Pollytrack Thursday – Nelson Retrospective Edition

Thursday will now become Pollytrack Thursday around these parts, so if you’re a complete and utter poll junkie – jot Thursdays down in your diary.

For new readers, Pollytrack is Australia’s most accurate tracking poll using a super sample of all major pollsters and weighting their individual polling results by sample size in an all pollster aggregation. We end up with super samples of between five and eight thousand respondents in size for each Pollytrack observation giving us minimum margins of error on this baby of between 1% and 2%. To see all the gory details of how it works, just click the Pollytrack link in the right sidebar, which is also where these charts are permanently stored and available for your perusal any time.

This is the final Pollytrack of the Nelson era, so we might see a very different pattern play out over the next few months as Truffles attempts to make his mark on the nation’s psych.

This week, both majors are slightly down on their primary votes with the Coalition dropping 0.1% compared to the ALP drop of 0.6%. On the two party preferred front, the Coalition is up 0.3% with the ALP obviously dropping by the same amount. This is running off a sample of 6155 giving us a theoretical minimum margin of error of 1.25% – making this week’s movement well within the realm of statistical noise.

The numerical details including the poll composition looks like this for the week:

The Pollytrack vote estimates look like this (for new readers, those little bars on the Pollytrack lines show the minimum margin of error for each polling point).Just click the charts to expand them.

The size of the vote swings since the last election, including the number of seats that would fall were these polling results repeated at an election (assuming a uniform swing on the national pendulum) look like this:

The sample size/theoretical minimum margin of error for these polls look like this:

We also plot an All Polls series where we run a loess regression through it to pick up the pattern of longer term trends.

From those last charts, we can clearly see that there were good reasons to remove Nelson. Now with Turbull at the helm, the polls might once again become a bit more interesting than of late.