having concluded that they now carry too little electoral clout to be worth doing business with. Had this occurred in 2001, Greens candidates would have been elected [...]
Hold the Mayo
Saturday, September 18, 2004 – 3:00 pm
It looks like the Poll Bludger may have been right for a change when he wrote on Thursday that "Brian Deegan, high-profile independent and would-be slayer of Alexander Downer, appeared to abandon any notion of extending his electoral appeal beyond the ideological fringe with his reaction to the Jakarta bombing, suggesting that the Australian Government [...]
Half-time report
Saturday, September 18, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Roy Morgan conducted a phone poll on Wednesday and Thursday with a sample of 1055 that put Labor at 54.5 per cent on two-party preferred, which is at least more moderate than the face-to-face poll they conducted over the previous two weekends that had them at 56 per cent. But an ACNielsen poll of 1400 [...]
Queensland Senate election made easy
Friday, September 17, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Most pundits were quick to dismiss Pauline Hanson’s chances when she announced her bid for a Queensland Senate seat on Wednesday, on the eminently reasonable grounds that she failed at the same endeavour in 2001. John Wanna, professor of Politics and Public Administration at Griffith University and the Australian National University, was almost a lone [...]
Many and varied goings-on
Thursday, September 16, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Apologies to those who missed their daily dose of the Poll Bludger’s penetrating psephological insights yesterday, which was my first posting-free day since August 27. I trust the following round-up of recent campaign updates from the federal election guide will demonstrate that I have not been entirely idle:
Brisbane (Qld, Labor 0.9%): For a candidate with [...]
Many opinion polls
Tuesday, September 14, 2004 – 12:00 pm
A closer look at the Newspoll shows the Coalition’s primary vote up one point to a very healthy 46 per cent, while the Greens have faded two points from last week’s spike to record a more typical 6 per cent.
The following table provides recent results from four sources. On Saturday the Gold Coast Weekend Bulletin [...]
Stuck in the middle with you
Monday, September 13, 2004 – 6:00 pm
For the second week in a row, Newspoll has the Coalition and Labor tied on 50 per cent. Those searching for John Howard’s Jakarta dividend will have to look to the preferred prime minister question, on which his lead has widened by five points. They can also argue that Labor’s tax policy launch cancelled out [...]
Head to head
Monday, September 13, 2004 – 12:00 pm
Two-thirds of Channel Nine’s studio audience of "undecided voters" gave the debate to Mark Latham who indeed did all that an Opposition Leader need do to gain the advantage in such circumstances, and perhaps even a little more. John Howard’s shortcomings in the debate environment have been widely remarked upon, perhaps excessively so, but it [...]
Vale Kevin Richards
Sunday, September 12, 2004 – 6:00 pm
Labor’s candidate for Kalgoorlie, Kevin Richards, has died of a heart attack at the age of 65. The Poll Bludger’s election guide entry noted that one reason the seat was less secure for the Liberals than the 4.4 per cent margin made it appear was the high esteem in which Richards was held in his [...]
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