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	<title>The Poll Bludger &#187; Martin Hamilton-Smith</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>Morgan: 58-42</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/07/10/morgan-58-42-4/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/07/10/morgan-58-42-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:29:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SA politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Essential Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Isobel Redmond]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hamilton-Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mitch Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morgan poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Griffiths]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vickie Chapman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3765</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor&#8217;s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4399/">Roy Morgan face-to-face poll</a> to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor&#8217;s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s an incomplete sampling of the past week&#8217;s action. This site&#8217;s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.</p>
<p>&#8226; Monday&#8217;s weekly <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2009/07/essential-report_060709.pdf">Essential Research</a> survey had Labor&#8217;s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.</p>
<p>&#8226; The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/sa2006/heysen.htm">Heysen</a> MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/sa2006/waite.htm">Waite</a> MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/sa2006/mackillop.htm">Mackillop</a> MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/sa2006/bragg.htm">Bragg</a> MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/sa2006/goyder.htm">Goyder</a> MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/07/double-dissolution-versus-halfsenate-election-which-would-be-better-for-labor-in-the-senate.html">Antony Green</a> crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor&#8217;s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.</p>
<p>&#8226; Against his better judgement, <a href="http://mumble.com.au/">Peter Brent at Mumble</a> enters the world of blogdom. He&#8217;s also written a piece on <a href="http://inside.org.au/sprucing-up-the-horse-and-buggy/">Inside Story</a> which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.</p>
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		<title>Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor in South Australia</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/21/newspoll-56-44-to-labor-in-south-australia/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/21/newspoll-56-44-to-labor-in-south-australia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 04:46:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SA politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hamilton-Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Rann]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been umm-ing and ah-ing over whether to give this its own thread, as Newspoll have for some reason been sitting on it for the better part of two months. It first appeared in Newspoll&#8217;s results archive the other day, has only now been the subject of a normal Newspoll release, and I gather it&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been umm-ing and ah-ing over whether to give this its own thread, as Newspoll have for some reason been sitting on it for the better part of two months. It first appeared in Newspoll&#8217;s results archive the other day, has only now been the subject of a <a href="http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0308%20SA.pdf">normal Newspoll release</a>, and I gather it&#8217;s only been reported in the local edition of The Australian. The survey period was January to March, so it does not cover the aftermath of Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith&#8217;s claims of secret donations to Labor from the Church of Scientology using what proved to be forged evidence. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out when we do get an up-to-date poll, because Mike Rann&#8217;s pursuit of defamation action against Hamilton-Smith after multiple grovelling apologies had me thinking he was over-playing his hand.</p>
<p>Anyway, what we have is Labor&#8217;s lead on 56-44, up from 54-46 in the previous quarter. Labor&#8217;s primary vote is up three points to 42 per cent while the Liberals are down one to 34 per cent. The Greens are down three to 10 per cent. Mike Rann&#8217;s approval rating is up a healthy seven points to 51 per cent, and his disapproval is down two to 37 per cent. Martin Hamilton Smith was evidently in trouble even before the Scientology allegations, his approval down four to 43 per cent and his disapproval up eight to 34 per cent. Rann&#8217;s lead as preferred premier is up from 50-26 to 53-24.</p>
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		<slash:comments>40</slash:comments>
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		<title>Advertiser: 56-44 to Labor in SA</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/03/21/advertiser-56-44-to-labor-in-sa/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/03/21/advertiser-56-44-to-labor-in-sa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 16:44:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SA politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Advertiser poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hamilton-Smith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=2973</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Adelaide Advertiser has published a poll on South Australian state voting intention from a sample of 522, showing Labor leading the Liberals 56-44 on two-party preferred. After distribution of the 12 per cent undecided, Labor leads 43 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote. Breakdowns between city and country show Labor [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/pdfs/statepolitics18mar2009.pdf">Adelaide Advertiser</a> has published a poll on South Australian state voting intention from a sample of 522, showing Labor leading the Liberals 56-44 on two-party preferred. After distribution of the 12 per cent undecided, Labor leads 43 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote. Breakdowns between city and country show Labor leading 57-43 outside Adelaide. However, the previous Advertiser poll published last September had the Liberals leading in the country 58-42, pointing to a scarcely credible 15 point turn-around &#8211; although the earlier poll had a total sample of just 365. Martin Hamilton-Smith is far ahead of his party rivals as preferred Liberal leader.</p>
