A new NSW State Newspoll was released this morning in The Oz showing a Labor primary vote of 26% with the Coalition on 43%. With a vote that low, two party preferred becomes irrelevant in an optional preferential system that NSW has at the State level – so even the notional TPP of 59/41 to the Coalition isn’t in the ballpark of just how bad it truly is.
Antony Green goes through the seat consequences of this poll should it be repeated at an election and is worth the read just to appreciate the hopelessness of NSW Labor.
The vote estimates, Better Premier, Satisfaction ratings and Net satisfaction rating charts can all be seen on the dedicated NSW State polling page – or you can just look at the NSW sidebar graphic on the right to get the raw numbers.
3 Comments
I’ve had ALP rusted-ons (people who’ve never voted differently) coming to me in psychological torment, saying even they can’t vote for them. One will vote coalition, most will go a minor party (this seems to be backed up by your data) at least one will skip the ballot entirely and cop the fine if it comes (don’t know how much of a factor this will be across the electorate).
The only issue I can see is that 2011 is a while away. A lot can happen before then, though this being NSW tehy’ll probably just dig themselves deeper.