Other news:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.

• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.

• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.

• Geoff Chambers of The Gold Coast Bulletin reports “senior party figures” have told Julie Bishop to withdraw her apparent endorsement for Minna Knight in tomorrow’s Liberal National Party preselection for McPherson, where Peter Dutton faces the prospect of an embarrassing failure in his bid to seek refuge from endangered Dickson. Bishop has told the paper her reference for Knight was “not intended to be used as preselection material”, but she has nonetheless “stopped short of endorsing Mr Dutton”. The report says Knight and rival candidate Karen Andrews have between them “locked in crucial votes from the Currumbin and Burleigh branches”. In a bid to smooth the path for Dutton, Knight has reportedly been offered a free run in the new neighbouring seat of Wright, while Andrews has been promised a Senate seat.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports last month’s assault charge against the partner of Bass MP Jodie Campbell halted a “gathering momentum” that would have cost her preselection. Campbell reportedly remains “under pressure to lift her performance”. Perhaps more importantly, Denholm reports that “while Ms Campbell is from Labor’s Left faction, many in the Right see Bass as their seat”. The preselection ahead of the last election was initially won by the Right-backed Steve Reissig, although this was achieved because state executive backing for Reissig outweighed support for Campbell in the branches. Reissig later withdrew amid rumours of a smear campaign, and a complicated factional deal helped Campbell win the re-match. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section suggests Kerry Bartlett, who lost Macquarie to Bob Debus at the federal election, has determined to contest preselection for Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains, after failing to re-nominate for Macquarie. Both Debus and his successor in Blue Mountains, Phil Koperberg, are set to retire, with some talk that Koperberg might do so before the election. Labor is said to have two possible candidates in mind for Macquarie: former netballer Liz Ellis and St Vincent DePaul Society chief executive John Falzon, who apparently shares Debus’s and Koperberg’s links with the Socialist Left faction (of which he “used to be” a member). Also said to be interested is Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who was part of the jockeying to succeed Debus ahead of the 2007 election, but is said to lack factional support.

• Further from the above, it is suggested that David Bradbury, who won Lindsay on the third attempt in 2007, is “seeking the numbers to make a move to neighbouring Chifley if government Whip Roger Price decides to retire”. Bradbury is reportedly concerned hostility towards the state government might cost him his seat. He has “even canvassed the idea of a move to Greenway considering it is now a very safe prospect post-redistribution”. Liberal MP Louise Markus is apparently looking good in her bid to move to Macquaire from Greenway, which has a notional Labor margin of 5.6 per cent on the draft redistribution boundaries.

• Late news: Kathleen Maltzahn, whose human rights activism included authorship of a book on the trafficking of women for prostitution in Australia, was announced as Greens candidate for the winnable Victorian state seat of Richmond a month ago. It was also confirmed Adam Bandt, who in 2007 became the party’s first candidate to make the final count at a general federal election, will again run in the federal seat of Melbourne.

• Malcolm Mackerras in Crikey predicts a double dissolution election will be held on August 21, 2010, that presumably being the latest date allowable under the provision which states double dissolutions cannot be held later than six months before the expiry of the House of Representatives (UPDATE: Turns out it’s not the last date – not sure why Mackerras picked this one exactly). He also discusses the method that will be used to decide which of the elected Senators will be “long term”, and which will be chosen to face the people at the next half-Senate election. The Constitution leaves this to the Senate to decide, and it was traditionally done on the basis of the order of election. However, a peculiar result in Tasmania in 1951 meant four out of five Liberal Senators came to be deemed “long term”, which eventually prompted the Hawke government to require that the Electoral Commission calculate a hypothetical half-Senate election result for purposes of directing a “fair” outcome. This however remained non-binding, and at the first and so far only opportunity since (the 1987 double dissolution) the Senate chose not to be bound, instead conducting the division in a manner advantageous to the Australian Democrats. Mackerras notes Labor felt “guilty” about its failure to observe its own reform and promised that in future it would support a Senate resolution to give effect to the half-Senate count before the election took place, which Mackerras expects to be put and carried before his August election.

• Also in Crikey, Andrew Crook offers an overview of the two parties’ preselection processes, dealing in turn with Labor and Liberal (minor parties to follow).

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and Nielsen has Labor’s lead at 58.0-42.0.

• Today’s the big day for the Liberal Party’s preselection in Bradfield. Read and comment all about it at the dedicated post, where you will find a complete and updated form guide to all 17 candidates.

