Phone Poll Monday

Nielsen and Galaxy came out today, both having the TPP vote at 55/45 for Labor, which makes all the phone polls including Newspoll saying the same thing on the two party preferred.

The Primary vote for Nielsen comes in at 45 (down 1)/39 (steady) to the ALP while Galaxy has it at 43/40. It’s good to see Galaxy join the fray and I hope it makes a regular appearance since its historical slight relative lean toward the Coalition helps balance out the ALP relative lean we are seeing with Morgan and Essential.

There’s an Essential Report out later today meaning we can’t run the weekly Pollytrack numbers until then, but over at The Polls page there’s a real time Pollytrack, Weighted Pollytrack, Phone Poll Average and All Poll Average given at the top of the poll list. We don’t yet have a sample size for the latest Galaxy, so I’ve assumed a sample of 800 until we get that info.

The Nielsen approval ratings and preferred PM look like this.

These ratings trends differ slightly from Newspoll (conveniently seen over at the Polling Charts page) with Nielsen suggesting that Turnbull is failing to convince those that were initially undecided about his leadership to the point of slowly alienating them, while Newspoll is continuing to show slight growth in Turnbull’s satisfaction. If we compare the Nielsen/Newspoll  ratings for the Leader of the Opposition on Net Approval/Net Satisfaction we get:

Maybe it’s the interpretive difference between the words approval and satisfaction when it comes to survey respondents over Turnbull’s actions, but it’s quite unusual for Newspoll and Nielsen to diverge like this.

Something to keep an eye on in the future.

UPDATE:

Essential Report has come out and joined the 55/45 brigade , which I guess is the new black. It’s a big 4 point movement away from the ALP on the two party preferred from last week, and comes off primaries of 44(down 5)/39 (up 4) the same way.

They also have the question “Which party do you think would be best at handling each of these issues – Labor or Liberal? ” on 12 different policy areas and is worth a squiz before we delve into it tomorrow.

Elsewhere Pollbludger, LP and Party Games (make sure you read the comments as Dennis Atkins gives a heads up on more Galaxy questions appearing tomorrow in the tabloids.)