Comments on: Pollytrack November 19

By: Aristotle

Aristotle — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 04:37:16 +0000

I don’t know quite what to make of Essential Research. They are new to us here, so it will take a few years before we have a track record from them.

As for this shift in results from them, a couple more weeks of results will either wash a rogue out of the system or re-set their benchmarks alongside the other pollsters, except for Morgan, who will remain more ALP friendly.(mostly)

Until then, we will have to take the results at face value.

By: Possum

Possum — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:29:26 +0000

With Pollytrack, if we removed Essential Report, the TPP would be slightly less volatile up until around June, and about 0.75 points more favourable to the Coalition on average – with the exception of the current observation where Essential is the same as the Phone Pollsters.

If we removed Morgan Face to Face it would be a slightly larger reduction in the ALP TPP vote.

Using our regressions, Essential added about a point on to Labor and Morgan Face to Face about 1 to 1.4 points there abouts. Neither added much in the way of volatility to the low sensitivity regression line, but added nearly all of the movement to the high sensitivity line.

By: ltep

ltep — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:12:10 +0000

If we removed the EMC polling from the equation altogether would the resulting tracking lines look substantially different? I would imagine they would.