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		<slash:comments>127</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in SA</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/12/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-sa-2/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/12/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-sa-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2008 14:04:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[SA politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hamilton-Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Rann]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=2412</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mike Rann&#8217;s South Australian government has joined in on the end-of-year Newspoll fun, bouncing back in the latest quarterly survey to the 54-46 lead it enjoyed in April-June before slumping to 50-50 in July-September. However, it owes the recovery to preferences from the Greens, who have soared five points to 13 per cent directly at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mike Rann&#8217;s South Australian government has joined in on the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24825970-5006787,00.html">end-of-year Newspoll fun</a>, bouncing back in the latest quarterly survey to the 54-46 lead it enjoyed in April-June before slumping to 50-50 in July-September. However, it owes the recovery to preferences from the Greens, who have soared five points to 13 per cent directly at the expense of the Liberals, who have slumped to 35 per cent <i>(UPDATE: Hair-splitters in comments resent the implication that Liberal votes have gone to the Greens. This is obviously not so)</i>. Labor&#8217;s primary vote is up one to 39 per cent. Rann&#8217;s approval rating is up three points to 44 per cent, while his disapproval is down six to 39 per cent. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith&#8217;s ratings are 43 per cent (steady) and 26 per cent (down five), but he is down four points as preferred premier to 26 per cent, with Rann up two to 50 per cent.</p>
<p>UPDATE: The following charts track Labor&#8217;s two-party vote and the various leaders&#8217; approval ratings since the federal election. Western Australia has been excluded partly due to incomplete data, but mostly because of the complication of the change of government.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081220alp2pp1.gif"><img src="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081220alp2pp1.gif" alt="" title="081220alp2pp1" width="483" height="291" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2424" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081220approval1.gif"><img src="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081220approval1.gif" alt="" title="081220approval1" width="483" height="291" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2425" /></a></p>
<p>As I&#8217;ve noted previously, federal Labor&#8217;s vote has very closely tracked Kevin Rudd&#8217;s approval rating except since Malcolm Turnbull became Liberal leader, since which time it has increased less sharply (the most recent poll notwithstanding). This can be chalked up as a win of sorts for Turnbull. The other thing the data strongly suggests is that the end-of-year boom in the federal government&#8217;s popularity has pulled up the various state governments, whose improved performances bear no relation to their leaders&#8217; approval ratings. I would infer from this that the governments in question shouldn&#8217;t get too comfortable.</p>
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		<slash:comments>53</slash:comments>
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		<title>Newspoll: 50-50 in South Australia</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/24/newspoll-50-50-in-south-australia/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/24/newspoll-50-50-in-south-australia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:09:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[South Australian Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hamilton-Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Rann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SA politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=1252</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Newspoll today brings more evidence that Labor&#8217;s moment in the sun at state level is passing, with Labor and Liberal in a two-party preferred dead heat in South Australia. The Liberals are in the lead on the primary vote for the first time since the election of the Rann government in February 2002, with 40 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Newspoll today brings more evidence that Labor&#8217;s moment in the sun at state level is passing, with Labor and Liberal in a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24393840-5013871,00.html">two-party preferred dead heat</a> in South Australia. The Liberals are in the lead on the primary vote for the first time since the election of the Rann government in February 2002, with 40 per cent to Labor&#8217;s 38 per cent. The previous quarterly Newspoll survey from April to June had Labor leading 41 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred. Mike Rann&#8217;s approval rating has plunged 10 points to 41 per cent while his disapproval is up nine points to 45 per cent, on both counts his worst results as Premier. However, Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith&#8217;s approval rating is also down four points to 43 per cent, while Rann maintains a 48 per cent (down six points) to 30 per cent (up three points) lead as preferred premier </p>
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		<slash:comments>13</slash:comments>
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		<title>Advertiser poll: 51-49 to Labor in SA</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/20/advertiser-poll-51-49-to-labor-in-sa/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/20/advertiser-poll-51-49-to-labor-in-sa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:35:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[South Australian Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Advertiser poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Hamilton-Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Rann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SA politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=1196</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Adelaide Advertiser has published a small-sample (365) poll of state voting intention which gives Labor a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for Liberal after distribution of informal and undecided. The paper&#8217;s previous state poll in February had 476 respondents, and showed Labor [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Adelaide Advertiser has published a small-sample (365) poll of <a href="http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24373976-5006301,00.html">state voting intention</a> which gives Labor a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for Liberal after distribution of informal and undecided. The paper&#8217;s previous state poll in February had 476 respondents, and showed Labor leading 57-43. Respondents were also asked how the current leaders compare with Alexander Downer, which takes the idea of his entry into state politics a little more seriously than I would have. The Advertiser blotted its polling copybook with this <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/08/advertiser-poll-maywald-on-11-per-cent-in-chaffey/">dubious effort</a> in early August, but its long-term record isn&#8217;t so bad (although it usually uses larger samples). The polling is conducted in-house, I believe by its classified advertising staff.</p>
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		<slash:comments>51</slash:comments>
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