With the closing of the Nelson Era, it might be a good time for us to break out ye olde crystal ball and make a guess at the size of the polling bounce Truffles can expect to deliver for the Coalition. If we have a quick squiz at how much of a polling bounce previous Opposition leaders enjoyed, it might give us something of a baseline to work from.
To keep this an apples with apples comparison, we’ll only be looking at those Opposition leaders that came into the job at a time other than immediately after an election.
That gives us Peacock, Downer and Howard from the Libs balancing out Latham, Beazley MkII and Rudd from Labor. Here we’ll be using Newspoll data except for those times where the Newspoll two party preferred vote wasn’t available – for those periods we’ll be using Pollytics own TPP estimates based on Newspoll primaries (and for those that don’t know, you can see the entire set of those estimates in a zoomy little interactive widget by clicking “The Long View” link on the right sidebar).
The coloured vertical line in the charts below show just when the given Opposition leader took over their party.
Opposition Leadership Effects – Coalition
Opposition Leadership Effects – ALP
Just a word of warning – some of those old Newspoll and TPP estimates were pretty volatile when compared to polling results today, so it might be something worth keeping in mind. So saying, the average Coalition bounce from a leadership change was 5.7% on the primary and 6% on the TPP. This compares to Labor’s average leadership change bounce of 3.6% on the primary and 1.7% on the TPP. The total average leadership change bounce was 4.6% on the primary and 3.8% on the TPP across the 6 historical examples we have available.
Turnbull ought to get a bounce in the polling – not only because Nelson was eating into the Coalition base vote, but every mid term opposition leadership change except Beazley MkII has gained a bounce. Beazley MkII it might be said, gained the leadership only months into Howard’s last term of government (the end of January 2005) and only barely qualified for this list.
So let’s test the collective wisdom of the Crikey pollyblogs audience – in the sidebar is a poll asking what size bounce you expect Turnbull to deliver this coming Newspoll. Pollbludger is running the very same poll where the collective responses from each site produce those results you see after you make your guess .
This will be turning into a regular feature for Newspoll, so we’ll be able to see if we’re all as smart as we think we are 
UPDATE:
The big green bald guy (Jonathan Green otherwise known as My Boss) had a particularly acute bout of philanthropy and has offered up a free Crikey subscription for the winner.
The rules of the game are simple – to qualify for the prize you must enter your predictions for this coming Newspoll on:
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition
2.The Coalition Primary Vote
3.The ALP Primary Vote
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number.
People will be eliminated on the basis of 1 through 6 in order, so if you get the TPP right you move on to the Coalition primary vote. If you get that right you move on to the ALP primary vote and so on. Last person standing wins the subscription, or if the last few people all get eliminated, it will be the person that get’s closest to that last final polling result.
If we still have a tie after that, the tied folk will do it again next Newspoll to decide the winner
The other qualification is that you must write at least one sentence on why you think the scores will be as you predicted.
One entry per person.
Let the games begin!
Elsewhere: Larvatus Prodeo on the B… b… bounce? where you can play “impersonate your favourite press gallery journo”.
UPDATE 2:
To keep it fair, polls will start to leak soon so comments closed.
57 Comments
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I suspect the Costello distraction and Wall street calamities might drown out and dampen the size of the affect on polls not to mention those focussing on football finals. If people are worried about the economy and future then sticking with encumbent feels good and being a dull and boring person as Swan and Rudd often appear just adds to that effect. I suspect excepting MOE Labor might lose only 1% in this first poll notwithstanding the PR given to Turnbull by some parts of the media.
All those changes in opposition leaders were against the backdrop of a Governement which had been in power for some time. This clearly doesn’t apply here.
I suspect the following will happen with Newspoll:
Turnbull’s approval will have a significant undecided group ~ 40%, and a low disapproval ~15%, with an approval ~ 45%.
Rudd’s ratings will be largely unchanged.
Preferred PM ratings will change from ~ 60/15 to ~ 50/30
The Coalition’s vote will increase to 40/41 the ALP’s vote will stay at 44/45 translating to a TPP of ~ 54/46.
I agree with Aristotle on the PPM numbers – a definite narrowing in Rudd’s lead as some soft-libs swing back to Turnbull.
I’m predicting 53/47 TPP, with an increase in the Libs primary vote coming at the expense of “Other”.
I with the 53/47, but it’ll be a dead cat bounce I reckon because the more the electorate see of Truffle, the more they’ll mark him down.
A Crikey subscription to the lucky winner! There: prizes for all.
Cant do that JG – the poll is anonymous!
