A day after state Labor MP Alannah MacTiernan at last confirmed she would take on Liberal member Don Randall in the federal seat of Canning, The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents showing MacTiernan favoured by 41 per cent as state Labor leader, compared with 15 per cent for Mindarie MP John Quigley, 12 per cent for incumbent Eric Ripper and 3 per cent each for Victoria Park MP Ben Wyatt and Kwinana MP Roger Cook. Premier Colin Barnett remains preferred by 55 per cent (steady) against 16 per cent (up three) for Ripper. No figures on voting intention are provided. MacTiernan says she will remain in her seat of Armadale and on the front bench until preselection is resolved.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 60-40.

On Saturday, The West reported that this same survey showed 51 per cent planning to vote against daylight saving at the May 16 referendum against 47 per cent in favour. Yesterday it was reported that 60 per cent were in favour of allowing shops to open until 9pm on weeknights and all day on Sundays, which got the thumbs down at a referendum held in conjunction with the 2005 state election.

UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.

• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green’s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.

• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.

• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.

The problem Eric Ripper and Alannah MacTiernan have within Labor is that they both come from a Centre faction that no longer exists. Without factional backers, the more likely long-term scenario is that the next Labor premier will either be the Left’s Roger Cook or the Right’s Ben Wyatt. The problem Labor has is that neither of the two is ready to assume the leadership, and it must find someone capable of leading the party into an election, be it a by-election or general contest, at a moment’s notice, such is the knife-edge situation in the State Parliament …

After the election loss, (Ripper) was seen as more acceptable to the two factions, who were not impressed with Ms MacTiernan’s efforts to reform the factional system. But with the Ray report into the party’s election failings criticising its factional warfare, Ms MacTiernan’s reformist zeal might win her some favour at the national level. Few political observers believe Mr Ripper will lead Labor to the next election if the Barnett Government goes its full four-year term. It therefore comes down to a matter of when Mr Ripper will step down or be pushed aside in favour of the next leader, and whether that leader will be Ms MacTiernan or one of the new generation.