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	<title>The Poll Bludger &#187; Reuters Poll Trend</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>Essential Research: 60-40</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/08/31/essential-research-60-40-2/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/08/31/essential-research-60-40-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 08:09:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NSW Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Victorian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Camden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Patterson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Essential Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jai Rowell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macarthur]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Margaret Fitzherbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Murray Thompson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Farmer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[primaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters Poll Trend]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandringham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wollondilly]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=4024</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor&#8217;s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn&#8217;t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The latest weekly <a href="http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/Media/Essential_Report_310809.pdf">Essential Research survey</a> has Labor&#8217;s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn&#8217;t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job security continue to steadily improve; and that 59 per cent believe Ricky Ponting should stay on as captain. Also included are some slightly obscure questions on the recent LNG deal with China.</p>
<p>Couple of other things:</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/sandringham.htm">Sandringham</a> MP Murray Thompson has easily seen off the only preselection challenge against a Victorian state Liberal MP. According to <a href="http://www.vexnews.com/news/5738/theana-triumph-victorian-liberal-mp-comfortably-defeats-preselection-challenge/">Andrew Landeryou at VexNews</a>, Thompson defeated &#8220;Baillieu faction hopeful&#8221; Margaret Fitzherbert by forty-five votes to seven.</p>
<p>&#8226; The <a href="http://www.camdenadvertiser.com.au/news/local/news/general/farmer-lacks-the-numbers/1605582.aspx">Camden Advertiser</a> reports that the seat-warming federal Liberal member for <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/macarthur.htm">Macarthur</a>, Pat Farmer, has his eyes on Labor-held state seats of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/nsw2007/camden.htm">Camden</a> (held by Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 4.0 per cent) and <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/nsw2007/wollondilly.htm">Wollondilly</a> (Phil Costa, 3.1 per cent). Locally powerful state Liberal MLC Charlie Lynn seems amused by this, suggesting Camden mayor Chris Patterson and Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell have the respected nominations all but wrapped up, although the former says he is not sure he will run.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/primaries-to-fight-branch-stacks-brumby-20090827-f0m0.html">The Age</a> reports that John Brumby says US-style primaries would &#8220;enliven the democratic process&#8221;, and are &#8221;something the party should look at&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8226; The latest <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2009/08/reuters-poll-trend-aug09_word.doc">Reuters Poll Trend</a> aggregate has Labor&#8217;s lead at 57.2-42.8.</p>
<p>&#8226; Follow the Bradfield by-election action and contribute your thoughts at the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/08/25/bradfield-by-election/">progressively updated dedicated post</a>.</p>
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		<slash:comments>1807</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Reuters Poll Trend: 55.8-44.2</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/07/03/reuters-poll-trend-558-442/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/07/03/reuters-poll-trend-558-442/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tasmanian Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Victorian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brant Webb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Wightman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cowan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Seitz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hasluck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karen Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kathryn Hay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keilor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Andrews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Menzies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michelle O'Byrne]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Dean]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Tinley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters Poll Trend]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott McLean]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stirling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Hammond]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The latest <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2009/07/reuters-poll-trend-july09.pdf">Reuters Poll Trend</a> weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.</p>
<p><b>UPDATE:</b> <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4397/">Roy Morgan</a> has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn&#8217;t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull&#8217;s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd&#8217;s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly <a href="http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0607%20State%20&#038;%20Dem.pdf">geographic and demographic</a> breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.</p>
<p>Apart from that:</p>
<p>&#8226; Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be &#8221;stitched up&#8221;. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/cowan.htm">Cowan</a> and <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/swan.htm">Swan</a>, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater &#038; Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/wa2005.htm#girrawheen">Girrawheen</a> at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/stirling.htm">Stirling</a>, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/wa2008/mountlawley.htm">Mount Lawley</a> at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter&#8217;s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/hasluck.htm">Hasluck</a>, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be &#8220;working behind the scenes&#8221; to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.</p>
<p>&#8226; The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/01/2613433.htm">ABC</a> reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/tas2006.htm#bass">Bass</a> at next year&#8217;s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania&#8217;s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O&#8217;Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25709054-5006785,00.html">Rick Wallace of The Australian</a> reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006.htm">Keilor</a> MP, proposes to publish a &#8220;warts and all&#8221; account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman&#8217;s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode&#8217;s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.vexnews.com/news/5163/no-challenge-victorian-federal-liberal-preselections-see-all-incumbents-returned-unopposed/">Andrew Landeryou at VexNews</a> reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria &#8211; including Kevin Andrews in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/menzies.htm">Menzies</a>, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke. </p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/29/newspoll-56-44-acnielsen-58-42-galaxy-56-44/all-comments/#comment-300547">Nick in comments</a> informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.</p>
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		<slash:comments>2238</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/21/reuters-poll-trend-566-434/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/21/reuters-poll-trend-566-434/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 06:18:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Queensland Election 2009]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Queensland Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chatsworth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Clark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters Poll Trend]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3614</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Reuters Poll Trend is back in business, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn&#8217;t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reuters Poll Trend is <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2009/05/reuters-poll-trend-may09_final.doc">back in business</a>, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn&#8217;t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor&#8217;s two-party lead at 56.6-43.4, down from 57.3-42.7 previously.</p>
<p>Couple of legal matters to attend to:</p>
<p>&#8226; A <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/19/2575351.htm">legal challenge</a> is proceeding against Labor&#8217;s 74-vote win in the seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/qld2009/chatsworth.htm">Chatsworth</a> at the March 21 Queensland election. The LNP cites incidents of double voting and a strong overall result for Labor on absent votes as evidence of fraud. I&#8217;ve got a hat waiting to be eaten if the challenge is upheld.</p>
<p>&#8226; Gary Clark, husband of the former <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/lindsay.htm">Lindsay</a> MP Jackie Kelly, has been given the maximum fine of $1100 and ordered to pay more than $2000 in costs for his role in the distribution of fake pamphlets purporting to be from the &#8220;Islamic Australia Federation&#8221; in the week before the federal election. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/19/2574605.htm">ABC</a> reports Magistrate Geoff Bradd aptly observing it was &#8220;difficult to think of a worst case of breaching the electoral act&#8221;, for which the penalties would seem to need strengthening.</p>
<p>&#8226; Note posts below on the latest state Newspoll results for Western Australia and South Australia.</p>
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		<slash:comments>423</slash:comments>
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