• More by-election action thanks to former WA Premier Alan Carpenter’s retirement announcement, which will shortly produce a vacancy in his safe Labor seat of Willagee. Dedicated post immediately below.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal MP Louise Markus, whose seat of Greenway has been made all but unwinnable by the redistribution, has nominated for preselection in the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, where Labor’s margin has been cut from 7.0 per cent to 0.1 per cent and sitting member Bob Debus is planning to retire. Kerry Bartlett, whom Debus defeated at the 2007 election, has not nominated.

• Imre Salusinszky also reports that an obstacle to Dickson MP Peter Dutton’s transfer to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson has been removed with the announcement by Richard Stuckey, local doctor and husband of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, that he has withdrawn from the preselection race. Presumably still in the field are Karen Andrews, chair of the party’s federal divisional council and an ally of outgoing member Margaret May, and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.

• Jeff Whalley of The Geelong Advertiser reports that the Liberal preselection for the state seat of South Barwon will be a contest between Andrew Katos, who represents Deakin ward on Greater Geelong City Council, and Tony Le Deux, who “has his own catering firm and in the past managed the legendary Melbourne food shop The Essential Ingredient”. Despite earlier reports, former Surf Coast Shire Council councillor Ron Humphrey has emerged as a non-starter. Whalley reports the candidates are respectively backed by factions associated with Stewart McArthur, former federal member for Corangamite, and the seat’s preselected candidate for the next election, Sarah Henderson. The seat is held for Labor by former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield on a margin of 2.3 per cent.

• Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Jeff Kennett has provided former Hawthorn AFL player Stephen Lawrence with a reference in support of his apparent bid for Kennett’s old seat of Burwood, currently held by Labor’s Bob Stensholt on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Also identified as candidates are David Solly, IT manager and one-time Nationals member, and Graham Watt, “owner of a thriving carpet cleaning business”. Landeryou notes that demographics and a large Chinese community are producing a long-term shift to Labor in the seat.

• The Camden Advertiser reports Camden mayor Chris Patterson rejects rumours he will run against federal MP Pat Farmer for Liberal preselection in Macarthur. It is expected that Patterson will run for the state seat of Camden, held by Labor’s Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 3.9 per cent.

• The Australian Women’s Weekly’s Belinda Neal glamour photo shoot hits the news stands Monday.

Elsewhere:

• The Liberal preselection vote in Peter Costello’s seat of Higgins went according to script, with his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer defeating Andrew Abercrombie at the final vote by 222 votes to 112. Reports over the past few days suggest O’Dwyer might be off to Canberra sooner than expected. The Prime Minister appears to be wooing Peter Costello with job offers (executive director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London being the main tip, according to Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald) so as to afflict the Liberals with another troublesome by-election. Costello did not rule out going out early when he made his surprise retirement announcement in June. Glenn Milne reports such a departure might come soon enough for a by-election to be held on the same day as that for Bradfield.

• Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, has won the Liberal preselection to succeed Chris Pearce in the eastern Melbourne seat of Aston. Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Tudge won the final ballot from Neil Angus, having seen off Nick McGowan, Terry Barnes, Deanne Ryall, James Matheson, Sue McMillan, Mike Kapos, Darren Pearce, Ken Aldred and Michael Flynn at earlier counts.

• Julia Irwin has announced she will retire from her safe Labor western Sydney seat of Fowler at the next election, taking the opportunity to launch a spray about the failings of her party’s power structures (her own success in cornering a safe seat for 11 unproductive years being an evident case in point). Irwin believes the Labor margin in the seat has been “built up” by her own personal qualities and hard work, owing little or nothing to its classic low-income, high-immigration Labor profile. Appropriately enough, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports her departure “threatens to create a factional fight” between the Left, which backs Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller, and the Right, which is pushing the unsuccessful 2004 candidate for Greenway, Ed Husic. Laurie Ferguson, left homeless by the redistribution’s abolition of his inner west electorate of Reid, is said to have “little support” from his own Left faction, and “his career is most likely over”.

• Phillip Coorey further reports that factional disputes in Fowler over control of local branches are echoed in the south coast seat of Throsby, whose disappointing member Jennie George is “contemplating whether to run again”.

