• The commissioners have responded to widespread criticism of the original proposal to put the electorate name of Reid out of commission, the general feeling being that Australia’s fourth prime minister deserved better. It has been decided that instead of changing the name of its eastern neighbour Lowe to McMahon (which under the redistribution takes in 32 per cent of the voters from abolished Reid), it will instead change to Reid and the new name of McMahon will be given to Prospect, located further to the west.

• To maintain continuity with local government boundaries, the frequently redrawn Calare will recover the western shires of Parkes and Forbes it was to lose to Parkes, and lose the areas of Wellington Shire Council (including Mumbi and Neurea) and Mid-Western Regional Council (Mudgee and Gulgong) it was to gain from it. This is great news for Calare’s National Party member John Cobb, whose margin is now cut from 12.1 per cent to 3.5 per cent rather than the originally proposed 1.2 per cent.

• The vast interior electorate of Farrer, which was originally to remain unchanged, will now absorb a part of the Shire of Central Darling including Wilcannia from Parkes, with no impact on its margin. Parkes in turn will gain the balance of the Shire of Parkes around Lake Cargelligo from its southern neighbour Riverina.

• A transfer of 1100 voters in the north-eastern part of the Shire of Tenterfield from New England to Page has been reversed. This has been counter-balanced by the transfer of the Shire of Lachlan from New England to its western neigbour Parkes. The collective changes to Parkes cut the Nationals margin from 13.8 per cent to 13.6 per cent.

• A transfer from Hume to Throsby south of Sydney has been slightly clipped so the town of Bundanoon remains in Hume. Hume also has its gain from Macarthur further to the north expanded to bring the boundary into alignment with the Nepean River and Sickles Creek, adding Theresa Park, Orangeville and Brownlow Hill in Sydney’s outskirts. None of the margins are affected.

• A transfer around Duckenfield on the west-east boundary between Newcastle and Paterson has been reversed, returning that area to Newcastle, which has further gained the adjacent area of Millers Forest.

• There have been minor adjustments to boundaries betweeen Cunningham and Macarthur, which have been tidied with elimination of a salient that formerly extended into Macarthur at Darkes Forest; Grayndler and what will now be called Reid, the latter of which gains a few blocks of territory to keep Croydon within one electorate; Bennelong and Berowra, where a proposed transfer of 1900 voters in Beecroft from the former to the latter has been reversed; and to the new boundary between Blaxland and Parramatta (in territory previously covered by Reid), adding three blocks of territory to the former at Granville.

• Other adjustments are more incidental still: a transfer of the unpopulated Spring Hill industrial area north of Port Kembla from Throsby to Cunningham has been reversed; Hughes’s boundary with Cook and Cunningham has been altered to follow the Illawarra Railway rather than nearby roads; and the boundary between Mitchell and Parramatta will now follow North Rocks Road rather than nearby Darling Mills Creek.

Other news:

• According to the ABC, the decision to maintain the name Reid increases the likelihood that its nominal member, Laurie Ferguson, will seek to continue his political career through a preselection challenge against John Murphy, the member for what is currently called Lowe. Ferguson is demanding that the matter be determined by a local ballot rather than the state or national executive processes which tend to prevail in contentious circumstances.

• Thwarted in McPherson, Liberal MP Peter Dutton now confirms he will attempt to retain Dickson, which he earlier swore he wouldn’t do.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “sources across all factions” agree that Macarthur MP Pat Farmer is certain to lose Liberal preselection at next Thursday’s ballot to former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson. It is further said by Salusinszky’s sources that Farmer, who dumped a bucket on his own constituents on election night and has since moved far away from them to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman, is only running to be eligible for parliamentary superannuation granted to those who serve three terms followed by “involuntary departure”. Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Camden Advertiser reports Labor’s preselection for the seat looms as a four-way contest between Nick Bleasdale (local carpenter and narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007), Greg Warren (the deputy mayor of Camden), Michael Freelander (a Campbelltown pediatrician) and Paul Nunnari (a wheelchair athlete). Ben Raue at The Tally Room offers an informed overview of the local political situation. The redistribution has turned the seat from 0.7 per cent Liberal to 0.1 per cent Labor.

• The Courier Mail says the Liberal preselection for new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright will be “a five-way affair” involving Cameron Thompson, who lost Blair to Labor’s Shayne Neumann in 2007; Hajnal Ban, Logan City councillor and Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007; and Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and former presenter of the 1980s children’s television show Wombat.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales Liberal Party is “talking about recruiting everyone from the former ABC broadcaster Sally Loane to the former right-hand man to John Howard, Arthur Sinodinos”. Loane’s services are reportedly sought in Coogee, while Sinodinos might replace the outgoing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. Conservative Sydney Morning Herald columnist Miranda Devine is apparently not interested.

• Former NRL player Hazem El Masri has also reportedly been approached by the Liberal Party to stand in the ultra-safe Labor seat of Lakemba. However, Andrew Clennell in the Herald relates that “Liberal sources said yesterday they believed Mr El Masri would not agree to stand for Parliament”. Labor is also said to have its sights on El Masri, with earlier conjecture he might succeed Tony Stewart in Bankstown.

• The Progress Leader reports Graham Watt, the owner of a local carpet cleaning business, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Jeff Kennett’s old seat of Burwood, currently held by Labor’s Bob Stensholt on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Watt reportedly received 70 votes against 45 for former Hawthorn AFL player Steve Lawrence (who was given a reference by Kennett) and five for David Solly, IT manager and one-time Nationals member.

Plenty happening on the electoral front, not least the finalisation of the federal redistribution for Queensland. This offers a few surprises, and may be a rare occasion where a major party’s submission has actually had an effect. Two changes in particular were broadly in line with the wishes of the Liberal National Party, which marshalled a considerable weight of media commentary to argue that the Coalition had been hard done by. As always, Antony Green has crunched the numbers: all estimated margins quoted herein are his.

