Thursday, April 13, 2006 – 12:39 pm
The South Australian election guide has now been put to bed with each electorate entry appended with a detailed post-match summary. For the first time, I have taken the effort to carefully scrutinise booth results in each seat. Heavy-duty hair-splitters might care to note that I was compelled to base these comparisons on incomplete election [...]
Saturday, March 18, 2006 – 3:36 pm
11.28pm. Okay, one last thing – Geoff Lambert notes in comments that Labor’s surplus over the fourth quota for the upper house is going steadily down, which suggests it will be their preferences that decide the final spot. If so, it will go to the Greens rather than the third No Pokies candidate. Keep your [...]
Saturday, March 18, 2006 – 3:18 pm
Peter Brent at Mumble tells me that I have tipped Labor to win 29 seats from 47, which I had never bothered to tally up before. Make it 30 – a quarter of an hour from the close of polls, be it noted that I have also thrown in Newland. A Labor insider quoted in [...]
Saturday, March 18, 2006 – 4:46 am
It’s way past my bedtime, so readers will have to make what they will of the following last-minute poll results. Tomorrow I will reconsider my South Australian election guide assessments one last time, and most likely make a few adjustments in Labor’s favour.
Firstly, today’s Newspoll for South Australia:
Secondly, today’s Advertiser poll:
Thirdly, yesterday’s Newspoll for Tasmania:
Finally, [...]
Friday, March 17, 2006 – 10:48 am
No Advertiser poll today – presumably they are holding back for tomorrow. Roy Morgan has produced its traditional day-before poll, but it’s hard to take seriously even by their standards. The sample is a mere 420, and the surveys were conducted "on the weekends between February 4/5 and March 11/12". Separate results are provided [...]
Thursday, March 16, 2006 – 11:53 am
Election punditry has been an agreeably straightforward matter during the South Australian campaign, with published opinion polling and reported internal polls all pointing in much the same direction. That’s all changed with two polls in today’s Advertiser covering the neighbouring electorates of Norwood and Hartley, located due east of the city. Taken on Tuesday and [...]
Wednesday, March 15, 2006 – 1:15 am
As the South Australian election campaign limps into the home strait, the re-election of Mike Rann’s Labor government appears as much a foregone conclusion as ever. That’s despite earlier reports that Labor hard-heads were worried about what the Liberals might have up their sleeve in the final week, for which the cash-strapped party has been [...]
Sunday, March 12, 2006 – 3:51 pm
After last night’s sort-of-triumph in the Victoria Park by-election, the morning has brought two opinion polls to warm the Labor supporter’s heart. After a quiet week on the polling front from the previously prodigious Advertiser, its News Limited stablemate the Sunday Mail has published a survey of 607 voters showing Labor with 45 per cent [...]
Friday, March 10, 2006 – 1:19 pm
Readers who think they’ve seen it all are invited to take a fresh look at the Poll Bludger’s South Australian election guide, which is now equipped with a number of exciting new features. The main point of interest for most readers is the predicted outcomes for each seat, an exercise in which I continue to [...]
Friday, March 10, 2006 – 12:06 am
Our good friends at Upperhouse.Info have done their bit to inform speculation on the likely election outcome for the South Australian Legislative Council with a nifty, easy-to-use election calculator. Just plug in your guess of each party’s total vote, and it chews through the mind-numbingly complicated preference flows (based on the almost-accurate assumption that everyone [...]