Suddenly Kristina Keneally’s performance doesn’t look so bad. What happened to Labor in Queensland on Saturday is without any precedent in Australian history – certainly not since the Second World War, prior to which the party system tended to be more fluid. Labor can be assured of only six seats, holds the lead in only [...]

LNP OTH LNP LEAD Mackay (vs ALP) 10993 11199 -206 Yeerongpilly (vs ALP) 13416 12655 761 Bulimba (vs ALP) 10702 10806 -104 Maryborough (vs IND) 12028 11734 294 Thuringowa (vs KAP) 10189 9669 520 Tuesday (2pm). Pardon my recent laziness. The LNP now has Maryborough and Thuringowa in the bag: in the former case 1273 [...]

Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region. VOTES SEATS ALP LNP GRN KAP ALP LNP IND KAP Northern Brisbane 31.7% 51.9% 7.5% 6.9% 0 11 0 0 [...]

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there. 9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted. 9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of [...]

GhostWhoVotes reports the final Newspoll of the campaign has the LNP’s two-party preferred lead at a towering 60.8-39.2 (the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final pre-election polls, for which they usually up the sample to about 1800), in line with the general impression elsewhere. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the [...]

UPDATE: The Courier-Mail reports Galaxy’s poll of 800 respondents has Campbell Newman with a clear primary vote lead of 52 per cent to 45 per cent. UPDATE 2: A Morgan phone poll of a grand total of 202 respondents, conducted last night and the night before, has the LNP leading 51 per cent to 28 [...]

Couple more things: • Probably should have checked the ReachTEL site when discussing the Courier-Mail’s reporting on polling done for Katter’s Australian Party over the past few days. The full results for Hinchinbrook and Beaudesert are available there (external party polling, I guess you could call it). They show the KAP’s Jeff Knuth (once a [...]

Couple of things: • I haven’t yet watched yesterday’s leaders debate (which can be viewed in full at the Brisbane Times site), but not many observers are crediting the Channel Nine worm operators’ 76-24 decision in favour of Anna Bligh. Rather, the consensus seems to be that it was the usual scoreless draw. Campbell Newman [...]

Further results from the Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday nights have been published, this time showing who respondents would wish to the lead the LNP in the event that Campbell Newman fails to win Ashgrove. The figures have Lawrence Springborg on 31 per cent, John-Paul Langbroek on 19 per cent, Tim Nicholls on [...]