• Most interestingly, the changes to Dickson that sent Peter Dutton scurrying for refuge have been partly reversed. As the LNP submission requested, the electorate has recovered the rural area along Dayboro Road and Woodford Road that it was set to lose to Longman. However, only a small concession was made to the LNP’s request that the troublesome Kallangur area be kept out of the electorate. The electoral impact is accordingly slight, clipping the notional Labor margin from 1.3 per cent to 1.0 per cent. Peter Dutton is nonetheless sufficiently encouraged that he’s indicating he might yet stand and fight – or less charitably, he’s found a pretext to get out of the corner he had backed himself into. Labor has received a corresponding boost in its marginal seat of Longman, where Jon Sullivan’s margin has been cut from 3.6 per cent at the election to 1.7 per cent, instead of the originally proposed 1.4 per cent.

• Major changes to Petrie and Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley have largely been reversed. It had been proposed to eliminate Petrie’s southern dog-leg by adding coastal areas from Shorncliffe and Deagon north to Brighton from Lilley, which would be compensated with Petrie’s southern leg of suburbs from Carseldine south to Stafford Heights. The revised boundaries have eliminated the former transfer and limited the latter to south of Bridgeman Downs. Where the original proposal gave Labor equally comfortable margins in both, the revision gives Wayne Swan 8.8 per cent while reducing Yvette D’Ath to an uncomfortable 4.2 per cent. Retaining Shorncliffe, Deagon and Brighton in Lilley had been advocated in the LNP submission. Almost-local observer Possum concurs, saying the revised boundaries better serve local communities of interest.

• South of Brisbane and inland of the Gold Coast, changes have been made to the boundary between Forde and the new electorate of Wright, with a view to consolidating the rural identity of the latter. Forde gains suburban Boronia Heights and loses an area of hinterland further south, extending from suburban Logan Village to rural Jimboomba. Labor’s margin in Forde has increased from 2.4 per cent to 3.4 per cent, and the Coalition’s in Wright is up from 3.8 per cent to 4.8 per cent.

• Little remains of a proposed northward shift of the boundary between Kennedy and Leichhardt from the Mitchell River to the limits of Tablelands Regional council. Kennedy will now only gain an area around Mount Molloy, 150 kilometres north-west of Cairns. Its boundary with Dawson has also been tidied through the expansion of a transfer from Dawson south of Townsville, aligning it with the Burdekin River. None of the three seats’ margins has changed.

• Moreton gains a park and golf course from Oxley in the west and loses part of Underwood to Rankin in the south-east, with negligible impact on their margins.

• Maranoa has gained the area around Wandoan from Flynn, making the boundary conform with Western Downs Regional Council. This boosts Labor’s margin in Flynn from 2.0 per cent to 2.3 per cent, compared with 0.2 per cent at the election.

• Three minor adjustments have been made to the boundary between the safe Liberal Sunshine Coast seats of Fisher and Fairfax, allowing the entirety of Montville to remain in Fisher.

• Ryan has taken a sliver of inner city Toowong from Brisbane.

Other news:

• The Financial Review’s Mark Skulley reported on Wednesday that the federal government was moving quickly to get its electoral reform package into shape. Labor is said to be offering a deal: if the Liberals drop their opposition to slashing the threshold for public disclosure of donations (which the Coalition and Steve Fielding voted down in March), the government will include union affiliation fees in a ban on donations from corporations, third parties and associated entities. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says the New South Wales branch of the ALP alone receives $1.3 million in revenue a year from the fees, which unions must pay to send delegates to party conferences. According to Skulley, many union leaders fear a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party by weakening union ties, with Coorey naming the ACTU and Victorian unions as “most hostile”. It is further reported that the parties propose to cover the foregone revenue by hiking the rate of public funding. VexNews “understands” that an increase from $2.24 per vote to $10 is on the cards, potentially increasing the total payout from $49 million to $200 million. The site says Westpac currently has a formal claim over Labor’s public funding payout after the next election, as the party is currently $8 million in debt. The Liberals are said to be keen because they’re having understandable trouble raising funds at the moment. A further amendment proposes to restrict political advertising by third parties. As well as being stimulating politically, some of these moves might be difficult constitutionally.

• A proposed referendum on reform to the South Australian Legislative Council has been voted down in said chamber. The referendum would have been an all-or-nothing vote to change terms from a staggered eight years to an unstaggered four, reduce its membership from 22 to 16, allow a deliberative rather than a casting vote for the President and establish a double dissolution mechanism to resolve deadlocks. Another bill amending the Electoral Act has been passed, although it will not take effect until after the March election. A number of its measures bring the state act into line with the Commonwealth Electoral Act: party names like “Liberals for Forests” have been banned, provisions have been made for enrolment of homeless voters, and MPs will be able to access constituents’ dates of birth on the electoral roll (brace yourselves for presumptuous birthday greetings in the mail). The number of members required of a registered party has been increased from 150 to 200: if you’re wondering why they bothered, the idea was to hike it to 500 to make life difficult for the putative Save the Royal Adelaide Hospital party, but the government agreed to a half-measure that wouldn’t threaten the Nationals. Misleading advertising has also been introduced as grounds for declaring a result void if on the balance of probabilities it affected the result. The Council voted down attempts to ban “corflute” advertising on road sides and overturn the state’s unique requirement that how-to-vote cards be displayed in each polling compartment.

• Deborah Morris of the Hastings Leader reports Helen Constas, chief executive of the Peninsula Community Legal Centre, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for the south-eastern Melbourne federal seat of Dunkley, where Liberal member Bruce Billson’s margin was cut from 9.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent at the 2007 election. Constas was said to have had “a convincing win in the local ballot”. UPDATE: Andrew Crook of Crikey details Constas’s preselection as a win for the left born of disunity between the Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy forces of the Right; Right faction sources respond at VexNews.

