With a new Morgan F2F out today and an EMC out Monday, we have a full big sample set for the latest post-Turnbull vote estimates and it looks like Truffle’s souffle has sunk. To know for sure, the next Newspoll and EMC will come in handy next week - but with the new data we have this week, the leadership bounce for the Member for Wentworth doesn’t look particularly long lived.
Our usual Pollytrack charts come in like this:
What is interesting here is the sharp one week drop in the series when Turnbull took over – a drop that had zero carry through into the next week (and we still have the last ACN and Newspoll estimates built into the current Pollytrack value which were favourable to Turnbull). If all the polls move together like they usually do, then by next ACN and Newspoll, Pollytrack should show the ALP being in a better position than before Turnbull took over …… not good news for the Coalition, but we’ll have to wait and see.
UPDATE:
And this is what the LOESS regressions look like, with the high sensitivity regression showing the swing back effect.
10 Comments
I agree. His bounce has busted.
I think the international financial crisis was a test for both Rudd and Turnbull.
Now international crises will generally favour the incumbent, but Rudd and Swan have looked in control and Turnbull and Bishop have looked opportunistic and rather amateurish. This was a big opportunity for Turnbull to shine, but he’s blown it with silly populist pitches. And the biggest problem of all for Turnbull is, that these unflattering perceptions once formed, will be very hard to dispel.
Rudd on the other hand, has only enhanced his perception of being a calm and ordered PM.
Hello Possum not trying to get personal or anything but in the last few weeks we’ve had 3 of your mob turn up with babies on their backs. and as there was a wedding a while back was just wondering if congrats are in order for you and Mrs poss lol.
It is possible some in the public associate Turnbull, the former merchant banker,with what is happening to American banks and their economy generally. Maybe Labor will leverage this association further.
Worst… bounce… ever
This is becoming more and more fascinating, Possum. Food for much speculation. Perhaps the merchant banker as leader of Her Maj.’s Loyal Opposition was maybe not “The Man for all Seasons”?
Seems more people put more credibility in Rudd’s visit to NY than the Media’s attack on Rudd for going to NY.
Thus Rudd +1 Media -1 Turnbull 0
It would seems Turnbull’s ascension was consumed by the Rudd/Swan economic ascension – so far.
Seems to be more of a splat than a bounce!
As always your analysis is grounded in fact and truely informative – love your work cheers
Where to now for the Libs? Is plan C still around or is he at a book pulping?
Now that the Silvertails won the Rugby League, Is Truffles up or down in the ratings?