Another thread to dump any requests you might have, or data you might like to see or analysis you think would be interesting and spiffy.
Sometimes it might take me a few weeks or even months to either do the analysis (or figure out a way to do the analysis) or even just to get the data to enable it, and there’s times when the data isn’t available to do some of the requests.
But so saying, you never know until you try.
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13 Comments
Hey Possum,
Would there be any way to look at Australia’s views on Immigration vs Economic growth? This would show us if the theory that people generally blame immigrants during times of economic uncertainty is in fact true. Perhaps you could substitute the One Nation vote in various states with that State’s level of economic growth? I’m not sure, but anyway I think it would be interesting.
Thanks and once again, awesome segment.
I know just where and how to do that Count! We wont even need to substitute data, we can go straight to the survey data for comparison.
(Should we resubmit things from the last thread? Anyway here is my request, altered slightly for clarity.)
I’d like to see all the Intrade two-cornered political contest data you have, as of the day before the relevant election, sorted into 10% (or 5%, if there’s enough) bins, based on the Intrade probability of the higher candidate. For each bin, calculate the percentage of the elections in that bin that the candidate actually won and plot it.
If Intrade probability matches real probability, we’d expect a linear relationship. How the relationship deviates from that should give us a way of exactly accounting for long-shot bias (and similar effects) in future – a formula to convert an Intrade price to a real world event probability.
No need Caf, I’m keeping a list of all the questions – I’ll just add a new thread every week to bump it up to the top of the entry page to make it easy to find.
I’m waiting for the final Senate seat results to come in so we can do it with this election’s data – there’s still a couple of outstanding races.
Thinking about the recent flow of car subsidies pork, could we see a graphing of said pork against the margin of state/fed electorates the workers live in? There’s probably no direct relationship, more a regular occasional porking, but it would be interesting to see.
I was fascinated by a comment in a recent post that Greens voters were quite likely to put down no religion on the census.
Any chance of some fancy graph plotting major religions vs voting habits, with some thoughts on possible causes/correlations.
I’m not trying to start a religious war, just curious.
Federal governments ranked by days spent with an acting PM (i.e. actual PM is out of the country or sick or whatever) adjusted for the term length.
Yaz, I can do that on a seat by seat basis – but there will be a fair bit of ecological fallacy messing it up. Still though, while it might not show perfectly religions vs voting trends, it will highlight how ‘other things’ are at play in the electorate that tend to cluster people together that, say, have a higher propensity to vote greens and a high propensity to be athiests.
prettyrage – I dont even know where to begin to find that data!
Dan – if I can find some timeline of industry assistance by geography that can be done.
Possum, do you have, or can you produce, a table showing the relative polling performance of the Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Howard and Rudd governments over their first year in office, both by 2PV and PPM?
I dont have all the numbers at the moment Adam, but I’ll see if I can get the polls of the old Gallup series to fill in the substantial gaps I have in the polling timeline. If I can dig them up, the polling series won’t be from the same pollster – there’ll be a few different pollsters in the 70’s and 80’s and I’ll use Newspoll for 1986 onwards.
I’m prepared to bet Rudd’s is the best first year of any of the five.
After the 5% announcement today, and seeing the below video on ABC, I have to ask Tongue in cheek, along the lines of the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow….
What is the capacity of the house of representatives chamber in shoes ? (Assume a standard foot is a size 9 and variety of footware is used)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/12/15/2446096.htm