Ouchpoll

Ouch.

This is our high and low sensitivity locally weighted polynomial regression fits for the Primary vote estimates of every poll taken this year.

With Newspoll and Essential Research coming in at 59/41 this week on the two party preferred (the ALP up 1 in a week with Essential and up 4 in a fortnight with Newspoll), the public seems to have given Malcolm Turnbull the finger for Christmas.

The primary vote change has been similarly hostile for Truffles with the ALP coming in at 50 with Essential (up 2 in a week) and 48 with Newspoll (up 6 in a fortnight), while the Coalition are 34 with Essential (down 1 in a week) and 35 with Newspoll (down 3 in a fortnight).

That flows in to our Pollytrack series a little bit like this:

It’s not a particularly pretty picture for the Coalition, but highlights how this wasn’t some huge move that occurred over the last 2 weeks alone, but where Labor has been grinding away at the Coalition vote since the week after Turnbull gained the leadership.

The Newspoll satisfaction ratings show a similar picture.

The low point for Rudd was Turnbull’s ascension, but now his satisfaction rating is back as it was in April.

Turnbull on the other hand is still holding up quite well.

But the key measure here is the net satisfaction dynamics with both undecided voters included and removed.

While it might look like the Turnbull leadership hasn’t been as crash hot as the headline satisfaction ratings suggest, it’s worth having a squiz at how the net satisfaction ratings for Rudd play out against the two party preferred margin for the ALP to get a bit of a grip on the dynamics at play.

Rudd’s net satisfaction started lifting dramatically in October, but there was a bit of a lag when it came to the vote estimates flowing through mirroring that satisfaction boost (which they nearly always, eventually do)– we can probably put that lag down to Turnbull. It might look bad for Truffles, but he does seem to be minimising the vote damage from a resurgent Rudd and being reasonably successful at delaying it’s full effect.

Finally, this is what the two party preferred Pollytrack swing looks like this week. The black line is the TPP vote swing from the last election and is read from the right hand axis, the bars are the number of seats such a uniform swing would deliver to the ALP and is read from the left hand axis. This is all based on the Pollytrack data.

As always, The Polls page has all of the raw vote estimate polling data and various current aggregation measures, the Pollytrack page has all the usual Pollytrack charts and the Polling Charts page has everything from vote estimates to satisfaction ratings charts for the pollsters. They’ve all been updated this morning.

Elsewhere: Pollbludger and LP and Blogocrats.