• The ABC reports that Nationals members in the state electorate of Dubbo have voted not to abandon their preselection privileges by being the guinea pig in the state party’s proposed open primary experiment. There is reportedly a more welcoming mood in Port Macquarie, which like Dubbo is a former Nationals seat that has now had consecutive independent members.

UPDATE (10/8/09): Here it is.

SYDNEY

The abolished electorate of Reid, located in the western suburbs from Homebush Bay west to Westmead and south to Rookwood, has been carved up three ways: 46,300 (44 per cent) of its voters go to Parramatta, 33,300 (32 per cent go) to McMahon, as Lowe is now named, and 26,000 (25 per cent go) to Blaxland. The transfer to Parramatta solves that electorate’s identity problem, the boundary between Parramatta and Reid currently running through a town centre that will now sit at the heart of the electorate bearing its name. Parramatta also gains from Reid areas extending eastwards through the Parramatta River and its surrounds to Rydalmere, and southwards to Merrylands and Granville. This is great news for Labor’s Parramatta MP, Julie Owens, whose margin (by Antony Green’s reckoning) is up from 6.9 per cent to 9.5 per cent – provided Laurie Ferguson doesn’t have designs on her seat. McMahon gains the area south from the nature reserves along the Parramatta River through Silverwater and Newington to Rookwood, boosting the margin there to 10.4 per cent. Since there had been murmurings about the future of Lowe MP John “Beef Stroganoff” Murphy in any case, this seat would presumably be the logical target for Ferguson’s predations. Blaxland gains Reid’s southern reaches of Guildford, South Granville and Berala, and presents an unlikely target for Ferguson given the strength of sitting member Jason Clare’s support in the Right.

These changes have resulted in knock-on effects in the electorates south to the Georges River. Watson moves north into areas vacated by the reorientation of Lowe/McMahon and Blaxland to fill the void in Reid. It gains the southern part of Lowe, accounting for an area bisected by the Hume Highway through Enfield and including the southern parts of Strathfield and Croydon to its north and northern Bedfield and Croydon Park to its south. This accounts for 25,200 voters, or 27 per cent of the previous enrolment of Lowe. From Blaxland, Watson gains 18,900 voters in Greenacre and Mount Lewis, or 19.5 per cent of the old Blaxland’s enrolment. There is a further gain 3,900 voters just south of this area from Banks, at Punchbowl. This in turn requires Watson to cede substantial territories to its southern neighbours: Barton, which gains 27,900 voters from Kingsgrove east to Bexley North and Earlwood, and Banks, which gains 18,700 voters at Hurstville and a sliver of territory at Narwee and Riverwood south of the South Western Motorway. Watson thus carries over only 52 per cent of the voters from the division as previously constituted.

Barton’s gains from Watson are counter-balanced by the transfer to Banks of the western part of its territory on the north shore of the Georges River, accounting for 27,000 voters from Connells Point, Kyle Bay and Blakehurst north to Hurstville. Banks’s gains from Barton and Watson amount to an eastward shift, which is manifested at the opposite end by transfers to Hughes (22,900 votes from Milperra south through Panania to Georges River, home to 22,900 voters) and Blaxland (15,100 voters in an area from Bankstown Aerodrome east through Condell Park to Bankstown itself). The effect has been to reduce the Labor margin in Banks to single figures, from 11.1 per cent to 9.6 per cent. Blaxland’s gains in north and south are counterbalanced by losses in east (18,900 voters in Greenacre and Mount Lewis to Watson, as previously mentioned) and west (20,200 voters in Lansvale and eastern Cabramatta to Fowler), changing the electorate’s orientation on the map from horizontal and vertical and leaving it carrying over only 60 per cent of its existing voters.

Hughes pays for its gain from Banks with two transfers to its eastern neighbour Cook, around Como on Georges River (4900 voters) and Sutherland further south (3400 voters), one to its north-western neighbour Fowler (5600 voters at Liverpool), and the loss of urban Heathcote and the adjoining national park of the same name to Cunningham in the south (4,900 voters). The Banks gain in particular has contributed to a small but potentially crucial change in the Liberal margin, which is cut from 2.2 per cent 1.1 per cent. Fowler loses the outskirts areas west of Kemps Creek – over half of its geographic area – accounting for 9500 voters at Wallacia, Warragamba, Luddenham and Greendale, which now form the northern tip of Macarthur. It also loses 10,800 voters at Cecil Park to Prospect in the north and 1500 at Austral to Werriwa in the south, while making the aforementioned gains from Blaxland and Hughes to the east. Prospect’s gain from Fowler is counterbalanced at its opposite end by a neat shift of the northern boundary from the Western Motorway to the Great Western Highway, moving 3500 voters to Chifley. Its eastern tip at South Wentworthville, containing 5400 voters, is transferred to Parramatta. Werriwa’s gain from Fowler is counterbalanced by the loss of 4300 around Blairmount and Blair Athol to Macarthur in the south.

Parramatta’s gains from Prospect and particularly Reid are counterbalanced by losses in the west and central north. The latter area accounts for a transfer for 9500 voters around Winston Hills to Mitchell, bringing the Liberal margin there down from 11.6 per cent to 9.6 per cent. The area west of Old Windsor Road and Binalong Road, accounting for 44,400 voters in Kings Langley, Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Toongabbie and Girraween, goes to Greenway in a dramatic redrawing of that electorate. A further strip of territory immediately to the west is transferred to Greenway from Chifley, accounting for 9700 voters from Blacktown south to Prospect. All that remains of the original Greenway is its area closest to the city, defined by the Blacktown-Richmond Railway in the west and Old Windsor Road in the east, with Marayong, Acacia Gardens, Parklea, Glenwood, Stanhope Gardens and Riverstone in between. This area contains 44,900 voters, only 45 per cent of those in Greenway as currently constituted. The area west of the railway, including 9,700 voters at Shanes Park, Marsden Park and Colebee, now forms the northern end of Chifley. Further west again, on the opposite bank of South Creek, Londonderry and its 4000 voters now form the northern end of Lindsay, reducing the Labor margin there from 6.8 per cent to 6.3 per cent. Beyond that to the north, the outskirsts and semi-rural territory which previously made up most of Greenway’s geographic area has been transferred to Macquarie. Greenway thus goes from being a Liberal seat with a margin of 4.5 per cent to a Labor seat with a margin of 5.6 per cent, presenting Liberal member Louise Markus with a redistribution as bad as her last one was good.

