Pollytics

Politics, elections and piffle plinking

07 Election Redux – The Kelly Gang

November 22, 2009 – 9:19 am, by Possum Comitatus

The big story on this day two years ago – the final Thursday of the 2007 election campaign – was the Lindsay leaflet scandal, which made an interesting fit with the rumors of the previous afternoon flying around about Joe Hockey being in deep trouble in North Sydney. Today’s Election Redux takes in the two events. It’s also worth listening to the Jackie Kelly interview on ABC radio’s AM program of that morning – the transcript is here, with the audio available at the top of that page.

Poor Old Shrek

As if being the poor goose that has to defend Workchoices isn’t enough of a burden, now Joe Hockey has to try and put out the fires of those political pyromaniacs of the Kelly Gang in his own seat – in 48 hours.

Shrek’s electorate of North Sydney is filled to the brim with people of a certain moral persuasion on social issues, their delicate Naw Shaw sensibilities being almost legendary…. Dahrling.

But out in the Bogansville of Lindsay, uber-Bogan Jackie Kelly and her bourbon swilling coterie of mental midgets thought it would be a really shit hot idea to start handing out fake ALP pamphlets depicting Labor being under the thumb of mufti-madness.

Honest to god – these guys must have the IQ of an ugg-boot.

With seats like Kooyong, Goldstein, Wentworth, Higgins, Ryan, Bennelong and North Sydney all having decent swings to the ALP in them, the last thing the Coalition wants the small L liberals in these places to hear is yet another reason for them to change their vote to that nice harmless man Kevin Rudd.

It’ll only take a few more votes for those seats that aren’t already changing to fall. Having blockheads from the dregs of the NSW Liberal Party pulling race stunts with 48 hours to go, must be making the members of those leafy seats looking for the nearest tree to string up these fools.

Earlier in the week we were talking about Read More »

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07 Election Redux: Andrew Robb the Google Assassin

November 21, 2009 – 9:57 am, by Possum Comitatus

The Wednesday before the Saturday election of 2007 was filled with Andrew Robb suggesting that 13 Labor candidates were  fulfilling an office of profit under the crown, effectively being employed by the government is some capacity, something that would disqualify them from being able to become elected to Parliament. It all looked wreaked of desperation – of the 13 candidates mentioned by Robb, all but George Newhouse in Wentworth had airtight cases for being able to become elected; something that became apparent very quickly. The Newhouse issue never had to be tested as Turnbull retained the seat.

Bringing us to this day’s article in 2007:

Andrew Robb the Google Assassin

You can almost picture it; it’s late evening in the Coalition bunker, the details of the latest Oztrack had been delivered a few hours earlier and a melancholy haze has since settled over the leadership team. The results are grim, the outlook disastrous.

Win expectations have completely dissolved, the economy has disappeared as a high confidence Coalition issue and all of the major policy areas that are influencing voting intention have continued to move to the ALP side of the positioning chart.

The focus groups are showing that while Rudd is popular and seen as trustworthy and capable, the only chink in his armour is the uncertainty involved about the capability of the party he leads.

Andrew Robb through steely eyes and gritted teeth devises a plan. Not much of a plan mind you, a bit of a high risk plan as it turns out – but in these dying days of political empire, any plan that doesn’t involve Barnaby Joyce will do. Read More »

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ANU Poll – Public Perceptions of Rural Issues

November 20, 2009 – 10:52 am, by Possum Comitatus

The Australian National University has released their latest ANU Poll, this quarter giving it a rural flavour by focusing questions on issues related to rural and regional Australia. It’s a phone poll of 1200, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.8% mark. You can read the full results in either a report format or the raw polling results.

There’s quite a diversity of questions – from public perceptions of animal welfare when purchasing meat products, through to perceptions of the most important issues faced by rural Australia, through to social and familial connections of all Australians to rural Australia. It’s worth a squiz – some of the questions and responses are actually a bit of a giggle.

There were two questions though that stood out. The first asked:

Thinking of (most important problem facing rural Australia), who do you think is most responsible for providing solutions?

The responses are quite astonishing – here I converted the response frequencies to the same format that we’re used to seeing with polls, where refused/not completed are are removed from the pool.

govsolutions

80% of the public think government is responsible for solving whatever they believe is the most important problem for rural and regional Australia! Just what those problems are can be found in the survey itself – it’s quite a broad list.

The other question worth having a look at, Read More »

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This day in 2007

November 20, 2009 – 7:56 am, by Possum Comitatus

Two years ago today it was the Tuesday before the Saturday election that saw the Howard government swept from office. Everyday until the 24th, I’ll repost an article from this day in 2007 – reliving the last rather hectic/tragic/comedic days of that historic election campaign. A trip down memory lane if you will.

It’s also really worth reading the comments sections of the original articles to not only get a feel for the vibe of the day, but also to laugh at the nervous ALP supporters! :-D

I’ll drop a link in to the original comments section at the bottom of each of these posts.

Today’s article is:

It’s true – they’ve gone mad and eaten Mark Textor.

