As 2008 draws to a close, for the true polling tragics here we’ve seen 113 polls from the five pollsters we follow, where all 113 of them had the ALP in front with a minimum 4 point margin.
The polling for this year on both primaries and the TPP went like this:
We can break those polls down into their incidence – the percentage of time that the Coalition or the ALP received a given polling value for the year – and we can do it with the primaries, the TPP as well as the two party preferred margin:
The way to read these charts is pretty simple, just pick a vote estimate value from the bottom axis and read the percentage of time that value turned up in the polling in 2008. For example, on the two party preferred incidence chart, the most common polling result this year was a split of 58/42 to the ALP (a 16 point margin) and this happened in 18.6% of the polls in 2008.
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It seems that nice Mr Rudd is driving these polls of 112 out of 113 at 54/46 or better. I understand that the Libs have been uniformly unsuccessful with their sledging of Rudd. However, knocking him off his perch would appear to be the only strategy for the Libs to get back in the game.
An outlandishly optimistic assessment of the figures you quoted GG. I thought figures like that might have been telling the opposition that their values are shared by a consistently smaller proportion of the population sick of what the opposition believes in.
Perhaps a lock, stock and barrel rethink of what this rabble of conservatives believe in and what they stand for might bring some might be better than flailing around in ever decreasing circles, trying to win power for no stated reason.
Steve,
Rudd is Governing for the 85-90% of mainstream Australians. These are the same group that was relaxed and comfortable under Howard and the Libs. Labor got back in the political game once Rudd was elected leader and have consolidatd their lead ever since.
The Libs don’t do policy development well and besides, the reality is that they probably would have done the much same in Government as Labor e.g. GFC and ETS as Labor has done. So why bother being cute.
The reason they are so unhappy is that they have been shunted aside by Captain Rudd and never like to share the steering of SS Australia.
Opposition breeds disunity and shows up the almost schizophrenic relationships betwen various Groups like the Nationals, the Wets and Right wingers. However, as we have seen in the past, nothing brings an outbreak of universal love and goodwill on the conservative side of politics as the sniff of power.
The reality is they’ll scratch around for a new messiah and wait for the political pendulum to swing back their way. Might be waiting awhile though. In the mean time they’ll continue to throw pies at Rudd.
So Poss am i reading things right?
In the primary vote the LNP actually outpolled Labor in one poll in September?
That’s right Barney, the Nielsen poll of the 19th September had the Coalition on 42 with the ALP on 41 – for a 52/48 TPP split to Labor. All the poll results are listed chronologically at:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/polls/
At the time the Nielsen really stood out by itself.
The problem for the Libs is the very things Rudd is vulnerable to criticism on, are the things they support. To really attack Rudd, they would need to repudiate Howard era policies and embark on a new platform, then they can safely criticise Rudd’s failings. Rudd has not really been taken to task over his similarity to the immediately previous disaster of a PM.
David, I think to some extent the Liberals can not change because they are still victims of their own success at the last Federal election. They won a swag of marginal seats on the basis of incumbency, knowing what date the election would be called, having a hugh staff advantage, postal votes etc.
Had they been thoroughly thrashed and stripped of their deadwood, it would be a more focused opposition than we have seen to date. Members like Costello would have only had the option of knuckling down to work or getting out. There are far too many being paid to do nothing now in the hope that they can be something in the future. What the party needs is a good flogging in an election, and then begin the rebuilding process. I can’t see other options working for them and in 2008, these polls seem to indicate that is the conservative’s belief too.
According to these polls they are on track to achieve their ambitious rebuilding program. It will just take a while.
ah – if only Latham had won (he came close to doing so, just not close enough). Latham had a good platform (if you discount medicare gold). For that matter – had Beazley got up in ‘98 – how different Oz would be.
ah – if only Latham had won
We would have had a psycho as PM.
He wouldn’t have been the first…
Menzies, Keating, Howard
anyway – It was more his progressive rather than regressive policies.
Like bringing back corporal punishment in schools?
or how about determining policy by the response from electors sent in via email? This has to be one of the most regressive policies I’ve ever heard of. It would make populists like Huey P Long and Joh Bjelke Peterson green with envy.
The guy was unhinged. Look at what happened when the wheels fell off.
As to Howard and Menzies. i can think of a lot of pejoratives I’d use to describe them but psycho isn’t one of them.
it’s a moot issue anyhow – Beazley should have won in 98 or 01
A pity the school funding policy and others were thrown out with the bathwater you focused on
Bringing back corporal punishment is not bathwater.
it took nearly 200 years to get rid of it from our school system. It is as integral to the system as is equitable funding. It informs the way we both perceive and treat students.
And yes Beazley should have won. The tragedy of Latham is that Beazley almost singe-handedly turned what was going to be an electoral rout in 2001 into a relatively close loss which a decent leader should have been able to convert into a win in 2004. An advantage whoch Latham then proceeded to squander.