Elsewhere:

• Liberal MP Fran Bailey has announced she will not contest her Victorian federal seat of McEwen at the next election. Bailey retained the seat in 2007 by a court-determined margin of just 27 votes, but the Liberals would have hoped her local popularity in the wake of the February bushfires might help her hold on at the next election. As it stands, the Liberal preselection is unlikely to be keenly sought. Labor’s candidate from 2007, former state upper house MP Rob Mitchell, was said by Rick Wallace of The Australian to maintain “strong local numbers”. However, the Labor national executive’s suspension of the preselection process a fortnight ago has prompted talk its newly acquired powers might be used to install a candidate of its own choice. Rick Wallace subsequently reported that Andrew MacLeod, a “former soldier and UN disaster expert”, had also emerged as a contestant (UPDATE: Greensborough Growler informs me he was also Labor’s candidate in 2001).

• Linda Silmaris of the Daily Telegraph reports senior Labor sources say it is now unlikely Belinda Neal will be forced out of Robertson, an outcome so very recently seen as a foregone conclusion.

• Alex Easton of The Northern Star reports local Nationals are hoping Stuart George, Richmond Valley councillor and son of state Lismore MP Thomas George, will be the party’s candidate for the federal seat of Page. Labor’s Janelle Saffin won the seat in 2007 on the retirement of Nationals incumbent Ian Causley with a margin of 2.4 per cent, picking up a 7.8 per cent swing. The redistribution proposal shaves 0.2 per cent off the Labor margin.

• Robert Ellicott, architect of the Coalition’s constitutional strategy in 1975, has written an article for The Australian in which he muses on the prospect of a Governor-General refusing a Prime Minister’s request for a double dissolution. This has prompted a most informative discussion in comments.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has released approximate figures on the age breakdown of the 1.2 million Australians not on the electoral roll, which progressively falls from 30 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 to 4 per cent of those aged over 65.

• The New South Wales Greens have listed nominees for state upper preselection and the vacancy to be created by Lee Rhiannon’s bid for the Senate. Both incumbents due for re-election, Ian Cohen and Sylvia Hale, are retiring. High-profile Byron Shire mayor Jan Barham is reportedly well-placed for a spot, being an ally of the locally based Cohen.

• The Australian Democrats have lost their last remaining parliamentary member after South Australian upper house MP David Winderlich quit to sit as an independent. The party is now registered only in South Australia and New South Wales.

• Keep following the by-election action on the regularly updated threads for Bradfield, Higgins and Willagee.

• Essential Research has Labor’s lead down from 61-39 to 60-40. Bonus questions on financial stimulus payments and how they will be spent; who will benefit from the national broadband network (everybody, it seems); and some no-brainers on the banks.

• Antony Green offers a thorough overview of results from the Western Australian election courtesy of the WA Parliamentary Library, which has assembled a page compiling all manner of helpful electoral paraphernalia. Antony calculates the two-party result as 51.9-48.1 to the Liberals.

• Ben Raue at the Tally Room has posted the nominees for Greens Senate preselection in New South Wales, where state MP Lee Rhiannon is presumably the front-runner, and Victoria, where previous candidates Richard di Natale and David Risstrom stand out in a crowded field. A productive comments thread ensues.

• Also from Ben Raue, Christian Democratic Party MLC Gordon Moyes says he “may accept an invitation from Family First” after falling out with Fred Nile.

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent’s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.