Comments on: Obama’s 376 Ceiling

By: cyclosarin

cyclosarin — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 15:07:07 +0000

Oh and Possum, that same article I just linked, says this about the odd graphs you and I just posted before:

We don’t know about other cities, but lawyers here in Chicago are talking about something BIG going down. On in-trade, someone short-sold Obama and bought $140,000 in shares for a McCain win on November 4th, dropping Obama’s intrade price from roughly $75/share to $64/share or so.

By: cyclosarin

cyclosarin — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 15:03:07 +0000

I don't know how credible this is, but this Hillary Clinton-based blog claims there is a RICO (Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organizations) Statute investigation into the ties between the Obama campaign and massive voter fraud in 15 (or more) states by ACORN. The RICO Act is the primary tool the FBI uses for combating organized crime, and that they are (or maybe, depending on how solid this info is) looking into Obama is quite significant. Link

By: Possum

Possum — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 01:43:13 +0000

Heh! It is 163 – makes you wonder how I got 165 via a spreadsheet (I’m failing the maths of drag and drop… Oh the humanity!)

Thanks.

The Intrade baseline is 163 (just checked with a good old fashioned calculator) – and then there’s 1 NE vote, but Intrade doesnt (yet) run a market on Maine and Nebraska allocating EVs other than homogeneously.

It will be interesting to see if they do, and what the odds come out as.

By: Charles Richardson

Charles Richardson — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 00:53:20 +0000

Hi Poss – Unless my artithmetic’s gone wonky, I think the GOP baseline is 163, or 162 when you take out NE-2 (i.e. 538 minus 376).

By: David Richards

David Richards — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 14:26:27 +0000

So – even putting the rosiest spin on it ya can from McCain’s side …. they are basically stuffed. To use an apt analogy considering a certain event on a certain mountain this weekend – McCain is six laps down on the leader and needs an almighty pile up at skyline to take out the leaders if he’s to win.

By: Possum

Possum — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 08:36:29 +0000

Ta Wakefield – I must have been possessed by Sarah Palin there for a bit.

By: Wakefield

Wakefield — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:45:24 +0000

Possum – assume you mean 165 not 265 for GOP base figure?

By: steve

steve — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 23:09:17 +0000

Rocket Rocket here’s the real Brendan.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hL7vU_8iwPA&feature=related

By: Possum

Possum — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:26:04 +0000

Rocket – thanks to the knowledge pit over at Pollbludger, that’s US Democrat Senator for Florida Bill Nelson!

Cyclo – I took this last night on the Intrade contender markets of that sad attempt by Republicans to give their new ad momentum:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/macainonaughts.png

They’ve been pulling shit like that for weeks. Never works mind you, but fools and their money….

By: Rocket Rocket

Rocket Rocket — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 12:09:13 +0000

While talking about Intrade.com, can anyone go to the market on Australian Politics, and click on Brendan Nelson being leader of the Liberal Party at the next election? Done it? Who on earth is that a picture of??? Does anyone out there know??

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=615066&z=1223557924483