Bother, I put something on LP too! My reputation in tatters!
Problem solved – any comments starting below this one qualify for the contest – so Ari, Swing and An Cat, you’ll need to redo them again in the right format and throw them in below to qualify.
Big thanks to The Boss.
OK, Possum, as requested.
The rules of the game are simple – to qualify for the prize you must enter your predictions for this coming Newspoll on:
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition = 54/46
2.The Coalition Primary Vote = 40
3.The ALP Primary Vote = 44
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull = 28
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd = 52
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number = 20.
ALP 57-43 TPP
Coalition Primary 37
ALP Primary 46
Talcum PPM 19
Rudd PPM 61
Undecided 20
If you put lipstick on the Liberal Party it is still a … the leader is basically irrelevant.
Okay I’m game – and my renewal is coming up!
ALP 56-44
Coalition Primary 37
ALP Primary 44
Truffles PPM 25
Ruddster 60
Undecided 15
Because DJ Truffles will snare some of the formerly undecided “used to live in a rented flat” demographic.
ALP 55-45 TPP
Coalition Primary 38
ALP Primary 45
Talcum PPM 26
Rudd PPM 59
Undecided 15
“a life unexamined is a life unlived” the fibs need to start examining themselves,internally is a good starting point.
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition -> ALP 54, Coalition 46
2.The Coalition Primary Vote -> 39%
3.The ALP Primary Vote -> 44%
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull -> 30%
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd -> 52%
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number. -> 18%
2PP 55/45
Coalition Primary 40
ALP Primary 45
Turnbull PPM 20
Rudd PPM 58
Undecideds 22
The various Lib leadership antics and Turnbull’s in-your-face attitude means that I don’t think we will see the big leap in undecideds that might be expected. I think most of the electorate will already have an opinion and that – while being an improvement on their opinion of Nelson – will not be anything like the Libs might be hoping for.
2PP = ALP 56 / LIB 44
PRIMARY ALP = 45
PRIMARY LIB = 40
PREFERRED PM RUDD 60
PREFERRED PM TURNBULL 25
PREFERRED PN UNDECIDED 15
Turnbull may get a better response as preferred PM than Nelson, and he may appeal to more moderate liberals to return, but I see nothing the govt has done wrong, so no harm to the lead they have in the polls.
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition
ALP 56, Coalition 44
2.The Coalition Primary Vote
39
3.The ALP Primary Vote
43
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull
32
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd
55
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number.
13
I’m swinging wild here!
2PP ALP = 54
2PP LIB = 46
PRIMARY LIB = 37
PRIMARY ALP= 44
PREFERRED PM RUDD 57
PREFERRED PM TURNBULL 23
PREFERRED PM UNDECIDED 14
PREFERRED PM NEITHER 6
I can’t see Turnbull getting any bounce for the Coalition and predict tyhat the early couple of Polls will be his “honeymoon” period, it may well be all downhill from there as far as PPM goes.
Possum, is it possible to get a scorpion for my avatar?
I like my comments to have a little “sting” to them occasionally. Thanks.
“internaly examining the lib’s”
eew… I can understand their reluctance
Geez… ok I’m game:
1. 2PP: ALP 53/ LIB 47
2.The Coalition Primary Vote: 40
3.The ALP Primary Vote: 44
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull: 28
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd: 59
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number. 13
Hi Possum first time comment. long term reader.
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition = 55/45
2.The Coalition Primary Vote = 38
3.The ALP Primary Vote = 45
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull = 27
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd = 56
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number = 17.
Oh whoops my sentence:
) in America.
It’s still a couple years out from the eleciton, so people aren’t that engaged. So it won’t excite the populous as much as Palin did (ever so briefly
A rare outlier is coming:
ALP 58-42 TPP
Coalition Primary 36
ALP Primary 46
Talcum PPM 22
Rudd PPM 62
Undecided 21
ALP 55/45 TPP
Coalition Primary 39
ALP Primary 44
Turnbull PPM 28
Rudd PPM 55
Undecided 17
Labor has tracked around 55 for two years (except during the last of the campaign with the union boss frighteners). Fed leanings have definitely shifted away from the LNP and it was only Howard’s personal appeal which kept them in the hunt last year.
A jump in Opp PPM will be the rusted-on Libs finally having someone decent to support.
I think for the man in the street, well, Turnbull will have to earn his stripes – not just pin them on and announce that he’s arrived.
