Even better for Labor so far as tomorrow’s headlines are concerned is an eight-point improvement in Julia Gillard’s net personal rating and a six-point improvement as preferred prime minister. Gillard’s approval is up five on the previous poll to 40 per cent and her disapproval is down three to 55 per cent, and she has shot to a 48-46 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister after trailing 46-42 last time. These results are very similar to the November poll, and the shifts probably represent a correction on an aberrant result in December. That Gillard has gained six points on preferred prime minister without taking a chunk out of Abbott’s rating is curious, and calls attention to the much lower undecided rating Nielsen produces on this question (ranging from 6 per cent to 12 per cent since the election) compared with Newspoll (15 per cent to 25 per cent). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings meanwhile are essentially unchanged: approval steady on 41 per cent, and disapproval up one to 54 per cent (his equal worst results from Nielsen on both counts).

One fly in the ointment for Gillard is that Nielsen has, reasonably enough, put her head-to-head with Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Rudd predictably holding a commanding 57 per cent to 35 per cent lead. However, even this is a much better result for Gillard than when the question was last asked at Labor’s polling nadir in October, when Rudd led 61 per cent to 30 per cent.

Numbers, it almost goes without saying, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. UPDATE: Full tables, including state breakdowns and such, here.

UPDATE: Essential Research once again has the two-party vote at 54-46, as it has in every poll since December 12 (and not since September has it failed to produce a result of either 54-46 or 55-45). Labor however has dropped a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now at 33 per cent (their weakest result since October 24), with the Coalition steady on 47 per cent and the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. A question on the government’s industrial relations regime finds 24 per cent believing it favours workers, 25 per cent believing it favours employers and 34 per cent finding it balances the interests of both, which would be a very pleasing set of numbers from the government’s point of view. The poll also has 15 per cent of respondents saying Australian workers are “very productive” and 59 per cent “quite productive”. Also canvassed was trust in various public institutions, which has the Australian Defence Force on top. Curiously, the least trusted out of those included were “business and banking regulators”.

The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election

Also:

Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk has ruled out standing aside to allow for Campbell Newman to return to his old job if he fails to win Ashgrove. This possibility was created by the new election timetable which pushes the council elections out to April 28. A troubling precedent for Newman is the difficulty long-term Labor lord mayor Clem Jones had trying to win state and federal seats in the early 1970s – old stagers recall that the Liberals did well telling voters they should vote against Jones because he was needed at city hall. Campbell Newman meanwhile has taken offence at Labor flyers linking him to the infamous newspaper column by Cairns LNP candidate Gavin King, in which King argues women who are raped while drunk are partly to blame for their own misfortune.

Dalrymple (LNP 15.8%): The Tablelands Advertiser reports that Rosa Lee Long, One Nation member for Tablelands from 2001 to 2009, says the LNP approached her to stand as its candidate. Long contested Dalrymple after Tablelands was abolished at the 2009 election, but was defeated by Shane Knuth, who had held the abolished Charters Towers for the LNP and has since jumped ship for Katter’s Australian Party. The LNP candidate is Liz Schmidt, who has a high profile locally as a livestock transport operator.

Nanango (Independent 2.9% versus LNP): The Australian reports the LNP is insisting it is on track to win both Dalrymple and Nanango, the latter to be contested by former test cricketer and local farmer Carl Rackemann following the retirement of long-serving independent Dorothy Pratt.

Mount Isa (Labor 5.7%): Labor on the other hand reportedly concedes Bob Katter’s son Robbie Katter will be “hard to beat” in Mount Isa, where he will attempt to unseat Labor’s Betty Kiernan. Robbie Katter is another who claims he was approached by LNP talent scouts. His father meanwhile is predicting his party will win at least 20 seats, which not too many would credit.

Logan (Labor 13.9%): LNP candidate Peter Anderson-Barr, a police sergeant, has withdrawn after media reports from 2004 were circulated regarding an incident in which he allegedly struck a person at the Surfers Paradise police post.

Mundingburra (Labor 6.6%): Former Thuringowa councillor David Moyle will run for Katter’s Australian Party after the withdrawal of their original candidate Jason Grigg. Moyle admits to having variously been a member of Labor, Liberal and the Nationals, and sought Nationals preselection for Thuringowa in 2006.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Bligh explained today that it had been her intention to hold a poll on March 3, but she will now hold off until after the inquiry reports on March 16. This amounts to an effective campaign of over eight weeks (although she will not visit the Governor to officially call the election until February 19), which may be without precedent in Australia at least so far as past three or four decades are concerned. It had generally been thought that a long campaign would be in Bligh’s interests, as it allows an incumbent trailing by a long margin to hope that either the Opposition Leader or the party behind him might fracture under the pressure.

The state’s local government elections, previously due on March 31, will now be delayed until after Easter to allow for more clear air after the state election. It was reported earlier this month that the Electoral Commission of Queensland wanted a six months gap on either side of the council elections for logistical reasons.

