Today we have a Newspoll out to go with our Essential Report of yesterday. On the Newspoll front we have the the primaries running Labor’s way 41/38 (ALP down 1, Coalition steady) for a steady TPP of 55/45. On the Essential Report side of things we have the primaries running Labor’s way 44/37 (ALP down 3, Coalition up 1) for a TPP of 57/43 (Coalition up 1).
Plugging this data into our Pollytrack series we get the usual charts with all the info about the polls making up the current Pollytrack window in that little data box at the end (and what you see over on the right in the sidebar)
As we thought last week, the Turnbull bounce seems to have lasted a week in the TPP stakes and Pollytrack for the Coalition is now back to being about half a TPP point above where Nelson left it. On the primary vote front, Truffles seems to have boosted the Coalition vote by nearly 2 points from the level he inherited. There’s still the favourable Nielsen in the Pollytrack window for Turnbull that might be boosting those numbers slightly, but that will all wash out next week.
Our high and low sensitivity LOESS regressions using all pollster data come in this week like this.
Both regressions have the Primary vote for Labor running at 43.5 to 44 and around 37 for the Coalition, while the TPP comes in for both regressions at around the 56.5 mark to the ALP. It’s probably worth noting here that there is a fair bit of variance lately in the ALP primary vote from the pollsters.
Moving along to the qual metrics, we have our first set of satisfaction ratings for Turnbull.
As far as sat ratings go, it’s not a bad start. Looking at the netsats with both undecideds included and excluded we get:
While that looks pretty good, there’s nothing really to get excited about. Turnbull might have the best satisfaction ratings of any new mid-term opposition leader in the last decade but elections are about votes (ask Beazley) and on this score the Turnbull leadership has been a bit of a comparative failure.
Latham had a 6 point primary vote bounce and a 2 point TPP bounce a month into his leadership, Beazley went backwards by a point in poth primary and TPP scores while Rudd had a 5 point bounce in the primary vote (turning quickly into a 7 and 8 point bounce) and a 4 point bounce in the TPP a month in – all using Newspoll figures.
Turnbull on the other hand might have a decent satisfaction rating, but he’s had a one point bounce in both TPP and primary votes, making less of an impact than Rudd or Latham but better than Beazley Mk 2 – which makes you wonder what the folks at the Oz were smoking this morning .
If we fold into this the Preferred PM results:
There’s a small improvement for the Coalition. But again, contrary to what has been reported elsewhere today, this is hardly a good historical result for Turnbull. One month into their leadership, Latham had a PPM of 31 (15 points behind Howard), Beazley Mk2 had a PPM of 31 (27 points behind Howard), Rudd had a PPM of 39 (just 2 points behind Howard) while Turnbull has a PPM of 26 – lower than all of the above, and is 28 points behind the Prime Minister, again, more than the other leaders were one month in.
At the moment, using just the data, Turnbull’s leadership is closer to a Beazley Mk2 impact than either Rudd or Latham. Satisfaction has increased from a low base, but the thing that matters – voting intention – has gone statistically nowhere and he’s the worse comparative leader in the beauty pagent of PPM of all new mid-term Opposition Leaders in the last decade.
Finally, moving right along from debunking silly Newspoll commentary, here’s what the all pollster charts look like:
Elsewhere: Poll Bludger and Larvatus Prodeo
3 Comments
Another great analysis Poss, lucidly illustrated. Thankfully we can rely on your balanced observations to counter the cherry-picking commentary that characterizes the Oz.
Would be interesting to know how polls react in times of ‘crisis’. The next few polls will be instructive maybe.
Well Morgan produced two polls. F2F and Phone poll both 57/43 with Rudd up as PPM and Approval. Certainly didn’t lose anything and maybe firmed up his credibility as PM.