The Poll Bludger » Advertiser poll

Advertiser: 55-45 to Labor in SA

William Bowe — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:50:43 +0000

The Advertiser has published an in-house poll from a modest 475 respondents to gauge the electoral impact of recent events surrounding Mike Rann. The answer would appear to be, not much: Labor maintains a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, and leads on the primary vote 43.2 per cent to 38.6 per cent after distribution of the undecided. This compares with 56-44 in a poll which escaped my notice when it was published in the Sunday Mail a month ago. Eighty-seven per cent of respondents said “the circumstances surrounding the recent assault” would have no bearing on their vote; 8 per cent said they would be less likely to vote Labor, while 3 per cent said more likely.

Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide

William Bowe — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:09:56 +0000

Adelaide’s News Limited Sunday tabloid, the Sunday Mail, today carries a poll with a small sample of 483 showing state Labor with a two-party lead of 64-36 among Adelaide voters. Remarkable as that might sound, Antony Green calculates it’s in the same ballpark as the 2006 election, when the Adelaide two-party result was 62.6-37.4. Antony further observes that the Sunday Mail article absurdly compares this purely metropolitan result with the statewide two-party figure from 2006 to conjure a 7 per cent Labor swing that would cost the Liberals eight of their 14 seats. In reality, the poll points to a roughly status quo result, although that’s quite bad enough for the Liberals given the scale of Labor’s win in 2006.

Advertiser: 56-44 to Labor in SA

William Bowe — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 16:44:40 +0000

The Adelaide Advertiser has published a poll on South Australian state voting intention from a sample of 522, showing Labor leading the Liberals 56-44 on two-party preferred. After distribution of the 12 per cent undecided, Labor leads 43 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote. Breakdowns between city and country show Labor leading 57-43 outside Adelaide. However, the previous Advertiser poll published last September had the Liberals leading in the country 58-42, pointing to a scarcely credible 15 point turn-around – although the earlier poll had a total sample of just 365. Martin Hamilton-Smith is far ahead of his party rivals as preferred Liberal leader.

Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Labor in SA

William Bowe — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:35:04 +0000

The Adelaide Advertiser has published a small-sample (365) poll of state voting intention which gives Labor a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for Liberal after distribution of informal and undecided. The paper’s previous state poll in February had 476 respondents, and showed Labor leading 57-43. Respondents were also asked how the current leaders compare with Alexander Downer, which takes the idea of his entry into state politics a little more seriously than I would have. The Advertiser blotted its polling copybook with this dubious effort in early August, but its long-term record isn’t so bad (although it usually uses larger samples). The polling is conducted in-house, I believe by its classified advertising staff.