Pollytrack – End of Year Edition

The final Pollytrack for the year brings the addition of a Morgan face to face poll since last time and the Nielsen polls falling out of our five week Pollytrack window (shame on you Fairfax).

As a result, the Pollytrack primary vote estimate has jumped to a 49.6/35.6 split to the ALP with the two party preferred washing in at 59.0/41.0. As a result of Nielsen falling out of the five week window, the pooled sample size has fallen from 6132 down to 4732, which has increased the theoretical minimum size of the maximum margin of error from 1.25% out to 1.42%.

Our usual charts come in like this:

The ALP has ended the year in polling terms pretty much where it started. This new Pollytrack doesn’t affect our new Pollytrend, as the latter is recalculated after every new poll rather than on the arbitrary weekly basis that we do Pollytrack.