Mitchell’s gain from Parramatta in the south is counterbalanced by the loss to Berowra in the north of its area beyond Cattal Creek, containing 8600 voters from Glenhaven north-west to Annangrove. Berowra also gains a small strip of the otherwise unchanged Bennelong, adding 1900 voters north of North Rocks Road and Plympton Road in Beecroft. The former change helps push the Liberal margin over double figures, from 8.9 per cent to 10.3 per cent. Its gains are counterbalanced by the transfer of 6600 voters around Normanhurst in the south-east to Bradfield, which also gains 7000 voters at East Killara and East Lindfield from its south-eastern neighbour Warringah. The latter transfer forms part of a rationalisation of Warringah’s western boundary along Middle Harbour Creek and Sugarloaf Bay, which also moves Castle Cove and Middle Cove due south of the Berowra transfer to North Sydney. Warringah also loses 3500 voters to the otherwise unchanged Mackellar at Forrestville on the eastern bank of Middle Harbour Creek, adjoining the East Killara/East Lindfield transfer to Bradfield. North Sydney gains the southern part of Bradfield around Chatswood, adding 13,800 voters, while losing to Warringah 2700 voters in a strip between Middle Harbour and Sydney Harbour from Willoughby Bay to Neutral Bay and Cremorne Point. Liberal margins in Warringah and North Sydney have both been garnished slightly, from 5.4 per cent to 5.0 per cent in the former case and 9.5 per cent to 8.8 per cent in the latter.

The southern shore and inner city seats have undergone very little change. Malcolm Turnbull’s base in Wentworth has gone untouched. Its southern neighbour, Peter Garrett’s Kingsford Smith, loses 3600 voters in its north-western corner at Rosebury to Sydney, which is otherwise unchanged. Sydney’s western neighbour, Grayndler, absorbs 1200 voters in northern Croydon from Lowe, allowing Grayndler to cover the entire municipality of Ashfield.

THE BUSH

The area Macquarie absorbs from Greenway extends from Richmond in Sydney’s north-western outskirts north through Kurrajong to the unpopulated Parr State Conservation Area and populated McDonald River valley, and accounts for 43,600 voters. Just as the loss of this area has been devastating for the Liberals in Greenway, so has its gain all but eliminated Labor’s buffer in Macquarie, from 7.0 per cent to 0.1 per cent. Macquarie maintains the Blue Mountains municipal area but loses to Calare its interior territory, including 41,900 voters in and around Lithgow, Oberon and Bathurst, which returns to Calare populous areas it lost at the previous election. In doing so it again makes Calare a marginal seat, as it had been when Labor held it throughout the Hawke-Keating years. The Nationals margin is now 1.2 per cent, compared with 12.1 per cent at the election. Calare retains 41,400 voters in Orange, the neighbouring Cabonne and Blayney municipalities and the northern part of the Bathurst Regional Council area. It also absorbs the area of Parkes nearest to Sydney, namely the southern half of Wellington Shire Council (including Mumbi and Neurea) and most of Mid-Western Regional Council (Mudgee and Gulgong), home to 14,500 voters. The unpopulated remainder of Mid-Western, beyond Bylong Valley to the east, is transferred to Hunter.

Parkes in turn absorbs from Calare its expansive interior areas, resulting in a dramatic increase in its already considerable geographic area and a corresponding reduction in Calare’s. This area runs from Forbes and Parkes out to Narromine, Warren, Condobelin, Nyngan, Cobar, Bourke, Brewarrina and Wilcannia, and contains 34,700 voters. A further area to the south, containing 2,600 voters in Shire of Carrathool and the southern half of the Shire of Lachlan, goes to Riverina, while 11,800 voters to the east of this area in the shires of Weddin and Cowra go to Hume. The area maintained by Parkes extends from Dubbo and Wellington north through the shires of Gilgandra, Warrumbungle, Coonamble and Narrabri to the Queensland border at Walgett, Moree Plains and Gwydir. Parkes loses the 8200 voters in the Shire of Gunnedah to its eastern neighbour, New England, which in turn loses 1100 voters in the north-eastern part of the Shire of Tenterfield to Page. This adjustment has cut the Labor margin in Page from 2.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent.

The latter amendment notwithstanding, the north coast electorates of Richmond, Page and Cowper have been little affected. Richmond is unchanged, reflecting ongoing population growth around Tweed Heads. A salient south of Grafton containing 250 voters has been transferrred from Cowper to Page for the sake of neatness. Cowper’s southern neighbour, Lyne, gains 3800 voters in the Shire of Gloucester at its interior southern end from Paterson. Paterson’s boundary with Hunter in the city of Maitland has been amended to conform with New England Highway, adding East Maitland on the highway’s north-eastern side, and to the north of the city it gains an area around Hillsborough and Maitland Vale north of the Hunter River. The changes account for 2300 voters between them, counterbalancing Hunter’s gains from Parkes and cutting the Liberal margin in Paterson from 1.5 per cent to 0.4 per cent. Paterson loses to Newcastle the area from the Paterson River and Four Mile Creek south to Raymond Terrace Road, including the town of Duckenfield and 530 voters. Newcastle loses to Charlton an area of Lambton south of Newcastle Road and west of Croudace Street, which includes Newcastle Private Hospital and 1200 voters in a residential area to the north. There is no other change to Charlton, and no change at all to its coastal neighbour Shortland. Further south again, Dobell is unchanged except for the loss of 157 voters in its interior area of McPherson State Forest and Mangrove Creek Dam, which is transferred to the otherwise unchanged Robertson.

