The Poll Bludger » John Brumby

Newspoll: 60-40 to Labor in Victoria

William Bowe — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:36:01 +0000

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of Victorian state voting intention has Labor blowing out to remarkable leads of 46 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote, and 60-40 on two-party preferred. The Australian reports that “roughly half the poll’s sample of 1142 people was taken before the Black Saturday fires, while the other half was taken during the aftermath of the blazes, when the Premier was regularly in the limelight and is perceived to have performed well”. John Brumby’s approval rating is up seven points to a new high of 52 per cent, while Ted Baillieu’s is down five to 37 per cent. Brumby’s lead as preferred premier is out from 49-27 to 54-22.

Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria

William Bowe — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 14:29:45 +0000

Newspoll’s state polling onslaught today provides a morale-booster for another Labor government, this time Victoria’s, whose two-party lead over the Coalition has shot up to 57-43 from 51-49 two months ago. Labor’s primary vote is up eight points to 45 per cent, the Coalition is down four to 37 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent. Like yesterday’s Queensland poll, this one offers anomalous results on leadership ratings, perhaps indicating that both governments have benefited from the surge in support for Kevin Rudd. Ted Baillieu’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 42 per cent, while his dissatisfaction is down two to 38 per cent. These figures are competitive with John Brumby, who is on 45 per cent (down three) and 42 per cent (steady). However, Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has increased from 45-27 to 49-27.

ACNielsen: 55-45 to Labor in Victoria

William Bowe — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:58:43 +0000

After a patchy run for John Brumby in recent polling, ACNielsen today gives strong reason to think his Victorian government is not headed down the same path as its counterparts in New South Wales. The survey of 1009 voters has Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, and 44 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote. Approval and disapproval ratings are 45 per cent and 36 per cent for Brumby, against 37 per cent and 35 per cent for Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu. Brumby leads 52 per cent to 30 per cent as preferred premier.

Subject for discussion: what are Baillieu’s chances of making it to the next election, due in almost exactly two years? Waiting in the wings is Terry Mulder, Shadow Minister for Public Transport and Roads.

Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

William Bowe — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:19:13 +0000

Victoria has joined the national trend of swings away from Labor state governments, according to the latest bi-monthly poll of state voting intention. Labor is down four points on the primary vote to 37 per cent, and three points on two-party preferred to 51 per cent. The Coalition vote is down one point to 37 per cent (UPDATE: Or so the original report in The Australian would have you believe – it is the Liberals who are on 37 per cent, the Nationals accounting for another 4 per cent), and the Greens are up three to a record high 15 per cent. John Brumby maintains a handy lead over Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu as preferred premier, but it has narrowed slightly from 48-26 to 45-27.

UPDATE: Full results here.