Newspoll released a South Australian State poll this morning via The Oz and it’s a weird set of numbers – the raw numbers can be seen in that graphic or on the sidebar to the right.
Firstly there was a 5 point drop in the Libs primary vote and a corresponding 5 point rise in the Greens, which means there was about a 4 point shift from Liberal to Labor and then again from Labor to Green with maybe a point going straight from blue to green if these numbers followed the actual voting shift pattern that we have historically seen around the country over the last 6 years or so.
But the particularly weird thing with this poll is the political behaviour of South Australians generally on the satisfaction ratings front. The Opposition is 12 to 19 points ahead in net satisfaction terms (depending on whether the undecideds are included) but are 4 points behind in the primary vote and are at the wrong end of an 8 point two party preferred gap.
The SA Opposition actually have the highest net satisfaction rating of any State opposition in the country but are still in a seriously losing position if these polling numbers are spot on.
As always, the vote estimate charts, Better Premier and Premier and Opposition individual satisfaction ratings can all be seen over at the dedicated SA State polling page.
One Comment
I suspect that the answer to the net satisfaction puzzle is contained in the preferred-Premier graph – Rann currently leads 50-25 with 25 undecided. So despite 43% being satisfied with MHS, only 25% could actually bring themselves to say they think he’d be better than Rann.
Here’s a theory: part of Rann’s disapproval numbers come from conservatives who would be voting Liberal anyway, but part come from progressives who either vote Green or Labor. It’s considered a fairly conservative government by Labor standards, so you see the increase in the Green vote and dissatisfaction ratings – but those lefties aren’t going to prefer MHS unless it’s revealed that Rann eats babies or something. I suspect that that theory generally explains things, but the net satisfaction ratings for Rann actually improved in this set of polling at the same time as the Green vote improved, so obviously it’s not perfect.
The other point to make is that I’ve heard one or two comments to the effect that the Libs have something of a shallow bench here at the moment, and these are Opposition Leader satisfaction rather than Opposition satisfaction polls. Perhaps people think MHS is doing ok as Opposition Leader but they wouldn’t actually want the Libs in? Is that a previously observed phenomenon anywhere?