OK, let’s try to follow the logic.

We have the Coalition that is well behind in the polls and where one of the primary reasons, if not the primary reason for the thumping the electorate is giving them is the impact (real and imaginary) of Workchoices on peoples lives.

It’s electoral poison. The policy that dares not speak its name is not spoken of for a reason – very bad things happen to the Coalition vote when it starts getting mentioned.

So Howard, in his current state of madness, thinks it’s a really spiffy idea to come out and not only throw the focus back onto Workchoices, but say:

“If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government…. They will become part of the furniture. They will become so embedded in our business and workplace culture that no future Labor government would be able to reverse them.”

WTF?

Vote for us and the policy that you hate the most will be guaranteed to exist forever?

What sort of madness is that?

It makes Howard look like he’s not only arrogant, but that he hates the part of the electorate that changed votes because of Workchoices, and is hell bent on punishing them for it.

I don’t know what drug induced focus groups that intellectual gem came out of, but I’d be asking for my money back. Even if the Coalition is cutting its losses over the Workchoices vote in the east and is just trying to shore up support in WA where they think Workchoices plays better (as well as with the nonsense conviction vote spiel) – they’re still risking a further swing away from them in their soft vote in the East. Especially from those people that don’t like Workchoices but aren’t yet convinced to vote Labor. Looking arrogant, out of touch and having the whiff of retribution about you is simply not a good look.

When we take into account the fact that the Coalition knew that their Workchoices Mk II documents were going to be Read More »

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Peak Wingnut

November 18, 2009 – 2:04 pm, by Possum Comitatus

In his continuing quest for relevance, Andrew Bolt went blogbaiting yesterday. It was the usual wingnut bingo board – ABC, Crikey, leftist conspiracies, Jonathan Green, Eric Beecher, Annabel Crabb – the typical sort of content diversity that we’ve all come to expect from that end of the online swamp.

I’m usually spared this sort of third rate “Look at me!” piffle because our previous run ins have never ended particularly well for one us – but yesterday I too was roped into the latest dramaverse of Boltworld. Well, I was for a while, then I wasn’t, and then I was again! … but we’ll get to that bit of internet courage in a minute.

Andrew Bolt is actually a victim.

No, no, no, no… not a victim of conservative affirmative action that gets him the “lonely chair” on Insiders – a sort of special policy for special people – us idiots that watch the show are the true victims of that pernicious little act of ABC cowardice.

Uh uh. Andrew, you see, is a “victim” of terrible, gratuitous online insults that cause immeasurable hurt! You’ve got that arseclowns? It causes immeasurable hurt! But more shocking than that, if it’s even humanly possible to imagine something more shocking than being called names online by anonymous people, is that he’s the victim of rather unusual violent threats against his personal safety and that of his sphincter.

Andrew writes about your humble marsupial “one of [Jonathan] Green’s writers has urged in a headline that I be ’sodomised’ “ – referring of course to this little number from wayback, where keeping with the theme, he had his arse handed to him on a plate*

*Note to Andrew Bolt: I didn’t literally carve a chunk of your arse off and give it to you on a piece of fine China… just so we’re clear here and before you start wondering whether that’s why your jeans don’t quite fit properly anymore – it’s a metaphor.

The dramaverse of Andrew Bolt is so intense – and so extreme is the victimhood involved – that he apparently, in all honesty (who am I to question him), believed that particular piece “urged” people, *urged people* no less, to go out and stick calculators up his bum!

I imagine it made for some horrifically paranoid trips to the local Office Works – “is that bloke with the calculator a Pollytics reader”. Oh the humanity!

Now, apart from the spatial difficulties involved – with that particular area usually being filled Read More »

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Global Warming and CPRS Polling

November 18, 2009 – 8:32 am, by Possum Comitatus

Morgan released a telephone poll yesterday (split into two parts) that looks at public perceptions of global warming and views on the current CPRS legislation. It was a phone poll running off a sample of 674, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.8% mark.

The first question asked was “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming?”. There were for possible responses, and we can track them across time:

totalview

The results here support what we’ve seen in both Essential Research and Newspoll polling on this topic over the last 12 months or so – a growing level of generic scepticism towards global warming. Yet, where it becomes interesting isn’t in the headline results (although they’re interesting enough), but in the demographic and party ID composition of those results.

viewbydemo viewbyparty

Men (37%)  and non-capital city (36%) respondents are two largest and undoubtedly interrelated cohorts that believe concerns about global warming are exaggerated.There really is a substantial gender and geographic gap on global warming. On the political ID side of the equation, Labor and Greens voters have near identical levels of belief on the need to act, with the Greens having a slightly more “we’ll all be rooned” component and the ALP having a slightly larger skeptics component.  The 11% of Greens voters that believed concerns are exaggerated was a little out of left field. I’d imagine they’d be the life of the party and any Greens shindig.

