Quarterly poll aggregate breakdowns, state polling from Essential Research, and extensive accounts of preselection friction emerging from the factional warfare engulfing the Liberal Party in New South Wales.
Labor’s win in 1961 was the only interruption to National/Country Party dominance in the north coast New South Wales seat of Cowper since the party’s foundation, although current member Luke Hartsuyker was run close when Kevin Rudd led Labor to power in 2007.
The latest Newspoll result from Victoria finds the year-old Labor government returning to earth with a thud – although Liberal leader Matthew Guy doesn’t appear to be making a favourable impression either.
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.