• Will David Hawker’s departure from Wannon open an entry for the Nationals? The electorate’s history suggests otherwise, but Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports the party is considering running a candidate for the first time since 1984.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a decision by the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections (so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries) is likely to secure the positions of Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra. In further exciting news on the Liberal renewal front, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Alby Schultz and Pat Farmer will again seek preselection in their respective seats of Hume and Macarthur. Farmer launched a spray at his constituents on the night of the 2007 federal election for failing to give him the margin he felt he deserved, and has since moved to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman. Macarthur has been made a notionally marginal Labor seat under the draft redistribution.

• Imre Salusinszky also reports that police sergeant Darren Jameson is favoured to win Liberal preselection in Belinda Neal’s seat of Robertson, notwithstanding that former Liberal member Jim Lloyd is considering a comeback.

• The Liberal National Party’s feeble legal challenge to Queensland Labor’s win in Chatsworth at the March state election died its inevitable death when the Queensland Supreme Court brought down its ruling on Thursday. A smaller than average 14 errors were identified into the count, the effect of which when rectified was to increase Labor’s margin from 74 votes to 85. There were a grand total of two cases of double voting, both involving confused elderly citizens. Antony Green offers some commentary on the judgement, which stands as a heartening confirmation of the integrity of Australia’s electoral processes.

• With New South Wales state Labor member Phil Koperberg indicating he is bitterly disappointed with politics and might not go the distance, Antony Green weighs in with an overview of his electorate of Blue Mountains. It notes that Kerry Bartlett, who lost the corresponding federal seat of Macquarie to Koperberg’s predecessor Bob Debus in 2007, has been mentioned as a potential Liberal candidate.

• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports that Liberal preselection candidates for the Victorian state upper house region of Western Victoria include incumbent David Koch, former police sergeant, anti-corruption campaigner and Wannon aspirant Simon Illingworth, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, Colac businessman Richard Riordan and Daylesford real estate agent Paul Johnson. Another incumbent, John Vogels, is retiring. The coalition agreement gives the Liberals the top two positions on a joint ticket, with the Nationals taking the third.

• Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail reports a private members’ bill sponsored by independent Nicklin MP Peter Wellington to introduce fixed three-year terms has been voted down by both government and opposition. The former wants the matter determined by referendum – Deputy Premier Paul Lucas further says a four-year term would be “more appropriate” as it would “enable necessary planning and implementation time for governments”, which (given the state of play south of the border) makes one doubt the government’s seriousness about seeing reform.

In other news, it’s all happening in Victoria:

• Peter Costello’s surprise announcement that he will not contest the next election has raised the flag on another epic Victorian Liberal preselection stoush in his Melbourne seat of Higgins, which housed successive Liberal prime ministers in Harold Holt and John Gorton. Furthermore, Costello has raised the possibility of an early departure and a by-election, “if it’s in the party’s interest”. Immediately prior to Costello’s announcement, Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam signalled his intention to run if Costello stood aside, after earlier testing the waters in Kooyong (see below). However, Peter van Onselen in The Australian reports that Costello has resolved to oppose Roskam due to equivocal comments he made to David Penberthy of The Punch about Costello’s future value in politics. Van Onselen further reports widespread displeasure at this and other remarks seen to be in breach of Liberal rules that preselection aspirations are not to be discussed with the media. Costello reportedly wishes for the seat to go to a former staffer, Kelly O’Dwyer. It had earlier been reported that O’Dwyer might depose incumbent Ted Baillieu loyalist Andrew McIntosh in the state seat of Kew. The other big name in the Higgins mix is Mal Brough, who has moved to Melbourne and is said to be hopeful of a return to politics that doesn’t involve further dirtying his hands in the morass of the Queensland Liberal National Party. However, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports party sources say he has “no chance”. Also mentioned are former state party director Julian Sheezel, who was said to be backed by Costello but opposed by Michael Kroger when talk of Costello’s departure was in the air after the election, Jason Aldworth, a former banking colleague of Michael Kroger and more recently a consultant for Crosby Textor; and, intriguingly, Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John, who memorably sought to depose Roger Shipton as member for this very seat in pursuit of his prime ministerial ambitions.

• Merchant banker Josh Frydenberg has won the hotly contested preselection to succeed Petro Georgiou as the Liberal candidate for Kooyong. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Frydenberg won the second round ballot over industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto by 283 votes to 239 after all other contenders were excluded in the first round. The result is a defeat for Ted Baillieu, whose power base had pursued various stratagems designed to thwart Frydenberg, the preferred candidate of the rival Kroger faction.

