Comments on: Chart of the Day – The ALP Political Prism http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/ Politics, elections and piffle plinking Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:53:36 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Possum http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11562 Possum Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:31:03 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11562 Catatonia, most of the data you're after is available over at the Dept of Human Services: http://www.humanservices.gov.au/dhs/publications/electorate-data/az.html George Megalogenis thinks the issues surrounding single parent payments had a good bit to do with those swings - he's probably right. Catatonia, most of the data you’re after is available over at the Dept of Human Services:
http://www.humanservices.gov.au/dhs/publications/electorate-data/az.html

George Megalogenis thinks the issues surrounding single parent payments had a good bit to do with those swings – he’s probably right.

]]> By: Catatonia http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11558 Catatonia Mon, 22 Dec 2008 15:19:47 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11558 Don't feel silly. It's something that can happen to the best of us :) By the way, are the data you used publicly available? I'd love to conjure up a similar graph, using other Centrelink payments such as Newstart (the dole), Parenting Payment (single mothers) and the Disability Support Pension. Recipients of the last two benefits were shafted by the Howard government in its last term - in the 2005 budget (IIRC), Howard and Costello tightened eligibility for both payments, by forcing single mothers to start looking for work when their youngest child turned 6 years of age (instead of 16) and restricting the DSP to those who are unable to work 15 hours a week (instead of 30). I'm wondering if this is one reason why seats with an above-average proportion of solo parents such as Macarthur, Forde, etc. saw 10%+ swings to Labor last year? Don’t feel silly. It’s something that can happen to the best of us :)

By the way, are the data you used publicly available? I’d love to conjure up a similar graph, using other Centrelink payments such as Newstart (the dole), Parenting Payment (single mothers) and the Disability Support Pension. Recipients of the last two benefits were shafted by the Howard government in its last term – in the 2005 budget (IIRC), Howard and Costello tightened eligibility for both payments, by forcing single mothers to start looking for work when their youngest child turned 6 years of age (instead of 16) and restricting the DSP to those who are unable to work 15 hours a week (instead of 30).

I’m wondering if this is one reason why seats with an above-average proportion of solo parents such as Macarthur, Forde, etc. saw 10%+ swings to Labor last year?

]]> By: Possum http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11554 Possum Sat, 20 Dec 2008 21:02:31 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11554 Catatonia. Ooops! Thanks for that (shuffles away feeling a bit silly) All fixed. Catatonia.

Ooops! Thanks for that (shuffles away feeling a bit silly)

All fixed.

]]> By: Catatonia http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11552 Catatonia Sat, 20 Dec 2008 13:00:56 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11552 Hi Possum, just something I noticed on the second graph. Pardon me if I'm mistaken, but it looks like you have the two axes vicky-verker. In the first graph, the three seats with the highest %age of FTB A recipients are Holt, Chifley and La Trobe. But on the second graph, these three seats are shown has having the highest number of Age Pension recipients, while the retiree havens of Gilmore, Lyne and Hinkler are shown as having the most FTB A beneficiaries. Apart from that, excellent graphs. The split between the inner cities (including safe ALP and safe LIB seats) and the rest of the country is what I find the most striking. Hi Possum, just something I noticed on the second graph. Pardon me if I’m mistaken, but it looks like you have the two axes vicky-verker. In the first graph, the three seats with the highest %age of FTB A recipients are Holt, Chifley and La Trobe. But on the second graph, these three seats are shown has having the highest number of Age Pension recipients, while the retiree havens of Gilmore, Lyne and Hinkler are shown as having the most FTB A beneficiaries.

Apart from that, excellent graphs. The split between the inner cities (including safe ALP and safe LIB seats) and the rest of the country is what I find the most striking.

]]> By: Possum http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11551 Possum Fri, 19 Dec 2008 23:29:02 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11551 Steve and Fredex, over the Christmas period we'll break these charts down a bit further and do it by party, so the charts will become much more user friendly. Those two new Morgan polls are a bit fluffy, we'll have a look at them later on the weekend sometime. LO, it's the way the government is using FTB A that seems to be the big thing here. George Meg has a good article that's been linked into in the post that goes through most of it., but there's a bit more as well which we'll get into when we break those charts down further. Steve and Fredex, over the Christmas period we’ll break these charts down a bit further and do it by party, so the charts will become much more user friendly. Those two new Morgan polls are a bit fluffy, we’ll have a look at them later on the weekend sometime.

LO, it’s the way the government is using FTB A that seems to be the big thing here. George Meg has a good article that’s been linked into in the post that goes through most of it., but there’s a bit more as well which we’ll get into when we break those charts down further.

]]> By: fredn http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11549 fredn Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:09:55 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11549 I think it is summed up in two words "working families". I think it is summed up in two words “working families”.

]]> By: fredex http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11548 fredex Fri, 19 Dec 2008 09:52:23 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11548 Possum Ive justy been looking at Morgan's leadership survey and I'm finding it a bit .....'confusing' will do. http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4347/ With 561 sample is it statistically credible to say how many Greens prefer person A to B for example, ditto for FF and others? Do I understand that they asked people to imagine they were an ALP voter and poll for second string ALP leader, and then asked the same people to imagine they were a Coalition voter and poll for second string Coal leader? Wear different hats? Care to comment on the survey? Possum Ive justy been looking at Morgan’s leadership survey and I’m finding it a bit …..’confusing’ will do.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4347/

With 561 sample is it statistically credible to say how many Greens prefer person A to B for example, ditto for FF and others?
Do I understand that they asked people to imagine they were an ALP voter and poll for second string ALP leader, and then asked the same people to imagine they were a Coalition voter and poll for second string Coal leader?
Wear different hats?

Care to comment on the survey?

]]> By: Labor Outsider http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11547 Labor Outsider Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:41:40 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11547 Hi Possum - I love the graphs, but can you explain in more detail how there is anything new in this information, other than presentational? Its hardly a shock that a government will direct its largesse to those parts of the electorate that maximise its chances of winning the next election. And coalition electorates have long been split along socio-economic lines. In government, the coalition has often been sustained by shared goals on social policy....and the coalition leadership buying off support in the bush with all sorts of rural largesse....In opposition, where it is harder to set the agenda, and you have no opportunity to dole out money, that coalition is harder to sustain....This government may end up being more successful than most in identifying ways to wedge the coalition, but it is hardly a new political strategy.... Hi Possum – I love the graphs, but can you explain in more detail how there is anything new in this information, other than presentational? Its hardly a shock that a government will direct its largesse to those parts of the electorate that maximise its chances of winning the next election. And coalition electorates have long been split along socio-economic lines. In government, the coalition has often been sustained by shared goals on social policy….and the coalition leadership buying off support in the bush with all sorts of rural largesse….In opposition, where it is harder to set the agenda, and you have no opportunity to dole out money, that coalition is harder to sustain….This government may end up being more successful than most in identifying ways to wedge the coalition, but it is hardly a new political strategy….

]]> By: fredex http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11546 fredex Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:17:33 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11546 I second Steve's request. Obviously I don't know who holds where as well as some. I second Steve’s request.
Obviously I don’t know who holds where as well as some.

]]> By: Steve http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/19/chart-of-the-day-the-alp-political-prism/comment-page-1/#comment-11545 Steve Fri, 19 Dec 2008 03:30:02 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3086#comment-11545 Hi Possum, any chance you could colour the points on the chart by party holding that seat? Might make the clustering a little more obvious. Hi Possum, any chance you could colour the points on the chart by party holding that seat? Might make the clustering a little more obvious.

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