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	<title>The Poll Bludger &#187; Sarah Henderson</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>Morgan: 57.5-42.5</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/14/morgan-575-425-6/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/14/morgan-575-425-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2009 23:08:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NSW Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Victorian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McIntosh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Belinda Neal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brighton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caulfield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corangamite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Essendon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Seitz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Helen Shardey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Madden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keilor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kew]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kim Wells]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louise Asher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marie Ficarra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Towke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morgan poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rod Nockles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarah Henderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scoresby]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Morrison]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3681</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night&#8217;s Newspoll. Other [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/892/">Roy Morgan</a> attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night&#8217;s Newspoll. Other news:</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/threat-from-right-cited-in-liberal-branch-stacking-20090612-c68e.html">Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald</a> reports that &#8220;branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/cook.htm">Cook</a> are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison&#8221;. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates&#8217; own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party&#8217;s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke &#8211; although this was &#8220;laughed off&#8221; by a &#8220;senior Right source&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/rudds-men-seize-control-of-preselections-20090611-c4zu.html">Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald</a> reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members &#8211; significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/robertson.htm">Robertson</a>.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.vexnews.com/news/4748/ambush-try-on-testy-ted-tries-to-trump-thrusting-krogerites/">Andrew Landeryou at VexNews</a> reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party&#8217;s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year&#8217;s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (<a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/kew.htm">Kew</a>), Helen Shardey (<a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/caulfield.htm">Caulfield</a>) and Kim Wells (<a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/scoresby.htm">Scoresby</a>). Landeryou also relates rumours about the <a href="http://www.vexnews.com/news/4744/tears-of-frustration-has-louise-asher-had-enough/">possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher</a>, the member for <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/brighton.htm">Brighton</a>.</p>
<p>&#8226; Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/corangamite.htm">Corangamite</a>, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/geelong.htm">Geelong</a> state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/wannon.htm">Wannon</a>; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. <i>(UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See <a href="http://www.vexnews.com/news/4829/corangamite-sara-henderson-will-be-liberal-candidate-after-gruelling-7-hour-preselection-process/" rel="nofollow">Andrew Landeryou</a> and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)</i></p>
<p>&#8226; There was <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-deal-could-find-madden-moving-house-20090609-c290.html">renewed talk</a> this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/keilor.htm">Keilor</a>, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz&#8217;s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan&#8217;s seat of <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/essendon.htm">Essendon</a>. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/bundoora.htm">Bundoora</a> due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty&#8217;s departure from <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/vic2006/northcote.htm">Northcote</a> saw him stay put.</p>
<p>&#8226; The New South Wales Nationals&#8217; annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an <a href="http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25626539-29277,00.html">exciting plan</a> in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Morgan: 59-41</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/02/morgan-59-41-6/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/02/morgan-59-41-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 14:33:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corangamite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[enrolment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Clark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Chijoff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guy Barnett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Egan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Frydenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kooyong]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lindsay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Ronaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morgan poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pamphlet scandal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarah Henderson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=3236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor&#8217;s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor&#8217;s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition&#8217;s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan&#8217;s sample sizes and Coalition primary [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4374/">Roy Morgan face-to-face poll</a> in a fortnight shows Labor&#8217;s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor&#8217;s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition&#8217;s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/01/a-funny-thing-with-morgan-face-to-face-polls/#comments">Possum</a> detects a negative correlation between Morgan&#8217;s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).</p>
<p>Elsewhere:</p>
<p>&#8226; Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania&#8217;s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/bass.htm">Bass</a> at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson&#8217;s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/04/21/tasmanian-upper-house-elections-may-10/">dedicated thread</a>. Further reading from <a href="http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2009/04/legislative-council-election-preview.html">Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics</a>. Further coverage tomorrow from <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/05/tasmanian-legis.html">Antony Green</a>.</p>
<p>&#8226; Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25406750-5013871,00.html">found guilty</a> for his role in the <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/lindsay.htm">Lindsay</a> pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of &#8220;distributing unauthorised electoral material&#8221;, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor &#8220;poss&eacute;&#8221; who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.</p>
<p>&#8226; <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/powerful-kooyong-allies-20090421-ae3g.html">Michelle Grattan of The Age</a> reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals&#8217; <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/kooyong.htm">Kooyong</a> preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).</p>
<p>&#8226; The <a href="http://www.standard.net.au/news/local/news/general/libs-put-up-their-hands-for-shot-at-corangamite-seat/1493921.aspx">Warrnambool Standard</a> reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/corangamite.htm">Corangamite</a>. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals&#8217; Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; &#8220;Internet expert and former Howard government adviser&#8221; Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, &#8220;Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8226; Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an <a href="http://inside.org.au/senator-ronaldsons-own-goal/">excellent piece for Inside Story</a>.</p>
<p>&#8226; After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/27/2553157.htm">reportedly has his eyes</a> on <a href="http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/bass.htm">Bass</a>, which Labor&#8217;s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.</p>
<p>&#8226; If you thought Possum&#8217;s booth maps was dope, wait till you see <a href="http://www.subrepublic.com/boothmaps/index.html">Nathan Lambert&#8217;s Google Earth files</a>.</p>
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