The link Ecky gave just about sums it all up except to say that if there is a Bradley Effect operating in a handful of States at a few percentage points, I think it will be almost impossible to pick up because it will probably be washed away by turnout on the one hand and the cell phone effect and the increase in the 18-35 year age group Democrat vote on the other.

Anyone that says Obama should subtract 7% from poll results – 7%!! – is quite frankly off with the fairies.We saw nothing like that in the primaries and nothing like that in the last 20 years of US politics.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/bradley%20effect

And yes, was likewise appalled, but not surprised at Mc/Palin’s tacit nods to bigotry you mentioned on LP. Cheers, EC.

“The term refers to Tom Bradley, a former black mayor of Los Angeles, who lost his 1982 bid to become governor of California, even though every poll in the state showed him leading his white opponent by substantial margins. Similar results appeared in 1989, when David Dinkins ran for mayor of New York City and Douglas Wilder sought election as governor of Virginia. Dinkins was ahead by 18 percentage points, but won by only two, and Wilder was leading by nine points, but squeaked through by only half a percent. Numerous other examples lead Hacker to offer this advice to Obama campaign offices: always subtract 7% from favorable poll results. That’s the potential Bradley effect.”

From Is This Election the Major Historical Turning Point It Seems to Be? Yes
By Chalmers Johnson, Tomdispatch.com. Posted October 8, 2008.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174987/chalmers_johnson_the_ultimate_election

Pretty much like what we’re seeing at the moment.

Poss, do you have any info on the accuracy of polling in past US elections?

Nifty neologism, Dio.

May I humbly suggest that “consilience” would be a more apposite word than “confluence”?

Consilience, or the unity of knowledge (literally a “jumping together” of knowledge), has its roots in the ancient Greek concept of an intrinsic orderliness that governs our cosmos, inherently comprehensible by logical process, a vision at odds with mystical views in many cultures that surrounded the Hellenes.

I suppose it is what you’d expect when you think about it. I’m surprised a little though since there seems to have been be a fair bit of insider activity on the Intrade state markets previously where a State will jump a few points to be followed by a poll or two a few days later backing the movement up. Things like that.

In Australia, oddly enough, the opposite happened last year where the polls led the way a long way out and where it took the headline betting markets a while to catch up, and where the individual seat markets didnt really get their act together until the last week or so.

PJN, I was playing around this morning trying to find a way to highlight the probability gap between the two big clusters of states – that seemed to do the trick!

Glad you like