Do past polling patterns bear out this theory: the initial bounce, followed by the smaller bounce from the stragglers?

Cuppa for your thesis to be consistent, you would have to argue that those same apathetic people in the pub would be unlikely to know the name of the Prime Minister.

So you’re implying that the name of the latest leader of the Liberal Party (the third leader in less than a year of a party not in government) would be as popularly-known as the name of the Prime Minister?

What the …! Now, I know you’re a Liberal, GP, and you’d like to see your stocks raised, but this is pretty desperate wishful thinking. Sounds like chutzpah; do you really believe what you wrote?

It’s a pretty unlikely scenario that Turnbull didnt have something to do with these poll figures, and even though a large chunk of the population is turned off from politics, most still catch the news be it in the papers, on the TV or on the radio.

At the end of the day, the data is the day and it suggests a poll pounce with an extremely high probability. All we can do is really go with the data, because the alternative is pretty much akin to “making stuff up”

Ari – I’d love to see some Galaxy polls with voting intention too. More polls from all I reckon!

Cuppa for your thesis to be consistent, you would have to argue that those same apathetic people in the pub would be unlikely to know the name of the Prime Minister.

Possibly it’s due to Turnbull, probably even, but not necessarily.

Point taken though, the polls are what they are and we must take them at face value, aggregate and follow trends.

It is also true that bloggers criticise the media from time to time about their self importance without acknowledging our own failings and biases.

However, when it comes to the polling numbers, they are what they are. All you can do is take the results on face value, aggregate them, and track the trends over time. 

Essential research is friendlier to the ALP than the others, so I would like to see some Galaxy numbers, which tends to be more favourable to the L/NP, for the tally to be more balanced.  Still, it’s an indication, and that’s fair enough for now, and this tracking that Possum is doing is first rate.

In my view, the Turnbull change has unquestionably boosted the L/NP’s stocks, but whether that vote holds up over time, is another matter entirely.

Most people know and care very little about politics. As polling and political tragics we must not fall into the trap of pinning motivations to the public that aren’t really justified.

On these blogs we often criticise the press gallery for operating in a rarefied bubble and assuming the general public gives a stuff for their ruminations. We should be wary we in the blogosphere do not allow ourselves to become the same.