Yet, this still doesn’t tell the whole story. We can compare these results from an identical poll Morgan ran on this topic 3 months ago, back in August. If we measure how the demographic and Party ID responses have changed over the period – we can see how how and where the campaign against global warming has been having it’s largest effect. Read More »

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The polling isn’t as exciting as it looks

November 17, 2009 – 9:02 am, by Possum Comitatus

With pollster and electorate volatility apparently running rampant over the last few weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at exactly what went on.

If we chart the first differences of each pollster since August – the amount that the two party preferred estimate has changed since the previous poll of that pollster – we get a good handle on the size and nature of the volatility. So if Newspoll came in at 57 up from 55 the fortnight before – that poll entry would have a value of +2. Similarly, if a Morgan face to face poll came in at 57 down from 60 in the previous Morgan face to face poll, that poll entry would have a value of -3. We’ll use the ALP for the two party preferred.

alptppchange

The polls were meandering along through August, through September and throughout October undergoing small changes within 3% each way. Suddenly at the very end of October, the polls all picked up significant movement.

Newspoll seemed to overshoot on the magnitude, but was the first poll off the rank to show a large, negative change for the ALP – coming in with the now infamous 7 point drop for the government. The other pollsters eventually followed, although it took some a little while to capture the zeitgeist, with Nielsen yawning at the whole affair. We can see the actual numbers involved if we table the behaviour since the beginning of November: Read More »

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Newspoll Tuesday -what was all the fuss about edition.

November 17, 2009 – 5:59 am, by Possum Comitatus

Newspoll via The Oz today comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 2)/ 37 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 4 point gain to Labor since last fortnights Newspoll. This comes from a sample of 1162 for an MoE of around the 2.9% mark. The Greens are on 11 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are sitting on 9 (up 1).

Considering yesterday’s Essential Report, it would seem that whatever it was in the water is still there – polling volatility is the new black. A little later today we’ll take a closer look at this hypo behaviour from the pollsters over the last month or so.(UPDATE: Here it is)

This Newspoll looks a more historically consistent result with all the metrics now back in lockstep, particularly the net satisfaction/two party preferred nexus of the ALP:

marginsatnov15

On the individual satisfaction ratings, the asylum seeker issue (or whatever it is that’s been causing everyone to go berko on the vote estimates) has caused bit of grief for Rudd – but while his satisfaction is down and dissatisfaction up over the last month, a complimentary boost to Turnbull hasn’t eventuated. It becomes particularly obvious in the net satisfaction charts. Read More »

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Essential Report – Equal lowest ever for the ALP

November 16, 2009 – 3:26 pm, by Possum Comitatus

The equal worst Essential Report for the ALP comes in with the primaries running 45 (down 3) /39 ( up 4) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 4 point gain to the Coalition. The Greens are on 9 (steady) while the broad “Others” are on 7 (down 1). This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1915, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.

This is the equal poorest result for the ALP that Essential has measured since their polls have been published, equaling the polls of mid November 2008 and late May of this year.

On the demographic cross-tabs of the vote estimates, Essential states that:

The major shift towards the Coalition in terms of primary vote is amongst people aged 65 years and over, and to a lesser extent those in the 55 – 64 year age group. There was no shift towards the Coalition amongst any other age groups.

With a Newspoll out tomorrow, I won’t run the new Pollytrend until those figures come in.

Additional questions this week concerned economic issues of major importance, best party to manage a set of given issues, the NBN, public perception of the power of various institutions,as well as the CPRS.

How concerned are you personally about each of the following economic issues facing Australia today?

econissues1On the cross-tabs we have:

Coalition voters were more likely to be very concerned about food prices and inflation generally (60%), jobs going overseas (57%) and Government debt (54%). Labor voters were more likely to be very concerned about executive wages (54%) and improving wages for low income earners (32%).

Females were more likely than males to be very concerned on most issues, in particular food prices and inflation generally (66% v 45%), improving wages for low income earners (34% v 22%) and unemployment (33% v 25%).

If we tally up the “Total concerned” and sort by order, we get: Read More »

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Weekend Polling

November 16, 2009 – 6:06 am, by Possum Comitatus

Via The Oz and Newspoll comes some specific Qld marginal seat polling undertaken in the six electorates of Dawson, Flynn, Bowman, Dickson, Longman and Herbert. The average two party preferred in these marginals was given as 54/46 to the ALP.

That equates to an average swing of 2.7% to Labor in these six electorates (The Oz has it at 2.9 but that’s not what I get), which should put the Qld wide swing at the moment something in the order of 3-4% or more. If a party receives a given swing at an election, that swing is usually smallest in their own safe seats, largest in the safe seats of their opposition, with the size of the swing in the marginal seats falling somewhere in the middle.

If we use the last election as an example and measure the different swings in certain categories of seats, it tells the story.

swings

So a swing of 2.7% in the marginals in Qld should equate to a slightly larger Qld wide swing.

Morgan released a tidbit of info in their usual face to face polling release about a telephone poll they took over November 11/12 that had the two party preferred slashed to 52/48 from a small sample of 573. If we feed that into our Pollytrend charts, we get:

pollytrendnov16 Read More »

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