In the interior, Farrer remains unchanged, continuing to cover the entirety of the state’s western border and extending along the Victorian border as far as Albury and the adjoining Shire of Greater Hume. Neighbouring Riverina now extends to the Victorian border by gaining the interior areas of Eden-Monaro, the shires of Tumut and Tumbarumba (10,100 voters), and also has the previously discussed gain from Calare. This is counterbalanced by the loss of the Shire of Cootamundra and its 5500 voters to Hume. Eden-Monaro gains the 13,900 voters in and around Batemans Bay from its northern coastal neighbour Gilmore, which together with the Riverina transfer returns Eden-Monaro to its pre-2007 boundaries, excepting the anomalous areas north of the Australian Capital Territory which remain in Hume. Labor’s margin there is reduced from 3.4 per cent to 2.3 per cent. At its eastern end, Hume gains from Macarthur and loses to Throsby. The gain of the interior area of Macarthur, covering 10,500 voters from Lake Burragorang south through Oakdale, The Oaks and Picton to Wilton and Brooks Point, counterbalances Macarthur’s Sydney outskirts gains from Fowler and Werriwa. To Throsby it loses the balance of the Shire of Wingecarribee east of the Hume Highway, including 27,500 voters in and around the rail line towns of Mittagong, Bowral and Moss Vale. The changes to Hume increase the Liberal margin from 4.2 per cent to 5.2 per cent.

Throsby loses to Gilmore its southern coastal area around Shellharbour and lighly populated areas of the Municipality of Kiama further inland, collectively accounting for 20,200 voters. This counterbalances Gilmore’s loss of Batemans Bay to Eden-Monaro in the south. Labor’s strength around Shellharbour and weakness around Batemans Bay are just enough to shift Gilmore into the notional Labor column, turning a Liberal margin of 4.1 per cent into a Labor margin of 0.2 per cent. At Throsby’s northern coastal end, the unpopulated Spring Hill industrial area north of Port Kembla is transferred to Cunningham. More substantially, Cunningham gains northern areas in the Shire of Sutherland: at the coastal end, it gains the Royal National Park along with Bundeena and Maianbar on the southern bank of the Hacking River from Cook, adding 1800 voters; further inland, it gains 4900 voters in and around the Princes Highway centres of Heathcote and Waterfall from Hughes. Cook makes two gains along its western boundary from Hughes: at Como and Bonnet Bay in the north and in the eastern part of Sutherland further south, collectively adding 8200 voters. Hughes’s losses to Cook and Cunningham, along with the loss of Liverpool to Fowler, counterbalance the substantial gain from Banks north of the Georges River.

Please note that this thread is expressly for discussion of the redistribution. If you would like to discuss something else, please do so on the thread below.

UPDATE: The report from the AEC can be viewed here. Quick as a flash, Antony Green has posted estimated new margins.

UPDATE (26/7/09): Here’s an overview of the redistribution proposal. I don’t pretend that this makes riveting reading, but having done it will make my life easier when I get around to compiling my federal election guide.

The proposed new electorate of Wright is the commissioners’ solution to the problem of the Gold Coast’s ongoing population explosion, taking the interior areas from the Gold Coast trio of Fadden (6,200 voters), Moncrieff (5,100 voters) and McPherson (5,600 voters). It also takes most of the geographical area of both Forde (38,600 voters), which previously played the role of buffering the Gold Coast on the inland side, and Blair (30,500 voteres), which provides the Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim rural areas. At previous elections Wright would have been a safe seat for the Liberals, but the force of the swings to Labor here in 2007 (14.4 per cent in Forde) was such that the current notional Liberal margin is 3.5 per cent.

The creation of Wright has required Forde and Blair to be redrawn dramatically, the latter for the third time since it was created at the 1998 election (at which it was contested unsuccessfully by Pauline Hanson). Blair has effectively lost its least populous areas in the south (centred around Boonah) to Wright, in exchange for the least populous areas of Dickson and Fisher in the north (respectively the old shires of Esk and Kilcoy, home to 11,600 and 2,600 voters, which have been merged into Somerset Regional Council). The changes render Blair virtually unrecognisable in geographic terms, but it maintains the area around Ipswich which provides most of its voters (76,900 out of 94,600). However, the strongly conservative nature of the area transferred to Wright and the relatively marginal Somerset areas have boosted the Labor margin significantly, from 4.5 per cent to 7.4 per cent.

Forde is now concentrated on the gap between the Brisbane and Gold Coast urban areas, including 18,700 voters around Upper Coomera who have been transferred from Fadden. The changes have slightly reduced Labor’s margin, from 2.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent. This northward expansion has produced knock-on effects through southern Brisbane, Rankin in particular to be rationalised from an awkward east-to-west orientation to an almost square-shaped electorate centred on Woodridge. Shailer Park in the east and Park Ridge in the south are to be transferred from Rankin to Forde, while 8,100 voters at Browns Plains, Greenbank and Boronia Heights in the west go to Wright. To the north, Rankin swaps territory with Moreton, gaining 10,400 voters in Calamvale while losing 3,000 in Underwood further east. Further territory adjacent to the Calamvale transfer, accounting for 14,700 voters from Algester south to Parkinson, are to be gained from Oxley. Oxley’s dramatic growth has been further reflected by the loss to Moreton of two substantial areas accounting for 11,800 voters around Acacia Ridge and Oxley itself. These are strong areas for Labor, contributing to a handy boost in marginal Moreton from 4.8 per cent to 6.1 per cent and a harmless cut in safe Oxley from 14.1 per cent to 11.3 per cent. Oxley also loses 5,500 voters at its western end, around Collingwood Park and Springfield Central, to Blair. In the north, the rationalisation of Oxley’s boundary with Ryan along the Brisbane River sees it gain 17,100 voters at Middle Park and Jindalee.

