Comments on: Final weekly Intrade roundup

By: Possum

Possum — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 23:03:46 +0000

Captain, try
http://geekmedia.org/tradesports/

The site seems to be having a temporary conniption at the moment, but should be back up soon.

It has a database of 2004 intrade prices for the pres election.

By: Captain Ramen

Captain Ramen — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:48:01 +0000

This shows what intrade is saying today but what about tomorrow? I mean what I want to know is, in 2004, how accurate intrade was over the lifetime of the contract? And where was it a day or two from the election? I have been unable to find this data anywhere.

By: Blick Log » Vorhersagebörsen als relevante Prognoseinstrumente

Blick Log » Vorhersagebörsen als relevante Prognoseinstrumente — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:35:59 +0000

...] die Prognosen der prediction markets gleichberechtigt neben die Prognosen aus Umfragen. Der Blog Pollytics bot z.B. wöchentlich eine ausführliches Analyse des Intrade-Handels zur Präsidentschaftswahl. Medien, [...

By: nigeleccles

nigeleccles — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 11:44:33 +0000

That’s pretty close to our forecast. We’ve got Obama at 364 (http://www.hubdub.com/election_map) with Indiana too close to call.

It is interesting how the markets seem to have factored in the potential for an October surprise. Each day that goes past without a surprise the markets move another half a percent to Obama. Maybe the surprise this year was that there is no surprise?!

By: Possum

Possum — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 04:31:08 +0000

Ltep – I wanted my October Surprise too!

By: Possum

Possum — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 04:24:54 +0000

Dan, MO was sitting above 50% for a fair while and Indiana was closer than it is now. So in the simulations, an extra 11 votes turned up over 60% of the time (caused by either MO falling Dem a majority of times in the sim and a few times when MO was called for the Repubs but Indiana went Dem).

Now that MO and IN have pulled back, 11 votes (from either MO or IN) get called for the Dems less than 50% of the time, hence the change from 364 where Intrade has been sitting for a while down to 553. Last week IN and MO were both called for the Dems a majority of the time making last weeks EV 375 – but that was a bit of a blip with MO and IN just happening to peak at above 50% for a day when the data was collected at the close of trade Sunday Intrade time.

Requestathon is coming – but you bastards asked such tricky questions I’m gallivanting around the place trying to hunt down the data to answer them!

Surely one of you could have asked something I already had sitting in my database!

But no – you lot had to go and get all creative and tricky and obscure!

By: Dan

Dan — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 04:13:10 +0000

Why is the simulation predicting 353 when several of these states (I’m thinking specifically MO and IN here) haven’t dropped by big margins? These two weren’t over the 70% cutoff anyway, so why should a change in win probability that’s still in the central range make such a big difference to the model? If it’s within say 45-55 surely they’re too close to call. I’m wondering whether we were counting these states as DEM in the sim when we shouldn’t have.

Also, where did requestathon go? Seems to have done a nelson and sank without a trace…

By: ltep

ltep — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 03:13:37 +0000

“the time left for McCain to find a game changer has all but run out”

It’s a shame really. You would’ve thought they could’ve come up with some last minute desperate smear. Instead they had to embarass themselves with that SNL sketch!