For comprehensive details on each of the state’s 89 electorates, look no further than the Poll Bludger’s election guide.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

The West’s Gareth Parker also reports that Channel Seven journalist Reece Whitby, who unsuccessfully ran in Morley at the 2008 election after being recruited by Alan Carpenter, now hopes to run in Belmont, which Ripper will vacate at the next election. The report says Whitby has “quietly spent the past three years attempting to bolster hims support base” in Morley, to the extent that he is now president of the party’s branch there, but he threatens to be squeezed out by Nollamara MP Janine Freeman’s determination to recover the seat for Labor. Meanwhile, the Fremantle Herald reports ABC TV gardening program presenter Josh Byrne has ruled himself out of contention for Labor preselection in Fremantle. The Herald reports the preselection now looms as a three-horse race between Fremantle councillors Josh Wilson and Dave Hume, and Maritime Union of Australia deputy secretary Adrian Evans (hat tip to Frank Calabrese).

Port Adelaide appears the more interesting of the two constests by virtue of the candidacy of Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson, who according to a poll published by The Advertiser today has 23 per cent support compared with 48 per cent for the Labor candidate, 14 per cent for a LDP that clearly stands to gain from homeless or just confused Liberals, and 9 per cent for Sue Lawrie (the sample was a small 475 and the margin of error a high 4.5 per cent; a larger sample poll in September which included the Liberals as an option had Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred). Port Adelaide has attracted a hefty nine candidates, who are in ballot paper order:

Sue Lawrie (Independent): The Liberal candidate from 2010.

Colin Thomas (Independent Ban Live Animal Exports): Beneficiary of SA’s law allowing indepenents five words to explain themselves on the ballot paper.

Bob Briton (Independent Communist Australia): Un-independent communism no longer being enough of a concern to achieve registration.

Elizabeth Pistor (Democratic Labor Party).

Grant Carlin (One Nation).

Susan Close (Labor). Department for Environment and Natural Resources executive and Left faction convenor.

Justin McArthur (Greens).

Gary Johanson (Independent): See above.

Stephen Humble (Liberal Democratic Party).

Ramsay has attracted only four candidates, with not only Liberal but also the Greens declining to enter the fray (UPDATE: As noted above, nominations hadn’t closed when I wrote this – but they have now, on January 26, so the following list is complete and in ballot paper order).

Mark Aldridge (Independent Voice of the Community): You can learn more about him in this post’s comments thread.

Ruth Beach (Greens).

Trevor Grace (Independent Trevor Grace Save the Unborn): Anti-abortion, would be my guess.

Zoe Bettison (Labor): Former state director for Labor’s public affairs firm (some prefer “spin doctors”) of choice Hawker Britton. Antony Green relates she has also been party secretary in the Northern Territory and a ministerial adviser in the NT government, government relations manager at Great Southern Rail, and that she got her start with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.

Chris Walsh (One Nation).

Mark Lena (Free Australia).

Christopher Steele (Liberal Democrats).

More detail available from Antony Green.

The decisive moment came on Friday when Ripper was told he had lost the support of the seven-member “Missos” Left, including the party’s lower house deputy Roger Cook and upper house leader Sue Ellery (not to mention United Voice a.k.a. LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly). This development activated the latent opposition to Ripper among the eight-member element of the Right which had supported Ben Wyatt’s abortive challenge last year, which included both the mooted contenders – McGowan and Peter Tinley. While some who didn’t like the idea of the former evidently gave encouragement to the latter, Tinley simplified matters by declaring himself too inexperienced. There were also at least three members of the “Metallies” Left (Mick Murray, Fran Logan and David Templeman) who saw things the same way as the Missos, together with factional independents Tom Stephens (a long-standing Ripper foe) and Tony Buti.

This collectively made for at least 19 members willing to back McGowan over Ripper out of a caucus of 37. The tipping point having been reached, by yesterday any holdouts among the Metallies faction had come round to Ripper. Ripper’s only remaining loyalists were the “New Right” faction, which is an alliance built around Michelle Roberts and the “Shoppies” Right, together with Ripper himself and his partner Ljiljanna Ravlich (once colleagues in the now barely existent Centre faction). The West Australian today reports that Ripper retained 12 supporters in total, so I presume by process of elimination this must have included one out of Adele Farina (who has a background in the Centre) and Linda Savage (an independent).

Part of the steady drip of bad news for Ripper was Monday’s announcement by Bassendean MP Martin Whitely that he would not seek another term, which came with a suggestion that Ripper should follow his example. Whitely further complained of “factional bullies who have tried to end my career on two previous occasions”. One of those he may well have been referring to, the aforementioned Dave Kelly of the Missos, was tipped by Gary Adshead of The West Australian yesterday as a possible successor to his seat. Adshead also identifies the proposal which has been floated for Nollamara MP Janine Freeman (whose seat has been renamed Mirrabooka in the redistribution) to recover Morley from the Liberals as being motivated by a desire to gain a further seat for the Missos, and further reports the faction has designs on Ripper’s own seat of Belmont. It had earlier been reported the seat might be of interest to state secretary Simon Mead, who is also associated with the faction.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.