Here’s a theory: part of Rann’s disapproval numbers come from conservatives who would be voting Liberal anyway, but part come from progressives who either vote Green or Labor. It’s considered a fairly conservative government by Labor standards, so you see the increase in the Green vote and dissatisfaction ratings – but those lefties aren’t going to prefer MHS unless it’s revealed that Rann eats babies or something. I suspect that that theory generally explains things, but the net satisfaction ratings for Rann actually improved in this set of polling at the same time as the Green vote improved, so obviously it’s not perfect.

The other point to make is that I’ve heard one or two comments to the effect that the Libs have something of a shallow bench here at the moment, and these are Opposition Leader satisfaction rather than Opposition satisfaction polls. Perhaps people think MHS is doing ok as Opposition Leader but they wouldn’t actually want the Libs in? Is that a previously observed phenomenon anywhere?