The seats at the coastal end of southern Brisbane remain unchanged, namely Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, the Labor-leaning marginal Bonner and the knife-edge Liberal-held Bowman (although the latter loses 934 voters in Carbrook to Forde, allowing it to be contained entirely within the City of Redland). North of the river, significant changes have been made to Ryan, which due to low enrolment growth and the aforementioned loss of its territory south of the river has acquired the western part of the electorate of Brisbane, taking 23,200 voters in Ferny Grove, Keperra and Ashgrove. This amounts to a transfusion of Labor support from Brisbane, where Labor member Arch Bevis’s margin is cut from 6.8 per cent to 3.7 per cent, to Ryan, where Liberal member Michael Johnson’s margin is cut from 3.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent. Brisbane has in turn been compensated by absorbing 27,400 voters to the east in the Liberal-leaning Clayfield and Ascot area, previously in Lilley, and 2,500 voters around Auchenflower from Ryan. However, it also loses 5,000 voters in a strip from Stafford Heights and Everton Park to Lilley.

Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley has undergone further radical change due to a rationalisation of its northern neighbour Petrie, formerly an over-elongated north-south electorate combining two sharply distinct areas. This has been effected through a swap of 38,000 voters in Petrie’s southern spur, from Carseldine south through Aspley to Stafford Heights, in exchange for 12,800 voters in Lilley’s coastal suburbs north of Cabbage Tree Creek, namely Bracken Ridge, Deagon, Sandgate and Brighton. The latter transfer largely accounts for a cut in Labor’s margin in Lilley from 8.6 per cent to 5.9 per cent, and a boost in Petrie from 2.1 per cent to 7.5 per cent. Petrie also gains 24,900 voters in the Labor-leaning Deception Bay area from Longman in the north, contributing to a cut in Labor’s margin in Longman from 3.6 per cent to 1.3 per cent.

Longman has been compensated for this loss with the southern part of Fisher, accounting for 17,000 voters in the outskirts of Caboolture and semi-rural areas to the north-west, as well as a lightly populated area from Dickson (3,700 voters) immediately to the south. The former transfer has produced a series of knock-on effects in electorates to the north: Fisher gains 12,700 voters around Eudlo from northern neighbour Fairfax; Fairfax gains gains 2,100 voters from its northern neighbour Wide Bay; and Wide Bay gains two lightly populated areas from its northern neighbour Hinkler, home to 2,700 voters. Hinkler loses further interior territory around Biggenden to Flynn (1,200 voters) for no corresponding gain, reflecting rapid population growth around Hervey Bay (Hinkler’s other population centres remain Childers and especially Bundaberg).

Flynn has also undergone significant changes resulting from the ongoing relative decline of the remote parts of the state, which see the already expansive electorate of Maranoa absorb Flynn’s western geographical half (the local government areas of Barcaldine, Blackall Tambo, Longreach and Winton, home to 7,200 voters). This increases Maranoa’s share of the state’s area from 31.5 per cent to 41.8 per cent. Flynn has been compensated with 8,200 voters around the substantial population centre of Mount Morgan. This previously formed a salient near the coast in the south of Capricornia, which gains a countervailing transfer of 4,300 voters west of Mackay from Dawson (to which it also loses 300 voters in a negligible transfer further south). The changes in Flynn are good news for Labor member Chris Trevor, whose margin is up from 0.2 per cent to 2.0 per cent.

Population growth in Cairns has required the Cairns-plus-Cape York electorate of Leichhardt to shed territory to its only neighbour, Kennedy, the boundary of which is shifted north to conform with the Tablelands Regional Council for a transfer of 3,400 voters. Kennedy also awkardly acquires the southern Cairns suburb of Edmonton, adding 6,400 voters. Further south, it also gains from Dawson 1,300 voters in the southern hinterland of Townsville and a stretch of Flinders Highway including Ross River. This has been offset by the loss of 7,400 voters in Townsville’s northern outskirts to Herbert. Herbert in turn loses 7,400 voters in the southern Townsville suburbs of Annandale and Wulguru to Dawson. This has produced a small but decisive change in the margin in Herbert, from 0.2 per cent Liberal to 0.4 per cent Labor. The cumulative changes in Dawson reduce Labor’s margin from 3.2 per cent to 2.4 per cent.

Finally, the Toowoomba and Darling Downs electorate of Groom is unchanged.

Other stuff:

• Submissions on the federal redistribution of Queensland have been published. Featured are minutely detailed proposals from the major parties. Interestingly, both Labor and the LNP want new electorates straddling the Warrego Highway between Ipswich and Toowoomba. However, the LNP’s proposed seat of Killen (in honour of Gorton-to-Fraser minister Jim) extends northwards from here, while Labor’s proposed Theodore (in honour of Depression-era Treasurer and party legend “Red Ted”) ambitiously sweeps around Boonah and Beaudesert to the Gold Coast hinterland. The LNP submission interestingly calls for Leichhardt to be drawn into Cairns and its Cape York balance to be transferred to Bob Katter’s electorate of Kennedy. Veteran observer Adam Carr says: “I don’t know why the parties bother with these submissions. They commissioners never take the least bit of notice, in fact they seem to go out of their way not to do what either of the parties want them to do.”

• If you feel like making a suggestion for the New South Wales federal redistribution, submissions are being received until May 1.

• The Liberals are complaining about the high number of people who are incorrectly enrolled, as revealed in the Australian Electoral Commission’s answer to a parliamentary question. The average error rate was 3.5 per cent, mostly involving failures to update enrolment following changes of address. Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson creatively notes this is “greater than the margin by which 33 seats were decided at the last federal election”. His line of logic has failed to impress Bernard Keane at Crikey.

• Dig Possum’s booth result maps.

