• Paul Henderson’s Labor government has survived today’s no-confidence debate in the Northern Territory parliament, disappointing those hoping for a precedent-setting no-confidence motion and possibly an election to tide them over until the double whammy in South Australia and Tasmania next March. Nelson independent Gerry Wood announced he had reached an agreement to back Labor on confidence supply in the interests of “stable government”. Wood’s decision rendered irrelevant the defection of Macdonnell MP Alison Anderson, who deprived Labor of its one-seat majority and appeared ready to back the Country Liberal Party to bring down the government.

• Margaret May, the long-serving, low-profile Liberal member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Gold Coast News reports she is “battling serious health concerns”. Newspaper reports have been taking for granted that the opening will be of interest to Peter Dutton, who went down to the wire in his outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson in 2007 and has been further damaged by the redistribution proposal.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell is being “pressured” to purge parliamentary ranks of dead wood/members standing in the way of his sources’ promotion prospects. Those named are deputy leader and North Shore MP Jillian Skinner, Wakehurst MP Brad Hazzard, Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, Castle Hill MP Michael Richardson and Cronulla MP Malcolm Kerr. Skinner, Hazzard and Merton are named by Clennell as supporters of O’Farrell, who is said to harbour ongoing concerns about the leadership ambitions of Manly MP Michael Baird. Baird and Willoughby MP Gladys Berejiklian are said to be possible successors to Skinner in the deputy’s position.

• The hearing into Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano’s challenge against her defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the Queensland state election in March has begun, with lawyers to sum up their cases on Monday. The LNP claims to have found enough routine-sounding anomalies to justify overturning Kilburn’s 74-vote win or having a new election declared, although the Electoral Commission of Queensland argues otherwise. Mark Oberhardt of the Courier-Mail reports a judgement is expected next month.

• Shawn O’Brien offers a beginners guide to fixed term reform for federal parliament at Online Opinion.

UPDATE: Oz in comments reports the sample was but 500, according to the print edition.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rees’s approval rating is down three to 34 per cent, which is where it was in November-December. However, Barry O’Farrell’s disapproval rating (37 per cent) exceeds his approval (35 per cent) for the first time. O’Farrell has nonetheless narrowed the gap as preferred premier from 34-29 to 33-31.

• Silly Steve Fielding joined with the Coalition on Wednesday to vote down government electoral reforms that would tie public funding for election candidates to their electoral expenditure, lower the threshold for disclosure of donations to $1000 from $10,000 (which the Howard government used its Senate majority to jack it up to), ban foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50, and require parties to disclose donations every six months rather than annually. The sticking point is Fielding’s insistence that the government also arbitrarily cap public funding to political parties at $10 million. The bill was reintroduced to the House yesterday.

• Submissions have been published in response to the federal government’s green paper on donations, funding and expenditure.

• Responding to mounting speculation she will take on Don Randall in Canning at the next federal election, senior Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan tells The West Australian: “It’s something that I’d consider but it’s far too early. The election is a long way away and it’s not something a decision can be made on until early next year.”

• The South Australian Liberals have picked a new candidate for the state seat of Mawson to replace former Kingston MHR Kym Richardson, who was charged in December with attempting to pervert the course of justice by impersonating a police officer. Matthew Donovan, described by the local Southern Times Messenger newspaper as a “self-employed importer and property developer”, won preselection ahead of Heidi Harris, adviser to Shadow Transport Minister Duncan McFetridge and unsuccessful candidate for federal preselection in Mayo; Heidi Greaves, public servant, former Onkaparinga councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Elder; and Alana Sparrow, Housing Industry Association lawyer and former media adviser to Richardson.

• The Daily Telegraph reports that NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell “will hire a team of constitutional lawyers to explore recall provisions to end fixed four-year terms for incompetent governments”. This would involve provisions for the Governor to “sack a corrupt or useless government” if called on to do so by public petitions, presumably in a fashion similar to that which brought Arnold Schwarzenegger to power in California. UPDATE: More from a skeptical Imre Salusinszky at The Australian.

• Chris Back this week took his place in the Senate, filling the vacancy created by the departure of Western Australian Liberal Chris Ellison.

UPDATE: Antony Green employs the good old-fashioned uniform two-party swing method to calculate which Labor seats would fall to the Coalition if the result of this poll was borne out. However, Antony concedes that “with a third of voters off with the Greens and ‘Others’, more than admitting they will vote Labor, I’m not sure that analysis based on uniform 2-party swing is very useful”. That being so, I’ve taken a different approach: changing the results in each electorate in proportion to the shift indicated in the poll and applying the same preference distributions as last time. No doubt this is statistically clumsy, but accepting the exercise as a bit of fun (unless you’re one of the dwindling band of Labor loyalists), here’s what I’ve come up with. Coalition gains from Labor: Camden, Cessnock, Drummoyne, Gosford, Granville, Heathcote, Londonderry, Macquarie Fields, Maitland, Menai, Miranda, Monaro, Mulgoa, Penrith, Riverstone, Rockdale, Ryde, Swansea, The Entrance, Wollondilly, Wyong. Greens gains from Labor: Balmain, Coogee, Heffron, Marrickville. Independent gains from Labor, should the relevant candidates choose to run again: Charlestown (Paul Scarfe) and Newcastle (John Tate). Result: Coalition 55, Labor 25, Independents 9, Greens 4.