• The ALP national executive’s role in Victorian state preselections has been further expanded following John Brumby’s decision to refer to the body all state upper house preselections for next year’s election. Labor insiders quoted by David Rood of The Age relate that the decision will “all but end” the career of Theo Theophanous, who faces a vigorously contested rape charge and was recently among those named adversely in the state Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. This week the national executive acted as expected in relation to a number of lower house preselections referred to it in the wake of the latter imbroglio, selecting former Trades Hall Council deputy secretary (and wife of New South Wales Senator Steve Hutchins) Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace George Seitz in Keilor and confirming incumbents Telmo Languiller, Rob Hulls, Marsha Thomson and Marlene Kairouz in Derrimut, Niddrie, Footscray and Kororoit. It has also been confirmed that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will seek to move to the lower house by nominating for preselection in Essendon, to be vacated by the retiring Judy Maddigan. In his absence, the national executive has chosen incumbents Martin Pakula, Khalil Eideh and Bob Smith to head the ticket in Western Metropolitan (Smith currently represents South-Eastern Metropolitan).

• Helen Shardey, Victorian Shadow Health Minister and member for Caulfield, has indicated she will stand down at the next election. It had been reported she faced a preselection challenge from David Southwick, previously unsuccessful in the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and for the state upper house Southern Metropolitan in 2006.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that former Liberal MP Phil Barresi, whom he describes as a “factionally unenthusiastic Krogerite”, has been given the green light to attempt to recover the seat of Deakin which he held from 1996 until his defeat in 2007. Barresi reportedly won on the first round over eccentric perennial Ken Aldred, who was dumped in favour of Barresi in 1996 after peddling weird conspiracy theories, and one Deanne Rhyll. Perhaps Barresi is encouraged by the precedent of 1984, when the Liberals unexpectedly recovered the seat (with some help from a redistribution) after losing it when the Hawke government was elected in 1983.

Elsewhere:

• Glenn Milne in The Australian reports on the Labor succession in the federal seat of Macquarie, which will be vacated at the next election by Bob Debus. As Milne tells it, Debus or his supporters put it about that his recent decision to withdraw from the ministry and bow out at the next election, which helped the Prime Minister no end as he sought to construct a new cabinet in the wake of Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation, was conditional upon Debus being given the right to anoint his own successor. This was hotly disputed by Right powerbrokers who are bitterly opposed to Debus’s objective of freezing out industrial barrister Adam Searle, a Left faction colleague but personal rival.

• Two new goodies from Antony Green. An extensive paper for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library provides all manner of detail on the state’s Legislative Council election in 2007, while an accompanying blog post scrutinises the performance of the optional preferential above-the-line voting system introduced after the 1999 election produced a tablecloth-sized ballot paper and elected candidates from groupings that would be flattered by the “micro-party” designation. He further discusses the potential for such a system to resolve the issues which saw Steve Fielding elected to the Senate in 2004. For the more casual election enthusiast, a new 2010federal election calculator allows you set the two-party result to taste to find out the seat outcome in the event of a uniform swing. It turns out a 50-50 result would give the Coalition exactly half the seats and presumably allow it to govern with support of the three independents. Labor loses its majority at 50.8 per cent.

• Queensland independent MP Peter Wellington has introduced a private member’s bill providing for fixed three-year terms, with an escape clause if a new government cannot be formed in the wake of no-confidence motion and a provision allowing for a five-week postponement if there is a clash with a federal election or a “widespread natural disaster”. The major parties both support fixed four-year terms, which unlike Wellington’s proposal would require a referendum. Negotiations for such a referendum broke down last year when then Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg insisted on further unrelated reforms, but his successor John-Paul Langbroek has foreshadowed a more “flexible” approach in future discussions with the government.

• Christian Kerr of The Australian evaluates the Australian political blogosphere.

UPDATE: Thanks to Rebecca in comments for bringing my attention to the fact that Allison Ritchie, Labor member for the Tasmanian Legislative Council district of Pembroke, yesterday announced she would quit parliament after enduring a storm of controversy over her appointment of family members on her staff. This will presumably result in a by-election shortly in Pembroke, where Ritchie defeated an independent incumbent in 2001 and won re-election in 2007. The Electoral Act allows the government enormous latitude on the timing of such a by-election, so I’ll hold off on giving it its own post until its intentions become clearer. Ritchie claims to have been the victim of a plot from within her own party, which presumably explains why she has decided to go now rather than wait for the more convenient juncture of early next year, when a by-election could be held with the state election in March or the annual periodical upper house elections in May.