• I recently had occasion to discuss Malcolm Mackerras’s concerns with New Zealand mixed-member proportional system, in which I noted its similarities and subtle differences with Germany’s election system. In doing so I erroneously stated that mid-term vacancies in German electorates are filled not through by-elections as in New Zealand, but by “unelected candidates from the party’s national lists”. In fact, the lists are not national, as Mackerras writes to explain:

My recent article in Crikey on the forthcoming by-election for Mount Albert in New Zealand seems to have created a minor confusion. Trying to limit my number of words I allowed you to write this précis in your Poll Bludger blog: “New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system is modelled on Germany’s, but departs from it in that vacated constituency seats are filled by unelected candidates from the party’s national lists – which New Zealand was obviously loath to do as it would randomly match members to electorates with which they have had no connection.” That is not quite right so I had best elaborate. Germany is a federation whereas New Zealand is a unitary state. In Germany there are no national party lists – there are Land party lists. A German Land is what we Anglos would call a state or province. Consequently if, for example, a constituency member for a Munich seat were to depart he/she would be replaced by the next unelected candidate of his/her party on the Bavarian list. Since New Zealand is more like a German Land than Germany as a whole I contend that any logical New Zealand MMP system would allow Labour’s Damien Peter O’Connor automatically to become the member for Mount Albert, rather than put the Labour Party to the cost of a by-election it might lose. O’Connor was, for several years, the member for West Coast-Tasman until he was defeated by the National Party’s candidate at the November 2008 general election. Since constituency members switching from the North Island to the South Island (and vice versa) is so common in New Zealand I can see no reason why O’Connor should not automatically become the next member for Mount Albert.

So, how did the present situation arise? It all goes back to the Royal Commission Report in December 1986. Because of my interest in these matters I took sabbatical leave in New Zealand for that semester so I could be there when the Report was published. I was shocked by it. The feature which most shocked me was the number of howlers I found in the Royal Commission’s Report. Among them was this recommendation on page 44: “Vacancies caused by the resignation or death of a sitting constituency member would be filled by a by-election as under the present system. List members would be replaced by the next available person on the relevant party list.” No further elaboration. No discussion as to why New Zealand should copy Germany in so many other ways but not in this way.

So I set about to find out how the Royal Commission could have written that howler, along with the others. The explanation I came up with (which I am convinced is correct) is that when Royal Commission members visited Germany they never thought to ask the German experts as to how Germany actually fills its vacancies. Meanwhile the German hosts did not think to inform their New Zealand visitors about this feature of German law. Both sides assumed their position to be self-evident. The difference is that the Germans actually understood their system. The New Zealanders never did – so the Royal Commission recommended to the people of New Zealand that they should vote for a system which the Royal Commission did not understand. That 54 per cent of New Zealanders actually voted for this ratbag scheme is easily explained. The issue of electoral reform was overshadowed by unpopular economic reform. The Business Roundtable was far too influential in economic policy making under both Labour and National governments. When the Business Roundtable asked the people of New Zealand not to vote for MMP the popular reaction was to say: “If they say vote against it that is the best argument to vote for it.”

Meanwhile John Key, now Prime Minister, promised during the election campaign that there would be another referendum on MMP. No details were given. So I took the liberty of seeking an interview with him to press my proposal which is that there should be two referendums. The first would accompany the next general election and be indicative only – the kind of legally non-binding vote which we in Australia would call a plebiscite. At that referendum, to be held in conjunction with the November 2011 general election, the people would be offered the choice of two alternative systems. The winner of that would then run off against MMP at a referendum to be held in conjunction with the November 2014 general election and that, of course, would be legally binding.

The two alternative systems would be the Single Transferable Vote (STV), what we in Australia call Hare-Clark. That is the one for which I would vote if I were a New Zealander – or a British Columbian for that matter. The other choice would be the Mixed Member Majoritarian (MMM) system, known in New Zealand for many years as Supplementary Member. That is quite simple to explain. The basic structure of MMP would stay. Every elector would get two votes, one for a constituency candidate, one for a party. The party list seats would be distributed proportionally between the parties. Under such a system by-elections would be quite logical because that would be a mixed system, not one of proportional representation. I have no idea which of STV or MMM would win in 2011. I am in no doubt, however, that the winning system of 2011 would easily defeat MMP in 2014.

• The redistribution of Tasmania’s electoral boundaries has been finalised. Several amendments have been made from the original proposal, which you can read about here. Antony Green calculates the new boundaries have increased Labor’s margin in Braddon from 1.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while reducing it in Denison from 15.6 per cent to 15.3 per cent, Franklin from 4.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent and Lyons from 8.8 per cent to 8.4 per cent. Bass remains at 1.0 per cent.

• A bill to introduce fixed terms was introduced to the Northern Territory parliament on Wednesday. David Bartlett says similar legislation will be introduced in Tasmania next year, confirming the next election will be held on March 20, 2010 and setting up an ongoing clash with South Australia’s elections (to Antony Green’s dismay). I’ll have much more to say on fixed four-year terms next week.

• Tomorrow is Victorian local government election day, which in most cases means today is the last day for submission of postal votes. Read and comment about it here. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has council and ward map files for viewing in Google Earth.

• In Queensland, poll-driven decisions on water policy are being seen as a harbinger of an early election.

Big surprise: a radical redrawing of the remote areas divides them evenly between O’Connor and Kalgoorlie, the former taking the entire northern half of the state and Kalgoorlie most of the south. I don’t imagine Wilson Tuckey will be too happy this morning.

Stirling (Liberal 1.3%): Nothing too radical has occurred in the metropolitan area. Stirling has gained the salient south of Beach Road on the coast from Moore, lost Scarborough to Curtin but gained Joondanna, gained Coolbinia from Perth but lost the west of Morley. My rough calculation is that this cuts the Liberal margin to 0.8 per cent. CORRECTION: Sorry, made an error there: it actually looks like the margin hasn’t changed at all.

Cowan (Liberal 1.7%): This was one of two seats in the country that went from Labor to Liberal at the last election. The electorate has been brought down to size through the loss of the Noranda area south of Reid Highway to Perth and the new suburbs around Tapping in the electorate’s north-west to Moore, cutting the margin by about 0.8 per cent.

