Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Tag Archives: Tasmanian Politics

EMRS: 41-35 to Liberal in Tasmania

Hot on the heels of their Pembroke by-election win, the latest EMRS poll provides a further shot in the arm for the Tasmanian Liberals. The survey of 864 voters finds them ahead of Labor for the first time since David Bartlett replaced Paul Lennon as Premier in May 2008. The Liberals are up five points [...]

Houses in disorder

No Morgan poll this week, but the past week’s tide of political shenanigans and skulduggery can be held back no longer:
• The by-election for the Tasmanian upper house district for Pembroke will
be held tomorrow, which in partisan terms is the most interesting such contest for many a long year. Labor will not attempt to retain [...]

Newspoll: 57-43

From Peter Brent at Mumble comes news that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43 – up from 55-45 last time – with Labor’s primary vote on 46 per cent (up three), the Coalition on 38 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down two). More to follow. [...]

Pembroke by-election: August 1

Friday, July 31
Tune in tomorrow for the usual live coverage of the count. Michael Stedman of The Mercury has a thorough round-up of the campaign and candidates; Kevin Bonham and Peter Tucker have added a sequel to their earlier overview; and Tucker offers a few more cents’ worth at his own Tasmanian Politics site. [...]

Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 62-38 to 59-41. There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite, while class reaction to [...]

Morgan: 58-42/54.5-45.5

Unpredictable Roy Morgan has unloaded two very different sets of poll results: one using its usual face-to-face methodology, but based on one week’s sample rather than the recently more usual two, and the other a phone poll in which respondents were also asked about leadership preference, contrary to normal Morgan practice. The face-to-face poll is [...]

EMRS: 43-36 to Labor in Tasmania

The latest quarterly EMRS survey of 1000 Tasmanian voters shows no radical change in state voting intention since February, with Labor’s lead after distribution of the undecided up a point to 43 per cent, the Liberals steady on 36 per cent and the Greens down two to 17 per cent. There are also breakdowns by [...]

Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread

So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:
• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in [...]

Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 61-39. As promised, there is also voluminous material on attitudes to the economy and stimulus package:
• 62 per cent are “concerned” about job security over the coming year, although 60 per cent are “confident” Australia can withstand the crisis.
• The opposition’s approve-disapprove split [...]

EMRS: 42-36 to Labor in Tasmania

The latest Tasmanian state poll from EMRS has Labor at 42 per cent (up two from November), the Liberals at 36 per cent (up one) and the Greens at 19 per cent (down four). David Bartlett’s preferred premier rating is up four to 41 per cent, while Will Hodgman is steady on 29 [...]