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	<title>The Poll Bludger &#187; Gary Clark</title>
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	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/21/reuters-poll-trend-566-434/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/21/reuters-poll-trend-566-434/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 06:18:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Queensland Election 2009]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Queensland Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chatsworth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Clark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters Poll Trend]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3614</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Reuters Poll Trend is back in business, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn&#8217;t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reuters Poll Trend is <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2009/05/reuters-poll-trend-may09_final.doc">back in business</a>, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn&#8217;t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor&#8217;s two-party lead at 56.6-43.4, down from 57.3-42.7 previously.</p>
<p>Couple of legal matters to attend to:</p>
<p>&#8226; A <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/19/2575351.htm">legal challenge</a> is proceeding against Labor&#8217;s 74-vote win in the seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/qld2009/chatsworth.htm">Chatsworth</a> at the March 21 Queensland election. The LNP cites incidents of double voting and a strong overall result for Labor on absent votes as evidence of fraud. I&#8217;ve got a hat waiting to be eaten if the challenge is upheld.</p>
<p>&#8226; Gary Clark, husband of the former <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/lindsay.htm">Lindsay</a> MP Jackie Kelly, has been given the maximum fine of $1100 and ordered to pay more than $2000 in costs for his role in the distribution of fake pamphlets purporting to be from the &#8220;Islamic Australia Federation&#8221; in the week before the federal election. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/19/2574605.htm">ABC</a> reports Magistrate Geoff Bradd aptly observing it was &#8220;difficult to think of a worst case of breaching the electoral act&#8221;, for which the penalties would seem to need strengthening.</p>
<p>&#8226; Note posts below on the latest state Newspoll results for Western Australia and South Australia.</p>
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		<slash:comments>423</slash:comments>
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		<title>Morgan: 59-41</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/02/morgan-59-41-6/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/02/morgan-59-41-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 14:33:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corangamite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[enrolment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Clark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Chijoff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guy Barnett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Egan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Frydenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kooyong]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lindsay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Ronaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morgan poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pamphlet scandal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarah Henderson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor&#8217;s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor&#8217;s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition&#8217;s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan&#8217;s sample sizes and Coalition primary [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4374/">Roy Morgan face-to-face poll</a> in a fortnight shows Labor&#8217;s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor&#8217;s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition&#8217;s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/01/a-funny-thing-with-morgan-face-to-face-polls/#comments">Possum</a> detects a negative correlation between Morgan&#8217;s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).</p>
<p>Elsewhere:</p>
<p>&#8226; Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania&#8217;s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/bass.htm">Bass</a> at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson&#8217;s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/04/21/tasmanian-upper-house-elections-may-10/">dedicated thread</a>. Further reading from <a href="http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2009/04/legislative-council-election-preview.html">Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics</a>. Further coverage tomorrow from <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/05/tasmanian-legis.html">Antony Green</a>.</p>
<p>&#8226; Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25406750-5013871,00.html">found guilty</a> for his role in the <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/lindsay.htm">Lindsay</a> pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of &#8220;distributing unauthorised electoral material&#8221;, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor &#8220;poss&eacute;&#8221; who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/powerful-kooyong-allies-20090421-ae3g.html">Michelle Grattan of The Age</a> reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals&#8217; <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/kooyong.htm">Kooyong</a> preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).</p>
<p>&#8226; The <a href="http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/libs-put-up-their-hands-for-shot-at-corangamite-seat/1493921.aspx">Warrnambool Standard</a> reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/corangamite.htm">Corangamite</a>. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals&#8217; Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; &#8220;Internet expert and former Howard government adviser&#8221; Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, &#8220;Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8226; Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an <a href="http://inside.org.au/senator-ronaldsons-own-goal/">excellent piece for Inside Story</a>.</p>
<p>&#8226; After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/27/2553157.htm">reportedly has his eyes</a> on <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/bass.htm">Bass</a>, which Labor&#8217;s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.</p>
<p>&#8226; If you thought Possum&#8217;s booth maps was dope, wait till you see <a href="http://www.subrepublic.com/boothmaps/index.html">Nathan Lambert&#8217;s Google Earth files</a>.</p>
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