The latest Essential Report has been released with the ALP leading on the primary vote 47 (steady) to the Coalition 36 (up 1) for a TPP of 58/42 (steady). The Essential Report polling charts look like this:
Along with vote estimates, ER also polled on Rudd’s approval:
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
Strongly approve 11%
Approve 45%
Disapprove 23%
Strongly disapprove 8%
Don’t know 13%
TOTAL APPROVE 56%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 31%
If we look at the history of ER approval results we get:
Then comes a swag of different questions:
The Productivity Commission has recommended 18 weeks paid maternity leave for working mothers. Payments would be made by the Government at the adult minimum wage of about $544 a week. Do you think this scheme goes to far, doesn’t go far enough or is about right?
Goes too far 33%
Doesn’t go far enough 16%
About right 41%
No opinion 10%
Do you think employers should top up the Government payments so that working mothers receive their usual salary while on maternity leave?
Should top up Government payments 33%
Should not top up Government payments 50%
No opinion 17%
From what you have read and heard do you think the Federal Government plans to tackle climate change go too far, don’t go far enough or are about right?
Go too far 16%
Don’t go far enough 45%
About right 25%
No opinion 14%
On the politics the results are interesting with a solid majority behind paid maternity leave but half the country thinking that it’s something that only the government should pay.
The Climate Change results dont look good for the Coalition with 70% of the country saying it’s about right or doesnt go far enough, with only 16% following the old-but-yet-to-be-fully-dismantled Coalition position and 14% having no opinion.
4 Comments
Not a bad set of numbers all round!
The total disapprove figures for Kevin Rudd (31%) are lower than the Coalition primary vote of 36%, indicating that there are some Coalition supporters who approve of the job Kev is doing. If an election were held this week, that situation would be very helpful indeed.
The figures of support for climate change action look encouraging as well. Labor appears to be playing the politics on this quite successfully.
If the fallout from the economic crisis continues all the the way into 2010, the anticipated ETS commencement year, the governemnt will have to juggle most energetically to keep all balls in the air at once. I’m confident they can do it; I just hope Kev and Co don’t burn out in the meantime.
Hmmm - any chance that Essential Research are fine tuning their weightings - hence the reducing amplitude of the first two graphs?
Otherwise the electorate has either switched off, or grown pretty comfortable with ‘Kev from Queensland who’s here to help’.
Is there a betting market on Turnbull reaching the next election?
I’m a bit struck by the responses to the maternity leave questions - we really are out of step with the developed world there, and I’m not sure what the drivers really are - is it really just envy that someone’s getting something (for nothing!!)?
Onimod,
As you could imagine, pollsters are pretty secret squirrel when it comes to their methodology, but I can confirm that The Essential Report improved and refined the mechanics of their sampling frame and it’s population distribution around the end of June, which appears to have resulted in that substantial reduction in variance.
I haven’t really been following any Australian betting markets lately - but it’s a good question!
To borrow a bit of US terminology - Turnbull needs a ‘game changer’ at this point, because despite the world coming down around us it’s having apparently little of no effect politically. I don’t think he’s got it in him - even the usually meek 7:30 report called his intellectual bluff last night - first Mark Bannerman effectively laughed at him to his face and Alan Kohler doubled up with “He’s just saying something political, really, it’s not particularly sensible thing to say…”
History says that popularity is linked to economic prosperity. Either something’s happened to history, or the turmoil is actually driving voters to labour. I just can’t imagine that there isn’t a set of electors who voted Rudd, but are now running back to JWH’s skirts. I wonder if somehow Turnbull isn’t actually innoculating The LP against this historically typical return?
I wouldn’t mind seeing that graph with the adjusted methodology applied to the pre-July numbers (if that’s possible) because the consistency is pretty amazing really.
Maybe I just find it amazing because it’s so starkly in contrast with ‘the narrative’(TM).