Comments on: It’s time to rethink political demographics – Part 1

By: dred

dred — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 09:39:47 +0000

Very interesting! Wondering if you looked in a similar way at Greens vs ALP and Libs in metro seats what the long term trends with respect to these (and other) key demographics might reveal? Are Green voters simply a subset of ALP for statistical purposes in this kind of analysis (of primary votes) or do they behave differently? My perspective locally (metro sydney) is that fewer green voters are actually giving preferences to ALP (where exhaustion possible) and also (to a lesser degree) fewer ALP primary voters are giving second to Greens. Waverley council would now have a Green mayor except for this for example (only 39% preference flow from ALP to Green in Hunter ward of Waverley). Interested in your analysis.

By: scorpio

scorpio — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:38:09 +0000

Possum,

I hope you can do a similar evaluation of the youth vote. ie the 18 to 30 demographic. It should make for interesting analysis & discussion.

By: Possum

Possum — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 07:21:13 +0000

Onimod – I’m sure the party pollsters and electoral navel gazers at least this specific. They have access to their own detailed tracking polls, so they can do things we we can only think about in terms of the available data.

By: It’s time to rethink political demographics - Part 2 - Pollytics

It’s time to rethink political demographics - Part 2 - Pollytics — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:11:48 +0000

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By: Rocket Rocket

Rocket Rocket — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:49:42 +0000

Fascinating stuff Possum – and looking at that article from July (been a bit too busy the last 12 months to follow everything) reminds me a bit of American Harry S. Dent’s “spending wave” demographic analysis that reasonably accurately predicted the massive stock market boom in the USA in the 1990’s.

By: scorpio

scorpio — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:10:50 +0000

I would think that the Libs are well aware of what you have identified here possum and this is why they have been behind the demonstrations of allied senior groups trying to regain that demographic.

Notice that these demo’s have taken place in metropolitan areas and have specifically been structured to gain maximum media coverage, especially TV, and to give the Opposition plentiful material to work into specifically directed questions in QT.

Also designed to get maximum coverage in evening news bulletins and current affairs type coverage. They are well aware of the potential long term loss to their voting base. I don’t know what they can do about the youth vote though. My lad, 17 & politically aware & active, tells me that amongst his fellow students that even the strong Liberal supporters can’t cop Turnbull.

This is a major problem for them. One only has to see the reception Kevin Rudd gets at high schools & Universities to understand that this could be an even bigger problem for the Libs.

By: Spam Box

Spam Box — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:00:21 +0000

Next up – we’ll take a look at young families and the ALP vote to discover something quite astonishing

But but… I wanna know now! :stamps feet:

By: onimod

onimod — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:10:22 +0000

Top work poss.
Do you think the party machines are this detailed and specific?

Also, if you’re astonished, I’m looking forward to it.

Another also – just imagine writing out a performance brief for an opposition leader based upon demography…
It’s little wonder that it’s tough finding talent to put their hand up for that job these days.
At some point it seems they’re going to have to sell 65+’s a new message – good luck with that!

By: David Richards

David Richards — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:00:00 +0000

Good news for all non-Liberals

Either the party as it is is doomed, or it has to change.. and the only real way for it to go is to the left. If it is even possible to go further right than the last government, that way lies oblivion. They could carry on as they are and slowly haemorrhage to death, or get in the real world and jettison their baggage from The Rattus Years.