Swan (Liberal 0.1%): The other seat in the country that went from Labor to Liberal. It has gained extra territory in the south including Ferndale, Lynwood and Langford, which by my reckoning damages Liberal member Steve Irons 0.7 per cent and puts the seat back into the Labor column. Furthermore, the new areas swung quite heavily to Labor at the election.

Hasluck (Labor 1.3%): The one seat in WA that Labor won from the Liberals has gained Huntingdale and Southern River in the south from Canning, while losing a very small number of voters in the north to Pearce. I estimate that this has knocked 0.2 per cent off Labor member Sharryn Jackson’s margin.

O’Connor: Going on booths alone, I calculate O’Connor has a Liberal margin of 7.2 per cent.

UPDATE: Antony Green explains all. In a nutshell, the metropolitan amendments are of only marginal interest. The big deal is that Kalgoorlie has gone from being a potentially loseable Liberal seat to a very safe one, which has been achieved by cutting the margin in O’Connor from 16.6 per cent to 7.3 per cent (on Antony’s initial calculation). I might venture that this overstates the Liberals’ safety in O’Connor due to Wilson Tuckey’s personal vote (which is especially high in the part of O’Connor that carries over to the newly drawn seat: the southern coast end was only added to the electorate at the previous redistribution), and the fact that Labor have played dead in O’Connor lately to aid the Nationals. For example, the Allendale Primary School and Geraldton Primary School booths in Geraldton respectively split 59-41 and 56-44 in Tuckey’s favour at the 2007 election, whereas Labor won them 51-49 and 55-45 at the 2005 state election. Nonetheless, the new O’Connor still looks more comfortable for the Liberals than did the old Kalgoorlie, so they have reason to be pleased.

The changes are also significant in intra-Coalition terms. Normally it might be assumed that a 72-year-old member would have retirement in mind, but Wilson Tuckey might be rated an exception. If he’s not in the mood to go quietly, he will have a much harder time now he has to persuade preselectors from the unfamiliar Kimberley, Pilbara and Gascoyne. Then there’s the Nationals, who have been hoping O’Connor might give them their first WA House of Representatives seat since 1974. Their hopes, if any, must now be pinned on Kalgoorlie, which takes not only Albany and half their Wheatbelt heartland from O’Connor, but also Manjimup and Bridgetown-Greenbushes from Forrest and areas as near to Perth as Wandering from Pearce. The latter areas are not strong for them, so it can be expected that they will lodge a fairly spirited objection.

In other news, the AEC has commenced a redistribution for Tasmania, it having gone the maximum seven years without one. The AEC’s figures respectively put enrolment in Bass, Denison and Lyons at 1.2 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent below average, with Braddon and Franklin 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent above. So the redistribution will presumably involve a transfer of territory from Franklin to Lyons, which is unlikely to make much difference to anyone’s electoral prospects. Changes to the more sensitive Bass and Braddon are likely to be negligible. Uniquely, Tasmanian boundary changes have effect at both federal and state level.

I am promoting it partly because my contention that it will be of little electoral consequence has been disputed by Scotty in comments:

The most likely booths to go to Lyons are probably Labor’s best larger booths in Franklin. Bridgewater, Gagebrook and maybe even Risdon Vale if moved to Lyons would significantly shrink the margin in Franklin. In turn this would make Lyons much safer. This may result in a preselection in Lyons as Dick Adams’ personal vote is no longer needed to win that seat.

Furthermore, it has belatedly come to my notice that the Tasmanian Electoral Commission has published proposed boundaries for a redistribution of the state’s 15 upper house districts. Given the lack of party competition in upper house elections, it’s hard to say what the significance of this is, if any. I do have a question though for Tasmanian state politics buffs: given that the upper house never dissolves, when and how do the changes take effect?

More on the redistribution from Peter Tucker.

In the meantime we have a redistribution in train for Western Australia’s existing 15 seats, which despite the state’s rapid growth will not need to increase before the next election. Population volatility has led to substantial variations in enrolment across the electorates, with growth trends confounding the projections used to conduct the last redistribution in 2000. The following table shows actual enrolment at that time; the projections then arrived at for May 2004, three-and-a-half years hence; actual enrolment figures from the October 2004 election; and enrolment as of last month.

It is particularly notable that Moore, heretofore the quintessential growth corridor electorate, has fallen well short of the AEC’s projections at the time of the 2000 redistribution. Enrolment in the electorate took seven years to grow 6.9 per cent, against a projected 17.2 per cent in three-and-a-half years. This is a similar rate of growth to other Perth suburban seats, which came in between 1 per cent and 10 per cent. The real action has been in semi-rural Canning (32.5 per cent), Pearce (29.2 per cent) and Brand (24.8 per cent), along with outer metropolitan Cowan (22.0 per cent). Growth in the state’s south-west has boosted enrolment in safe Liberal Forrest by 19.6 per cent, but further afield O’Connor and Kalgoorlie have remained stagnant.

It will thus be necessary for the redistribution to cut upwards of 10,000 voters from Canning, Pearce, Brand, Cowan and Forrest, paring back existing over-enrolment and accounting for projected growth over the next three-and-a-half years. Significant expansion will be required not only for ever-declining Kalgoorlie and O’Connor, but also for Moore to correct for its over-estimated growth prospects last time. In the metropolitan area, Curtin, Swan and Tangney will need to take in new areas, but little adjustment will be necessary for Perth, Stirling and Fremantle (which is not to say that these electorates will not be redrawn due to knock-on effects).

While it never pays to second-guess redistributions, it’s tempting to draw a scenario in which Kalgoorlie absorbs all or part of Geraldton from O’Connor, which can easily be compensated by taking some of the territory that Pearce and Forrest need to lose. The need for cuts to adjoining Forrest, Canning and Brand will tempt the commissioners to make most of this required transfer from Forrest, resulting in knock-on transfers to the other two. The required growth in Moore can be accommodated either at the expense of Pearce to the north or Cowan to the east, both of which will need to be cut.