Presently held for the Liberals by Environment Minister Greg Hunt, the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island seat of Flinders was famously lost by Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in 1929, but Labor has only managed to win it on two further occasions since.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records the Coalition level with Labor on two-party preferred, and with an absolute majority on the seat projection, for the first time since the budget – and also points to an ongoing recovery in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.
The latest Essential Research poll records a delicate shift to the Coalition on voting intention, weakening climate change skepticism, and a rather tough-minded attitude on freedoms and national security.
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.