ALP 53/47 TPP
Coalition Primary 41
Labor Primary 45
Turnbull PPM 29
Rudd PPM 55
Undecided 16
Comments are as above (post 3) – i.e. movement in small-l liberals back to Turnbull after they’ve been parked with Rudd/Other for a while…
17 Scorpio – I think you mean ALP 2PP is 54, not 64… (much as we may wish!)
I think he did grog – unless there’s 110% of the population floating around. I’ve fixed it up.
ALP 54/46 TPP
Coalition primary 40
ALP Primary 44
Turnbull PPM 30
Rudd PPM 54
Undecided 16
Yeah, thanks Grog.
That’s what you get for doing things in a hurry and trying to cook supper at the same time.
Possum,
Thanks for the earlier deletions. Could I impose upon you to change the ALP 2PP from “64″ to “54″ please?
What a clever marsupial you are. Thanks.
ALP 55-45 TPP
Coalition Primary 36
ALP Primary 44
Turnbull PPM 26
Rudd PPM 57
Undecided 13
Comment: trouble over pensions/other economic woes to dent Labor.
It looks as though I may have to float like a “butterfly” for a while instead of “sting” like the scorpion I am?
scorpio – if you find a pic of a scorpion, sign up with
http://en.gravatar.com/
Upload the pic and that will be your gravatar not only on the Crikey blogs, but any other blog that uses the gravatar system.
TPP ALP 54/46
ALP Primary 43
Coalition Primary 36
Rudd PPM 58
Turnbull PPm 36
Undecided 12
TPP ALP 56/44
ALP Primary 44
Coalition Primary 34
Rudd PPM 57
Turnbull PPm 32
Undecided 16
TPP 57/43
The rest is wishful thinking.
Thanks, Possum.
I was already signed up with gravatar but had trouble with logging in a picture.
Hopefully fixed now.
Whatevr it was last time.
Polls don’t bounce, they glide.
1. ALP 53 – 47
2. 40
3. 43
4. 29
5. 51
6. 20
Shanahan will conduct the push-polling himself in order to finally write the “Forget the Honeymoon, It’s Divorce” headline he’s been sitting on.
Maxine looking very glamorous on Q&A tonight and is very sharp.
Tony Abbott is following the same pattern as his fellow Libs on this program.
Trying to defend the indefensible and getting a bit cranky when it isn’t working.
If only they wouldn’t keep trying to take us and the audience as fools and admit their mistakes, they would be t5aken more seriously.
I can’t see it happening though. They are too well trained in this by Howard.
54: 46 for me on TPP
ALP Primary 44
Coalition Primary 34
Rudd PPM 58
Turnbull PPM 30
Undecided 18
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition = ALP 57% – Liberal/Nationals 43%
2.The Coalition Primary Vote – 39%
3.The ALP Primary Vote – 44%
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull – 31%
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd – 60%
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number – 9%
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition = 55/45
2.The Coalition Primary Vote = 39
3.The ALP Primary Vote = 46
4.The Preferred PM score of Aquaman = 24
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd = 56
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number = 20.
Aquaman is already well known, and the continued shenanigans in the senate and crocodile tears over pensioners, plus the concerted effort on behalf of Lambo and Roller distributors will dampen any bounce this dead and rather smelly cat might gain.
If Talksbull gains more than a 5% bounce – a new nickname is in order – Berocca (sp?)
The rationale to go with 42 is; I think the voting intention is not going to change outside MoE and there’ll be more interest in Turnbull, at least initially.
1. The TPP vote of the ALP and Coalition 53/47
2. Coalition Primary Vote 39
3. ALP Primary Vote 43
4. Preferred PM Turnbull 30
5. Preferred PM Rudd 54
6. Preferred PM Undecided 16
Reckon next poll will be bit of a mischevious poll with lots of misleading voting intentions to stir us up.
1. 54/46 to ALP
2. 38
3. 43
4. PPM MT 28
5. PPM KR 50
6. PPM U 22
Brendan has been dragging the Coalition vote down, but they still have a lot of troubles.
The ALP vote is fairly static. But the WA change may be reflected. Whatever happens we may rest assured that Malcolm will be robust in his willingness to take the cred
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition = 54/46
2.The Coalition Primary Vote = 40
3.The ALP Primary Vote = 44
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull = 26
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd = 58
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number = 16.
1. The Two Party Preferred Vote of the ALP and Coalition
– ALP = 54, C = 46
2.The Coalition Primary Vote
– C = 39
3.The ALP Primary Vote
– ALP = 44
4.The Preferred PM score of Truffles Turnbull
– MT PPM = 22
5.The Preferred PM score of Rudd
– KR PPM = 63
6.The Preferred Prime Minister Undecideds number.
– U PPM = 15
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