Not telling you anything new here, but Obama won with what looks like 364 EV’s- the number Intrade predicted this morning although Indiana and Missouri swapped.
Mumbles is having goose for dinner, the Bradley Effect went AWOL, the cell phone effect seems to be there in some places and completely absent in others, the polls were right, the pundits trying to make the race close were full of it and the election was really over about an hour/hour and a half into the count. The “Obama will be killed by the Republican machine” crowd were living in the past, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio pissed it in and according to the polls and the markets were always going to for the last 3 weeks or so (some a lot longer) despite the lint powered column inches and blogorhoea to the contrary.
Data beat punditry, statistics beat navel gazing, demographic analysis beat wishful thinking.
The intertubes were 3 hours ahead of the network coverage, Dick Morris should never show his face in public again if he had an ounce of integrity, and, most importantly, this has been a demonstration that sometimes things dont happen in the same tired old ways they always have before.
Tomorrow we’ll start to look at how things stacked up like polls vs. markets and MSM princesses that couldn’t find their arse with a map, as well as having a squiz at the latest NSW and Victorian polling.
So for the Dem supporters, Yes You DID! For the Rep supporters – commiserations, but seriously, you really deserved it with idiocy like Palin.
Until tomorrow……..
7 Comments
Did anyone see Christopher Hitchens on the ABC…hilarious stuff, he was mauling Bob Carr.
By the way where was Carr’s Bradley effect?
You don’t mean for writing stuff like this?
http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.html
In Intrade we trust!
TP – the idiot who sctawled that piece of nonsense should be arrested for falsely claiming his wage from whatever media outlet employs him/her. Sheesh, simple maths – if he was below 50% but had a 5% lead over McCain.. Who got the remainder?
Poss – I was pondering how it would have affected the outcomes of US elections if the EVs were allocated pro rata to the popular vote in each state instead of all going to the majority vote winner, would any elections have had different outcomes as far as who got the keys to that special house in DC?
Possum,
Saw this on Troppo.
http://xkcd.com/
Possum, I had a brief look at 538s predictions versus reality… Nate’s method seemed to hit the nail on the head in a lot of states and he called them almost all right (with Indiana the exception). Yesterday was a win for the stats nerds!
Hello. This is our first comment, so we thought we’d make it a real good one.
This is our prediction, and we hope we are wrong.
We think that Obama will be the first US President to be assassinated (or buttbuttinated if you want the censored version) since Kennedy.
The (we hate the term…) NeoConservatives and wonderful* websites like Conservapedia have been breeding to much hate and ignorance.
Again, we hope we are wrong, but still, that’s our prediction.
Cheers,
SZ
*Sarcasm. Ok?